Scenario planning – how to find the right strategy at ... - Roland Berger

Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
An antagonistic age of low resource
intensity and high protectionism
In this vision of the future, countries with abundant raw materials
focus on production technologies, while those without, such
as those in Western Europe, design or develop alternatives. Novel
materials are designed for specific applications and scientists
create a new periodic table of nanomaterials. Industrialized and
high-tech regions of Western Europe, North America and Australia
benefit most from these developments because they can leverage
and exchange their valuable expertise and skills for commodities.
This defines trade flows with such emerging markets as China and
Brazil. Winning industries include energy, especially those
companies that can produce green energy, due to rising demand
for renewables from equipment manufacturers. Micro-generation
and co-generation technologies are particularly important.
High protectionist barriers make it very difficult for European hightech
companies to penetrate emerging markets. The automotive
industry sees a boost in demand for electric cars. But as cars are
no longer sold globally, major car exporting nations like Germany
and the US lose substantial market share across Asia and Latin
America. Resource constraints and environmental protection hit
the cement and energy sectors particularly hard.
Complying with regional environmental standards
to satisfy regulations
Securing access to natural resources
(or cooperating with organizations for indirect access)
Leveraging expert know-how and innovative
technologies to develop substitute materials
Attracting and retaining well-educated human capital
with emerging market expertise
Forging strategic trade relations with local
emerging market suppliers