Caspian Report - Issue: 07 - Spring 2014

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Radu Dudau 92 Romania’s Energy Strategy Options: Current Trends in Eastern Europe’s Natural Gas Markets 1 Radu Dudau Director of the Energy Policy Group and Associate Professor, Bucharest University
The year 2020 stands out as a deadline of sorts for achieving Romania’s strategic objectives. Geology and geopolitics are the main factors in shaping national and regional strategic options, though domestic policy elements also come into play. Introduction Romania’s most important foreign energy policy project, the Nabucco gas pipeline, collapsed in June 2013 as the rival Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) won out in the bidding war to transport Azerbaijani gas to the EU. Hence, the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) will link the Caspian Basin to Southern Italy via Turkey, Greece, Albania and the Adriatic Sea. This paper reviews Romania’s prospective new sources of primary energy, both internal and external. The year 2020 stands out as a deadline of sorts for achieving Romania’s strategic objectives. However, as argued, each of these is shadowed by considerable uncertainty. Geology and geopolitics are the main factors in shaping national and regional strategic options, though domestic policy elements also come into play. Before turning to an analysis of those determinants, it will be useful to have a brief overview of the Romanian oil and gas sector. According to BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy (2013), in 2012 Romania’s proven reserves amounted to 100 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas (a fifth of the 1992 level) and 100 million tons (mt) of oil (half the 1992 level). 2 Romania produces 10.9 bcm of natural gas annually and consumes 13.5 bcm. The yearly crude oil production is 4.1 mt against a consumption of 8.8 mt. The aggregated depletion rate of hydrocarbon reserves is 10% per year, meaning that without supplementary sources, Romania’s import dependence will grow from less than 20% at present to 50% in about ten years. The East European gas market is quasi-monopolistic, dominated by Gazprom’s supply and infrastructure. The prices that East European 93 CASPIAN REPORT, sprıng 2014 1. The present paper is an expanded and updated version of an article published in Romanian in the 7 Jan. 2014 issue of 22. 2. BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy (2013), pp. 6, 20. BP’s data squares relatively well with that of Romania’s Agency for Natural Resources (ANRM), quoted in Gândul (30 Dec. 2013)
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Page 126 and 127: MUbarIz Hasanov 124 Some Remarks on
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Caspian Report - Issue: 07 - Spring 2014

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