Scenario planning – how to find the right strategy at ... - Roland Berger

Study 15
F6
Four major future scenarios for the global
manufacturing industry
High protectionism
Protectionism
(incl. trade blocs)
Compliance with green
regulations but no level
playing field
Customer-driven mfg.
aligned with domestic
demand
Low resource intensity
I
Antagonistic
age
II
Polarized
world
High resource intensity
Globalization restrained
by national interests
Poor compliance with
green/waste regulations
Manufacturing close
to demand
Free movement
of goods and ideas
Collective emphasis
on sustainability and
waste reduction
Modular mfg. with madeto-order
products
IV
Green
capitalism
III
Squandering
society
Free trade, incl. threats
of dumping
Low sustainability
awareness – focus on
personal utility
Mass production with
homogeneous products
Source: Roland Berger
Low protectionism
Matrix dimension: protectionism
Protectionism refers to market-distorting mechanisms, such as
duties, tariffs and foreign ownership restrictions that nations and
regions apply to advance their own trade interests and economic
agendas. These techniques seek to preserve critical resources and
can extend to intellectual property, patent protection and, more
dramatically, industrial espionage.
These two key uncertainties, protectionism and resource
intensity, let us explore comprehensive scenario storylines. We
will now consider four plausible scenarios by validating trends and
describing scenario dimensions in more detail, with particular
attention to how companies in developed countries might enter
emerging markets.
Impact of the protectionism dimension
Economic protectionism significantly influences global markets,
and frequently complicates production and logistics.