Scenario planning – how to find the right strategy at ... - Roland Berger

Study 11
2. Selecting
stakeholders
3. Conducting
the survey
Scenario planning can help companies better anticipate how
macro-environment events could affect future performance and
business opportunities. A key initial step is to canvass the views
and opinions of the most important internal stakeholders, such
as board members, top executives, key strategic and managerial
staff, and industry experts. When assessing emerging country
markets, we also identify appropriate external stakeholders and
market experts, such as politicians, members of the chamber of
commerce or local customers and suppliers. Identifying and
accessing the most knowledgeable individuals may not proceed
as efficiently as in familiar or advanced markets, but their voices
are critically important. It's also advisable to interview people
who work at competitors. One leading German electronics group,
for example, always attempts to talk with local competitors' staff
before launching operations in a newly industrializing country.
Plant visits can also offer valuable insights into local conditions.
In our survey, we approach a broad range of stakeholders and
generally 40 to 50 respondents participate.
To illustrate how we conduct the survey and apply its findings to
create key scenarios, we'll refer to the previously mentioned
global manufacturing industry study. We start by using Roland
Berger's "360° stakeholder feedback questionnaire" to identify
those factors most likely to affect the global manufacturing
industry. First, we list influencing factors along the so-called STEEP
dimensions – Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and
Political/legal – and develop a questionnaire about them. We then
distribute this questionnaire to internal stakeholders (across
functions) and external experts (e.g. from local industry, think
tanks, academia, etc.) across critical manufacturing sectors
and geographical locations. The respondents identify 40 to 50
separate influencing factors, which are then clustered in a second
survey to score each factor in terms of two key criteria:
Impact – How significant
is the influencing factor
in a global context
Certainty – What is the
probability the influencing
factor will occur