Caspian Report - Issue: 07 - Spring 2014

Frank Umbach
66
Many of the shale gas fields in Europe are
situated in areas where the geology makes it
much harder to extract than in the U.S.
exploitation of their own unconventional
gas resources. Others however
have adopted a moratorium (Bulgaria,
Czech Republic) or even a ban
on the fracking technology (France)
and the production of shale gas due
to perceived environmental risks.
Against this background, the article
analyses the different policies in regard
to unconventional gas in the
EU-member states, some of which
are in favor of shale gas production
(Poland, the United Kingdom, Romania,
Lithuania and Spain) and some
of which have adopted (temporary)
moratoriums (Germany, Bulgaria) or
even a ban (France).
Europe’s Unconventional
Gas Resources and the
Energy Policies of its
Member States
While initial assessments of Europe’s
unconventional gas potential
were relatively skeptical and conservative,
Europe has depositories
of significant unconventional gas resources
with estimated total recoverable
reserves of 33-38 tcm. Reserves
in some states are now thought to
be much larger than previously estimated,
and in others, there is growing
concern over the market dominance
of the U.S. Some are also keen
to break their dependence on Russian
conventional gas. In June 2013
the EIA published a new worldwide
assessment of unconventional gas
resources, which has added nine
more countries to the total number
of countries with technically recoverable
shale gas resources. This
number now stands at 41. For Europe,
some country estimates have
been increased, while others have
been reduced. Worldwide, the EIA
has estimated 10% more shale gas
resources in comparison with its previous
estimates of 2011.
Many of the shale gas fields in Europe
are situated in areas where the
geology makes it much harder to extract
than in the U.S. They are also
in places with much higher population
densities, and their service industries
and infrastructure for the
industry are much less developed.
But the perceived risks are often
overestimated, not very different to
conventional gas drilling and often
not related to the fracturing process
itself.
The IEA has remained cautious and
has estimated that Europe’s unconventional
gas production by 2035
may reach not more than 20 bcm by
2035 due to the unclear conditions,
specifically, to what extent social and
environmental concerns will lead
to the tightening of the regulatory
framework at the EU level.
New geological analyses in Germany
and Great Britain have confirmed
the historical experiences of fossil
fuels, whereby at the beginning of
their findings and exploration the
estimates of reserves and resources
go up for a longer time alongside of
using new technologies for discovering
and exploration of fossil fuels before
they are decreasing after having
received their peak estimates and
production levels.