Caspian Report - Issue: 07 - Spring 2014

cessful are actually pursuing their
desire to gain a greater share in the
economic wealth that will follow.
There are similarities between their
benefits and the international actors
at the table. The other side of this
equation is the interests of the given
system and the expectations in case
the negotiations fail.
Khamenei is the most influential person
in the Iranian power matrix, and
he remains at the centre of all the
power balancing. The reason he supports
nuclear negotiations lies in the
internal and external dynamics he
faces. With the events of 2009, the
opposition acquired political energy
through public support; this entailed
a process of alienation to the regime.
These events should have been managed
before they reached a devastating
point. 14 It was impossible to do
this without shedding the burden of
economic sanctions. The increasing
influence of the groups who mobilised
against Khatami and Ahmadinejad
should have been managed
before they became a threat. 15 Moreover,
the Obama administration’s desire
to reduce U.S. engagement in the
Middle East extended the bargaining
ground. It should be recalled that
there was an expectation that following
its withdrawal from Iraq, the U.S.
would seek to establish pragmatic
collaboration with Iran rather than
chasing a regime change. In this way,
Rouhani - famous for his pragmatism
despite his position at the core of the
regime- has found a way to meet the
needs and expectations in question.
Khamenei is the most influential person
in the Iranian power matrix, and he
remains at the centre of all the power
balancing.
On the U.S. side, the vision and policy
changes that have occurred under
the Obama government play a major
role in today’s structure. Firstly,
the U.S. government tried to develop
a new perspective for the Middle
East while shifting the foreign policy
axis to Asia, and started to implement
projects to end its energy dependence
on the region. 16 Then it
dealt with the Israeli security issue
in a way that the Israeli right wing
did not appreciate. According to
Washington, signing a peace agreement
with Palestine in the evolving
Middle East will not only ensure Israel’s
security, but also pave the way
for its rise in the region. The political
psychology based on the tension
between religious sects - which escalated
with the Syrian civil war - increased
Israel’s room for manoeuvre.
If Israel were to sign a peace agreement,
it would find new allies within
regional balances. Moreover, a possible
agreement would facilitate Iran’s
return to the system.
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CASPIAN REPORT, SPRING 2014
14.
For the “Green Movement” in Iran and its consequences, see Hamid Dabashi, The Green
Movement in Iran, Transaction Publishers, 2011.
15.
For the thesis claiming that the increasing power of the Revolutionary Guards in Iran can change
the regime in the country, see Ali Alfoneh, Iran Unveiled: How the Revolutionary Guards Is
Transforming Iran from Theocracy into Military Dictatorship, AEI Press, 2013.
16.
Robert D. Blackwill and Meghan L. O’Sullivan, “The Geopolitical Consequences of the Shale
Revolution”, Foreign Affairs, March/April 2014.