Air Traffic Management Concept Baseline Definition - The Boeing ...

guidance to traffic managers and controllers on potential weather impacts on aviation
operations. Most of the actual data management, analysis and forecasting of weather
conditions is the responsibility of the NWS’s Aviation Weather Center. To assist AWC
meteorologists, FSL and NWS have been developing the Aviation Gridded Forecast
System (AGFS). The AGFS will consist of 3D gridded data sets of observed, analyzed,
and forecasted weather conditions that affect aviation. The AGFS includes software tools
that allow AWC meteorologists to prepare and distribute analyses of AIVs. More
information is needed on how the AGFS will be integrated into the analysis and
forecasting functions performed in the CWSUs and the TRACONs, and on the quality of
the gridded fields. However, a tool such as the AGFS will be needed to help manage and
provide quality control to the increasingly complex meteorological information being
produced by observing networks and analysis and forecasting tools.
5.5.3 Forecasting
The need for accurate forecasts of expected weather conditions in the terminal and en
route environments is becoming increasing acute as demand for system capacity increases.
Most aviation forecasting services are provided by the NWS through the Aviation
Weather Center, although some of the larger airlines have their own teams of
meteorologists who prepare forecasts for their areas of operation, and some private sector
firms also provide forecasting services. Figure 5.17 shows the major components of the
aviation weather forecasting system, which are described in this section.
Aviation
Weather Center
NCEP
NWP Models
Forecast
Products
ITWS
AVOSS
Figure 5.17 Aviation Weather Forecasting Function
NCEP operates a suite of numerical weather prediction models that produce forecasts of
gridded meteorological parameters that are analyzed to estimate the future locations of
storm systems, areas of precipitation, surface and aloft winds, and other conditions
affecting aviation operations. These models solve the so-called ‘primitive’ equations
describing the physics of the atmosphere, with varying degrees of sophistication in the use
of numerical integration techniques, turbulence closure schemes, hydrostatic versus nonhydrostatic
approximations, boundary conditions, horizontal and vertical resolution, and
so forth. Short-term forecasts out to 48 hours are performed using the Eta model, while
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