Caspian Report - Issue: 07 - Spring 2014

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AHMET YUKLEYEN 16 The second big challenge in stabilising the Afghan economy is the opium trade. The 2013 World Drug Report highlighted that Afghanistan accounted for 74 per cent of the world’s illicit opium production in 2012. 30 The global area under poppy cultivation rose by 15 per cent in 2012, driven largely by increases in Afghanistan. Global production, however, fell by almost 30 per cent, mainly as a result of poor yields in Afghanistan owing to adverse weather conditions. Moreover, there are nearly 1 million Afghans affected by drug use — one of the world’s highest levels of addiction — and only 10 per cent receiving any form of treatment. In the midst of this gloomy picture, there are two glimpses of hope for the Afghan economy: energy and youth. On July 7 th , Afghanistan became the fifty-fourth member of the Energy Charter Treaty. On July 9 th , progress was made on the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project with a contract signed in Ashgabat between Afghanistan and Turkmenistan on the sale and purchase of gas. On July 13 th in Kyrgyzstan, a meeting of the Foreign Ministers’ Council of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization reaffirmed support to Afghanistan as an “independent, peaceful, neutral and prosperous state, free from terrorism and drug-related crime.” 31 The central role of the United Nations in international efforts to improve the situation in Afghanistan was also underlined. Under the Istanbul Process, regional technical groups on all six of the agreed confidence-building measures held meetings. Human capital is the most valued type of capital in today’s high-tech global economy. Afghanistan’s new generation—tolerant and talented— is the future of this country. This new generation is full of the energy and resources required to tackle its country’s challenges. 32 As Afghanistan navigates the complex road ahead, these aspirations and voices must be addressed. Global Challenges: Jihadi Salafism, Al-Qaeda, and the Taliban The uncertainty in Afghanistan’s future brings global as well as national challenges because of the affinity among Jihadi Salafism, Al-Qaeda, and the Taliban. With a degree of simplification, it can be claimed that Jihadi Salafism is the bonding ideology between Al-Qaeda and the Taliban. This means that if the Taliban gains ground in Afghanistan, Al-Qaeda can regain footing in this part of the world. Jihadi Salafis are already a global movement, but they gain 30. United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (2013) Afghanistan: Mid-Year Report 2013. Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict. P. 1. http://unama.unmissions.org. Retrieved on Feb 10, 2014. 31. United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (2013) Afghanistan: Mid-Year Report 2013. Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict. P. 1. http://unama.unmissions.org. Retrieved on Feb 10, 2014. 32. Graeme Smith, Seth G. Jones, Nader Nadery, Clare Lockhart, Director, and Daniel S. Markey (2013) “Prospects for Afghanistan in 2014” Dec. 18. http://www.cfr.org/afghanistan/prospectsafghanistan-2014/p32094. Retrieved on Feb. 18, 2014.
traction in places where they can train new recruits. Failed states such as Somalia and Syria provide fertile ground. If Afghanistan becomes a safe haven for Jihadi Salafists once again, this would be especially significant, because Al-Qaeda (as the spearhead for Jihadi Salafism) began here. If Jihadi Salafism is understood as the common denominator of Al- Qaeda and the Taliban, the potential danger here is clear. Jihadi Salafism The Arabic term Salaf literally means predecessors. Salafism claims that “true Islam” is based on (i) a literalist interpretation of the Quran and Hadith, the sayings of the Prophet Muhammad; (ii) a puritanical approach to traditional Islamic practices, rejecting them as bid’a, cultural innovations, that adulterate “pure” Islam (e.g. celebrating the birth of Prophet Muhammad and visiting the tombs of Sufi masters); and (iii) an exclusivist conception of religious truth and salvation. Salafists claim that only their interpretation of Islam can bring salvation. They often quote the hadith, sayings of Prophet Muhammad according to which Muslims will divide into seventy factions at the end of days, and only one group will be saved. They believe they are this group. Salafism calls on followers to purge Islam of cultural and mystical traditions and to reassert tawhid, the unity of God. The Salafist conception of tawhid is pitted against Sufi emphasis on the role of a master to guide one’s spiritual journey to God. The puritanical practice of Salafism The uncertainty in Afghanistan’s future brings global as well as national challenges because of the affinity among Jihadi Salafism, Al-Qaeda, and the Taliban. is based a rejection of all Islamic interpretations and practices that are not based on direct, literal references to the Quran and Hadith. These rejected practices are known as bid’a, innovations, that lead Muslims astray. They are particularly critical of Sufism, which involves mystical rituals, sometimes music, and guidance by spiritual masters. This is considered shirk, a violation of God’s unity. The Salafists are exclusivist because they reject all other interpretations of Islam. This exclusivism ranges from calling themselves “Ahl al-najat” (People of Salvation), indicating they are the only group that will be saved on Judgment Day, to outward rejection of all who do not follow their path as apostate, takfir. The literalist, puritanical, and exclusivist Salafist discourse provides a “simple and straightforward” understanding of Islam, which comforts those seeking certitude without questioning at the expense of other Muslims, considered to be misguided at best, and apostates at worst. The Salafists underline the differences in their discourse with the other Islamic interpretations in order to recruit more followers from other Islamic organizations. On the one hand, this attitude wins them new followers because they appear non-compromising and “authentic” with their emphasis on learning Arabic and dress code, which includes 17 CASPIAN REPORT, sprIng 2014
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Page 4 and 5: CASPIAN Report 2 The urgent need to
Page 6 and 7: caspian CASPIAN Report 4 06 AHMET Y
Page 8 and 9: AHMET YUKLEYEN 6 Afghanistan’s Un
Page 10 and 11: AHMET YUKLEYEN 8 In Afghanistan’s
Page 12 and 13: AHMET YUKLEYEN 10 want to face the
Page 14 and 15: AHMET YUKLEYEN 12 In short, ANF has
Page 16 and 17: US President Barack Obama holds a b
Page 20 and 21: AHMET YUKLEYEN 18 beards and long t
Page 22 and 23: Anti-war demonstrators rally near t
Page 24 and 25: Matteo Verda 22 CONTRIBUTION OF Tra
Page 26 and 27: Matteo Verda 24 TAP will be a 760 k
Page 28 and 29: SHAREHOLDER STRUCTURE OF TAP Matteo
Page 30 and 31: Matteo Verda 28 Azerbaijani gas wil
Page 32 and 33: Matteo Verda 30 In the end, the via
Page 34 and 35: Aura Sabadus 32 Southern Gas Corrid
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Page 38 and 39: Aura Sabadus 36 The criticism has g
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Page 42 and 43: Aura Sabadus 40 player by selling v
Page 44 and 45: and possibly further to Europe, alt
Page 46 and 47: Aura Sabadus 44 The Southern Gas Co
Page 48 and 49: Davide Tabarelli 46 Environmental e
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Page 52 and 53: View of the old town Ostuni, Puglia
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Page 62 and 63: Mehmet AkIf Okur 60 The steps that
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Frank Umbach 66 Many of the shale g
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Frank Umbach 68 are considerably hi
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Frank Umbach 70 The UK government i
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With Russia’s President Vladimir
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Frank Umbach 74 During the last thr
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Frank Umbach 76 approved by the gov
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Shale gas drilling rig. Frank Umbac
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THE IMPORTANCE OF TAP FOR ITALY SOM
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AntonIo SIleo 82 the end of 2011, g
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AntonIo SIleo 84 Power generation o
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ily limited because of the emergenc
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AntonIo SIleo 88 ductant chemical r
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AntonIo SIleo 90 emerge as a signif
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Radu Dudau 92 Romania’s Energy St
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Radu Dudau 94 countries pay for Rus
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Radu Dudau 96 This industry, howeve
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Radu Dudau 98 de facto monopolies i
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Radu Dudau 100 In October 2013, the
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Radu Dudau 102 In spite of the ling
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caspian
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Why World Oil Prices Should Be High
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Luay Al-Khatteeb 108 for $1 of reve
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emın akhundzada 110 Turkey as an E
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emın akhundzada 112 markets. Given
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emın akhundzada 114 First, it shou
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FatIh Ozbay 116 Discussions about V
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FatIh Ozbay 118 The Black Sea is a
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FatIh Ozbay 120 these two countries
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FatIh Ozbay 122 Montreux is quite s
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MUbarIz Hasanov 124 Some Remarks on
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Turkey will be USD 37 billion highe
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Caspian Report - Issue: 07 - Spring 2014

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