Scenario planning – how to find the right strategy at ... - Roland Berger

Study 9
What approach can guide companies
to success in uncertain times
Changes in the macro environment outside of a company's
industry, such as political, social, ecological, economic or
technological developments, often play a decisive role in the
success of the company's business model. A holistic perspective
is therefore strongly recommended to incorporate macroenvironment
factors in a flexible strategic plan.
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants collaborated with HHL Leipzig
to design a scenario planning methodology that can give companies
faster and earlier warning about important macroenvironment
events, trends and changes. This analytical method
works like radar to track movements far beyond a company and
its industry. The methodology can detect "weak signal" influences
that typically only become evident in the long run. "Blind spots"
that are hidden in companies preoccupied by internal perspectives
become transparent. To develop this holistic view, our scenario
planning analytic techniques take into account the opinions of
many internal and external stakeholders.
Scenario planning is an appropriate tool for global companies in
all industries – whether automotive or pharmaceuticals, manufacturing
or services, aviation or energy utilities – that wish to
position themselves successfully in emerging and developing
countries.
Our method for developing key future scenarios involves
five core steps.