Airports in Cities and Regions - KIT Scientific Publishing

Forecasting night flight movements
at airports
A methodological approach
Christian Blank and Tina Wagner
Air traffic forecasts are a crucial part of the approval procedures for airport
extensions. Opponents often contest them, mainly because no different development
scenarios are considered. The recent airport extension procedures in Germany
revealed a growing concern over health impacts of flights during night time. This is
reflected in a trend towards night flight restrictions at airports between 10 pm and 6
am. In this context a methodology for the estimation of future night flight
movements at a specific airport has been developed. It builds on a detailed analysis
of past and current patterns of night activities in relevant air traffic segments (such
as cargo, mail, charter, low cost or long-haul routes) and on the general air traffic
forecast.
1 Introduction
In case of airport extensions in Germany the state departments are responsible for
the statutory approval-procedures. These procedures always contain an air traffic
forecast, provided by the airports’ operator. The forecast horizon is at least 15 years.
The opponents of airport extensions mostly criticize the forecasts results as well as
its methodology and bring it to court. Main critics are dealing with the fact, that
these forecasts do not consider scenarios of potential developments such as higher
fuel rates. For the approval-procedures only “one” estimation for the total number of
flight movements at the forecast horizon is required. This is mainly due to the fact
that all impact studies are based on the expected number of flight movements.
Preparing court hearings and justifying the planning approval notice, the state
departments often assign an independent institute with the quality assurance of
these forecasts. Having experience in this field we strongly recommend using the
scenario technique for air traffic forecasts because it leads to a better acceptance of
the forecast itself and the planning procedures. In consequence, the necessity of
further forecasts will be less likely.
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