Scenario planning – how to find the right strategy at ... - Roland Berger

Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
F5
Scenario building process following
a step-by-step approach
Long list of relevant
uncertainties
Uncertain
Yes Cluster by
Yes Build scenario
Trends
Yes
common
matrix using key
stable in
theme
uncertainties
each future
Move to trend
No No No
Check importance
of "un-clustered"
uncertainty
Important uncertainty
Re-cut dimensions
Re-cut common
themes & scenario
dimensions
Source: Roland Berger
We found that resource intensity and economic protectionism are
the major key uncertainties likely to have the largest impact
across the entire industrial sector. These uncertainties become
the scenario matrix axes pictured in figures 5 and 6.
Matrix dimension: resource intensity
Resource intensity refers to the level of natural resource
consumption, such as the use of metals or water. Government
subsidies and regulations can substantially determine an
in dustrial economy's resource intensity, and consumer pre f-
erences for green and sustainable products play a role as well.
Impact of the resource intensity dimension
Resource intensity exerts considerable influence on product
development, production processes and end-product handling.
New alternative materials and more economical production
technologies may ease future resource constraints. But this
possibility doesn't negate the substantial historical and continuing
investment in large-scale manufacturing using conventional
technologies and energy sources.