Caspian Report - Issue: 07 - Spring 2014

AntonIo SIleo
90
emerge as a significant new transportation
fuel over the next years,
both for the maritime sector and for
heavy duty road vehicles. According
to AIEE, the use of natural gas as a
fuel for ferries, for example, assuming
the use of 276 ferries powered
by LNG by 2030, would lead to an
increase of approximately 1 bcm of
natural gas in demand.
5. Final remarks
TAP will bring additional import capacity
to Italy of up to 20 bcm/year
once phase II is at full speed. This capacity
will face shrinking consumption
(especially on the industrial and
power generation side) and a more
volatile and unpredictable demand.
However, the 2010 European Commission
regulation security of supply
emphasises the importance of
protecting consumers again disruption.
Given the increasing political
tensions in Russia and Ukraine, it is
important to consider whether TAP
can truly play a role in assuring supply,
as it stated in the National Energy
Strategy (SEN). Looking at Italy’s
past experiences, it is difficult to
argue that TAP alone will be able to
provide additional gas in the event of
a major interruption coinciding with
a demand peak. It can, however, improve
supply conditions to the soonto-be-build
storage infrastructures,
especially in the event of a structural
reduction in imports from one of the
exporting countries.
Aside from the security and the economic
perspectives, environmental
impacts are anticipated in two cases.
First, it is at a debate (though at its
initial phase) whether a possible
conversion of the Ilva steel plant
in Taranto from a coal-based plant
to a natural gas-based one, is economically
feasible. It is estimated
that such an intervention will significantly
reduce the plant’s harmful
emissions, which currently cause
production to be heavily limited (i.e.
it would be allowed to return to full
production capacity). Second, from