Caspian Report - Issue: 07 - Spring 2014

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Mehmet AkIf Okur 60 The steps that Obama tried to take in this regard during the early years of his presidency failed due to the power of the Israel lobby. Netanyahu’s active dissident behaviour during his campaign for the second term was unprecedented in the history of U.S.-Israel relations. But still, the U.S. government has not given up. This process, the end of which remains difficult to predict, has the potential to yield crucial results with regard to U.S.-Iran relations beyond nuclear negotiations. The Obama administration’s policy of forcing Iran to transform through economic sanctions is based on a prudent strategy that keeps pragmatic cooperation opportunities at hand, using professional and clever diplomatic language and ‘back doors’ ajar. The architecture of this strategy not only increases the cost of The steps that Obama tried to take in this regard during the early years of his presidency failed due to the power of the Israel lobby. avoiding negotiations, but also rewards actions taken toward reconciliation. In particular, the shared understanding of the opportunities offered by the Syrian civil war to Al Qaeda affiliates, the two parties found a way to build a common approach toward the region. ISIS’s activities in Ambar have brought the U.S., Iraq, and Iran together, and have given clues about future possibilities for cooperation. However, it remains unclear which of these alternative scenarios will become real - collaboration or conflict. Thus, the consequences of both possibilities for the Iranian system should be kept in mind. The highest priority for the dominant factions in Iran is to ensure the continuity of the regime to which they are tied, through ideological but also material interests. When we examine the possible scenarios, we can map out the scenario as follows. Signing an agreement after the nuclear negotiations will not only relieve Iran economically but also enable it to further develop its relations with the West in the future. Thanks to foreign investments and increased production triggered by technology, the rising level of national welfare will alleviate the social and economic problems that provide political ammunition for the opposition. However, that interaction will raise the demand for certain rights, particularly among minority groups that regard themselves as outside the power centre. This climate will heighten the impact of the West’s criticisms of Iran’s human rights violations, and could give rise to a future where contradictions within the regime are further questioned. In this case, while the dynamics that support the reformist movement in Iran are increasingly potent, it is likely that minority rights will become a flashpoint, with Turks, Arabs, Kurds and Baluchs expressing their identity-related demands more loudly. 17 Among these developments, the most important one is the 17. For a study emphasizing the importance of the minority issue for Iran’s future, see Rasmus Christian Elling, Minorities in Iran: Nationalism and Ethnicity after Khomeini, Palgrave Macmillan, 2013.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu criticized recent U.S. policy towards Iran under Obama administration. strengthening opposition based on different ethnic references among various Turkish groups that constitute less than one-third of the population. Sectarian identifications will lead to cumulative reactions against the regime, the erosion of national identity, and a tendency toward secularisation. Further questions for consideration include ‘the identity competition’ which emerged with the increasing Persian emphasis on secularization in Iran, and the attraction of Iran’s increasingly prosperous neighbours - Turkey and Azerbaijan. 18 If nuclear negotiations are suspended, it is likely that relations between Iran and the West will become even more strained. If sanctions continue along certain lines, economic problems and social unrest will be sustained. This scenario will increase the pressure on the oppo- If nuclear negotiations are suspended, it is likely that relations between Iran and the West will become even more strained. sition due to increasing unrest in the future, and will increase the tendency toward bipolarization and radicalisation. Tension will accumulate on the fault line between the main opposition and the regime, and the alienation of ethnic/ religious minorities will accelerate. The short-term success of coercive measures to suppress these various elements of unrest will create a more divided country in the medium and long-term. Identifying high factors will be triggered by this massive potential for instability is a concern for not only Iran but also many international actors, particularly its immediate geographical neighbours. 61 CASPIAN REPORT, SPRING <strong>2014</strong> 18. Conducted studies indicate that political conscious based on ethnic identity is strengthening in Azerbaijani Turks. For example, see Emil Souleimanov, Kamil Pikal ve Josef Kraus, “The Rise of Nationalism Among Iranian Azerbaijanis: A Step Toward Iran’s Disintegration”, MERIA Journal, 2013, Vol. 17 <strong>Issue</strong> 1, p.1-23.
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CASPIAN Report 2 The urgent need to
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emın akhundzada 112 markets. Given
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emın akhundzada 114 First, it shou
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FatIh Ozbay 116 Discussions about V
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FatIh Ozbay 118 The Black Sea is a
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FatIh Ozbay 120 these two countries
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FatIh Ozbay 122 Montreux is quite s
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MUbarIz Hasanov 124 Some Remarks on
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Turkey will be USD 37 billion highe
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Caspian Report - Issue: 07 - Spring 2014

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