Scenario planning â how to find the right strategy at ... - Roland Berger
Scenario planning â how to find the right strategy at ... - Roland Berger
Scenario planning â how to find the right strategy at ... - Roland Berger
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<strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> Str<strong>at</strong>egy Consultants<br />
An antagonistic age of low resource<br />
intensity and high protectionism<br />
In this vision of <strong>the</strong> future, countries with abundant raw m<strong>at</strong>erials<br />
focus on production technologies, while those without, such<br />
as those in Western Europe, design or develop altern<strong>at</strong>ives. Novel<br />
m<strong>at</strong>erials are designed for specific applic<strong>at</strong>ions and scientists<br />
cre<strong>at</strong>e a new periodic table of nanom<strong>at</strong>erials. Industrialized and<br />
high-tech regions of Western Europe, North America and Australia<br />
benefit most from <strong>the</strong>se developments because <strong>the</strong>y can leverage<br />
and exchange <strong>the</strong>ir valuable expertise and skills for commodities.<br />
This defines trade flows with such emerging markets as China and<br />
Brazil. Winning industries include energy, especially those<br />
companies th<strong>at</strong> can produce green energy, due <strong>to</strong> rising demand<br />
for renewables from equipment manufacturers. Micro-gener<strong>at</strong>ion<br />
and co-gener<strong>at</strong>ion technologies are particularly important.<br />
High protectionist barriers make it very difficult for European hightech<br />
companies <strong>to</strong> penetr<strong>at</strong>e emerging markets. The au<strong>to</strong>motive<br />
industry sees a boost in demand for electric cars. But as cars are<br />
no longer sold globally, major car exporting n<strong>at</strong>ions like Germany<br />
and <strong>the</strong> US lose substantial market share across Asia and L<strong>at</strong>in<br />
America. Resource constraints and environmental protection hit<br />
<strong>the</strong> cement and energy sec<strong>to</strong>rs particularly hard.<br />
Complying with regional environmental standards<br />
<strong>to</strong> s<strong>at</strong>isfy regul<strong>at</strong>ions<br />
Securing access <strong>to</strong> n<strong>at</strong>ural resources<br />
(or cooper<strong>at</strong>ing with organiz<strong>at</strong>ions for indirect access)<br />
Leveraging expert know-<strong>how</strong> and innov<strong>at</strong>ive<br />
technologies <strong>to</strong> develop substitute m<strong>at</strong>erials<br />
Attracting and retaining well-educ<strong>at</strong>ed human capital<br />
with emerging market expertise<br />
Forging str<strong>at</strong>egic trade rel<strong>at</strong>ions with local<br />
emerging market suppliers