Scenario planning – how to find the right strategy at ... - Roland Berger

Study 19
Capitalism goes green with low resource
intensity and low protectionism
Developed economies pursue strong market opportunities in a
low protectionist environment conducive to foreign direct
investment and knowledge transfer. There is high uptake in the
renewable energy sector, which benefits developed country
providers and equipment manufacturers. Micro energy generation
technologies are widespread. With the required infrastructure
in place, electric vehicles are prevalent. Western companies have
the opportunity to export their car technologies to emerging
markets. Novel materials are designed for specific uses and
environments. Additive manufacturing moves out of niche
applications into mainstream manufacturing. Increased use of
steel and glass, especially in buildings, lowers demand for cement.
A potentially large market develops for Western construction
companies. The regional winners will be Western Europe, North
America, Japan, Brazil, India and China.
This future also sees an end to rising energy demand as fossil fuel
power generation declines. Traditional Middle East fossil fuel
economies are the losers in this scenario. Western dependence
on oil-exporting countries such as Iran decreases significantly.
Green capitalism stresses the mining industry as substitutes are
found and consumers lobby against excessive and destructive
mining practices.
Complying with environmental standards to satisfy
regulations and consumer requirements
Setting up local R&D facilities to fulfill customer needs
and ensure know-how transfer
Securing access to well-educated personnel to develop
innovative products and solutions, such as lightweight
materials and biodegradable components
Instituting a green product life cycle, including a
green global supply chain
Adopting a modular manufacturing philosophy with
made-to-order production