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Scenario planning – how to find the right strategy at ... - Roland Berger

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Study 21<br />

Trying <strong>to</strong> identify business opportunities in an uncertain future is<br />

a <strong>to</strong>ugh challenge. But <strong>the</strong> scenario <strong>planning</strong> designed by HHL<br />

Leipzig and <strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> helps str<strong>at</strong>egic planners and decisionmakers<br />

identify <strong>the</strong> most relevant future scenarios in specific<br />

industries and regions.<br />

Each of <strong>the</strong> four scenarios described for <strong>the</strong> global manufacturing<br />

industry represents an extreme vision of <strong>the</strong> future. The world may<br />

never resemble any of <strong>the</strong>se positions exactly, but <strong>the</strong> trends and<br />

issues identified in each will shape <strong>the</strong> eventual outcomes.<br />

Industries in any region could exhibit characteristics from different<br />

scenarios depending on <strong>how</strong> protectionism and resource intensity<br />

affect industry-specific dynamics. Companies from developed<br />

n<strong>at</strong>ions will succeed if <strong>the</strong>y can identify opportunities th<strong>at</strong> cut<br />

across several scenarios and, with a little tweaking, <strong>find</strong> str<strong>at</strong>egies<br />

<strong>to</strong> capture <strong>the</strong> full potential of any possible scenario.

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