Air Traffic Management Concept Baseline Definition - The Boeing ...

7 NAS Concept Evaluation
7.1 Global Scenarios
Scenario writing typically involves the juxtaposition of a number of alternative futures.
These constructed images of the future may range from ‘optimistic’ to ‘pessimistic’ as
they attempt to extrapolate current nominal trends with other likely and plausible futures.
In this section, only a single NAS scenario was constructed. This single global scenario is
based on a review of some relevant references structured by six major scenario categories
that capture the many facets of NAS operations subject to possible limitations, constraints,
modifications, and shifts regarding the future ATM system envisioned for 2015. Section
2.3.1 outlines the scenario building process, including a brief description of the 13 issue
categories which, along with the six major scenario categories, organize the selected texts
drawn from the several sources listed in the Bibliography. Appendix B contains the collage
of texts cited from the Bibliography. The following is a general scenario that provides a
spectrum of potential issues which may affect the future patterns of development of the
ATM infrastructure and operation.
First, according both FAA and Boeing references, the increase of air traffic domestically
and globally is estimated to grow from 1997 to 2016 by about 5% (Boeing CMO (1997),
p. 3). This expected growth will increase domestic aircraft operations in 2008 to 31.5
million relative to 1996 (24. 0 million) (U.S. FAA Aviation Forecasts (1997), p. I-14).
Coupled to this growing traffic is its effect on the workload levels at ARTCCs. The
forecasts indicate a workload increase at an annual rate of 1.8% from 1996 to 2008. This
increased workload means that FAA en route centers are expected to handle 50.2 million
IFR aircraft by 2008 (ibid, p. I-14).
The increased traffic flows require a substantial economic investment for all categories of
infrastructure including ATC/ATM systems, airports, and feeder roads, all of which will
require government financial support. These supports may be delayed since governments
may be cash-strapped (Booz, Allen & Hamilton (1995), p. 2-29). For example, future
funding for the FAA will fall far short of what the agency needs to provide even the
current level of services, since it is projected that a budget shortfall of $12 billion exists in
the near term or from fiscal year 1997 to 2002. Such deficits promote an unfolding
scenario of increased corporatization and privatization of basic ATM services with
uncertain consequences regarding economic, safety and regulatory issues (U.S. Congress
(1996), p. 9).
Political and economic related concerns in the international context may also conflict with
the sovereignty of states. Air transport authorities have become increasingly concerned
about the regulation of international air transport. The establishment of unified regional
economic markets has invoked concerns about adverse effects on the national airlines of
non-participating states (Booz, Allen & Hamilton (1995), p. 2-135). A major ICAO
meeting in 1994 concluded that “in view of the disparities in economic and competitive
situations there is no prospect in the near future for a global multilateral agreement in the
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