DTIS, Volume I - Enhanced Integrated Framework (EIF)
DTIS, Volume I - Enhanced Integrated Framework (EIF)
DTIS, Volume I - Enhanced Integrated Framework (EIF)
Create successful ePaper yourself
Turn your PDF publications into a flip-book with our unique Google optimized e-Paper software.
C. ECONOMIC TRENDS<br />
Buoyant GDP growth of up to 6 – 9 per cent year driven by investment in the tourism<br />
sector with negative or very low levels of inflation is a distinctive feature of the economy<br />
in recent years. Significant progress has also been achieved in human and social<br />
development over the past two decades. Prudent macroeconomic and public investment<br />
policies as well as a largely favourable external environment has facilitated this progress,<br />
lifting the Maldives from being one of the 20 poorest countries in the 1970s to one that<br />
shares many characteristics of a lower middle-income country today. The GDP per<br />
capita was Rf 30,733 (US$ 2,401 equivalent) in 2004. As a result, the Maldives’<br />
graduation from LDC status is a real possibility. However, the government would prefer<br />
to delay graduation so as not to lose foreign assistance – including participation in the<br />
<strong>Integrated</strong> <strong>Framework</strong> – that is critical to the country’s recovery from the divesting<br />
tsunami that hit the Maldives and other countries in the region on 26 th December 2004.<br />
Although loss of human life was minimal, it is estimated that the loss to the economy<br />
caused by the tsunami is around 62 per cent of GDP, with full recovery not expected<br />
before 2008. It is understood that the United Nations Economic and Social Council<br />
(ECOSOC) is sensitive to the government’s need for a carefully managed graduation<br />
programme with appropriate transition arrangements.<br />
Though liberalization of the economy is advanced and economic growth rates are<br />
nominally high, a significant proportion of the jobs created have gone to foreign workers<br />
due to rigidities in the local labour market. For a variety of reasons that is elaborated<br />
upon in the <strong>DTIS</strong>, relatively high levels of unemployment and underemployment are a<br />
distinctive characteristic of the economy. Flexibility in macro-economic policy is<br />
somewhat limited as the country’s currency, the Rufiyaa, is pegged to the US dollar.<br />
Recent developments have had a negative impact on trade and economic performance. In<br />
particular, there has been a dramatic change in 2005 following the tsunami. This resulted<br />
in a downturn in the tourism sector which contributes substantially both to GDP and to<br />
foreign exchange earnings. In addition, the garment and apparel industry literally<br />
collapsed during 2004 as the end of the Multi-Fibre Agreement (MFA) quota system<br />
approached. Rising oil prices throughout 2005 and during the first half of 2006 has<br />
brought about a downward spiral in the terms of trade. The boom years that Maldives<br />
has experienced in recent years up to 2004 may now be at an end. There is therefore an<br />
urgent need to address this situation so that measures can be taken to mitigate the<br />
problems that are now being experienced. To this extent, the <strong>DTIS</strong> exercise for the<br />
Maldives has been more than timely.<br />
xi