Scenario planning – how to find the right strategy at ... - Roland Berger

Study 17
A polarized world with high resource
intensity and high protectionism
Enterprises in resource-rich countries prosper at the expense of
large multinationals. This shift in economic power leaves resourcepoor
economies such as Western Europe and Japan scrambling
to source raw materials. Countries with natural resources focus on
production technologies, while resource-poor countries design
and develop alternative materials. Resource-rich regions,
especially those with large regional markets and technologically
advanced economies, flourish. These include North America, China,
India, Russia, Brazil, Australia and the Middle East. But Japan
and Western Europe lose out in this future vision because high
protectionism inhibits trade in resources.
Developing regions' demand for steel and cement soars as
countries pursue ambitious agendas to modernize infrastructures
and catch up with the developed world. Substantial chemical
production shifts to China, Russia and the Middle East as
manufacturers move closer to customers and markets. Due to
high protectionism, developed nation manufacturers find it
difficult to install production facilities in the new emerging
markets.
Energy remains a core industry dominated by fossil fuels. The
mining sector invests in underground extraction as minerals
become harder and harder to find. The automotive sector suffers
from market fragmentation, and protectionism signals the end
of global brand cars like the Ford Focus. European manufacturers
lose significant market share as emerging countries focus on
regional car brands.
Securing access to natural resources
(or cooperating with organizations for indirect access)
Optimizing costs by exploiting resources cost-effectively
to ensure competitively priced products
Restructuring operations (incl. small-scale plants)
to supply local/regional markets
Forging strategic relations with local emerging market
suppliers to provide technologies and services for
the booming infrastructure sector
Taking marketing actions to establish a regional brand
among emerging market suppliers