Caspian Report - Issue: 07 - Spring 2014
AHMET YUKLEYEN 12 In short, ANF has made progress but is not ready to control the country. According to Stephen Biddle, a defence policy expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, Afghanistan experts in and out of government have varying opinions. The optithe classified US National intelligence Estimate predicts that the Taliban and other power brokers will become increasingly influential as US troops withdraw. However, the classified US National Intelligence Estimate predicts that the Taliban and other power brokers will become increasingly influential as US troops withdraw. Despite the progress ANF has made, they are not yet ready to provide security for the country on their own. The United Nations reported that civilian casualties rose 16 percent in the first eight months of 2013. 19 The ANF needs more time to operate on their own. Today, there are 38,000 US and 19,000 NATO troops serving in Afghanistan, training, advising, and assisting Afghan forces, both military and police. 20 Since 2009, the number of Afghan security forces has grown from 100,000 poorly equipped and minimally trained troops to a force of nearly 350,000, which is now planning and executing 95 percent of daily patrols. Despite this impressive growth, these troops are still mostly illiterate, and they lack supporting airpower, intelligence, and medical capabilities. Moreover, institutional ability to train and pay personnel or resupply units is weak. 21 According to the UNAMA Mid-Year Report 2013 on Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict, as Afghan security forces have begun to conduct the majority of operations, the number of casualties has risen considerably. 22 During the second quarter of 2013, over 3,500 Afghan service personnel were reportedly wounded or killed in action. On 1 July, the Ministry of the Interior reported that 299 police officers were killed in June, a 22 per cent increase over the same period in 2012. Large-scale unauthorized absences, in the army in particular, remain an issue. The same report documented 3,852 civilian casualties (1,319 deaths and 2,533 injuries). “That marked a 14 per cent rise in civilian deaths and a 28 per cent increase in civilian injuries compared to the first six months of 2012, with civilian casualties up 23 per cent overall.” 19. United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (2013) “UNAMA registers 16 per cent rise in civilian casualties in Afghanistan” Oct. 2. http://unama.unmissions.org/Default. aspxtabid=12254&ctl=Details&mid=15756&ItemID=37327&language=en-US. Retrieved on Feb. 19, 2014. 20. NATO (2014) “International Security Assistance Force: Key Facts and Figures” Jan. 15. http:// www.isaf.nato.int/images/stories/File/2014-01-15%20isaf%20placemat-final.pdf. Retrieved on Feb. 15, 2014. 21. Janine Davidson (2014) “If there are no U.S. or NATO troops in Afghanistan after 2014, what happens” Feb. 3.http://www.cfr.org/afghanistan/if-there-no-us-nato-troops-afghanistanafter-2014-happens/p32320. Retrieved on Feb. 15, 2014. 22. United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (2013) Afghanistan: Mid-Year Report 2013. Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict. P. 1. http://unama.unmissions.org. Retrieved on Feb 10, 2014.
An Afghan protester holds up a banner reading “Signing Bilateral Security Agreement with the USA is a Treason”. 13 mists see Afghan security forces expanding their territorial control until the Taliban is forced into a peace deal. Pessimists fear that the government could eventually lose control of the capital and other big cities because ANF is too weak. Biddle himself predicts “a stalemate for years to come.” 23 The future of Afghanistan lies in rebuilding the legitimacy of the national political system through fair and free elections; creating functional state institutions that build trust in the national government rather than local power brokers; and fighting corruption. rather than local power brokers; and fighting corruption. CASPIAN REPORT, sprIng 2014 PolItIcs The future of Afghanistan lies in rebuilding the legitimacy of the national political system through fair and free elections; creating functional state institutions that build trust in the national government The upcoming presidential elections are an opportunity and challenge for politics. The acceptance of the final election outcome by Afghanistan’s main constituencies would represent a great step toward political legitimacy. If Afghan people can reach political consensus on a candidate, 23. Ernesto Londoño, Karen DeYoung and Greg Miller (2013) Afghanistan gains will be lost quickly after drawdown, U.S. intelligence estimate warns” Dec. 28.http://www.washingtonpost. com/world/national-security/afghanistan-gains-will-be-lost-quickly-after-drawdown-usintelligence-estimate-warns/2013/12/28/ac609f90-6f32-11e3-aecc-85cb037b7236_story. html. Retrived on Feb. 20, 2014.
- Page 1: caspian published by caspıan strat
- Page 4 and 5: CASPIAN Report 2 The urgent need to
- Page 6 and 7: caspian CASPIAN Report 4 06 AHMET Y
- Page 8 and 9: AHMET YUKLEYEN 6 Afghanistan’s Un
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- Page 16 and 17: US President Barack Obama holds a b
- Page 18 and 19: AHMET YUKLEYEN 16 The second big ch
- Page 20 and 21: AHMET YUKLEYEN 18 beards and long t
- Page 22 and 23: Anti-war demonstrators rally near t
- Page 24 and 25: Matteo Verda 22 CONTRIBUTION OF Tra
- Page 26 and 27: Matteo Verda 24 TAP will be a 760 k
- Page 28 and 29: SHAREHOLDER STRUCTURE OF TAP Matteo
- Page 30 and 31: Matteo Verda 28 Azerbaijani gas wil
- Page 32 and 33: Matteo Verda 30 In the end, the via
- Page 34 and 35: Aura Sabadus 32 Southern Gas Corrid
- Page 36 and 37: Aura Sabadus 34 Russian-backed riva
- Page 38 and 39: Aura Sabadus 36 The criticism has g
- Page 40 and 41: Aura Sabadus 38 other large rival t
- Page 42 and 43: Aura Sabadus 40 player by selling v
- Page 44 and 45: and possibly further to Europe, alt
- Page 46 and 47: Aura Sabadus 44 The Southern Gas Co
- Page 48 and 49: Davide Tabarelli 46 Environmental e
- Page 50 and 51: Davide Tabarelli 48 evaluate potent
- Page 52 and 53: View of the old town Ostuni, Puglia
- Page 54 and 55: Davide Tabarelli 52 of some 200 mil
- Page 56 and 57: Iran Nuclear Negotiations and Turke
- Page 58 and 59: Mehmet AkIf Okur 56 posal stated th
- Page 60 and 61: Iranian President Hassan Rouhani an
- Page 62 and 63: Mehmet AkIf Okur 60 The steps that
An Afghan<br />
protester holds<br />
up a banner<br />
reading “Signing<br />
Bilateral Security<br />
Agreement with<br />
the USA is a<br />
Treason”.<br />
13<br />
mists see Afghan security forces<br />
expanding their territorial control<br />
until the Taliban is forced into a<br />
peace deal. Pessimists fear that the<br />
government could eventually lose<br />
control of the capital and other big<br />
cities because ANF is too weak. Biddle<br />
himself predicts “a stalemate for<br />
years to come.” 23<br />
The future of Afghanistan lies in rebuilding the<br />
legitimacy of the national political system<br />
through fair and free elections; creating<br />
functional state institutions that build trust<br />
in the national government rather than local<br />
power brokers; and fighting corruption.<br />
rather than local power brokers; and<br />
fighting corruption.<br />
CASPIAN REPORT, sprIng <strong>2014</strong><br />
PolItIcs<br />
The future of Afghanistan lies in<br />
rebuilding the legitimacy of the national<br />
political system through fair<br />
and free elections; creating functional<br />
state institutions that build<br />
trust in the national government<br />
The upcoming presidential elections<br />
are an opportunity and challenge for<br />
politics. The acceptance of the final<br />
election outcome by Afghanistan’s<br />
main constituencies would represent<br />
a great step toward political legitimacy.<br />
If Afghan people can reach<br />
political consensus on a candidate,<br />
23.<br />
Ernesto Londoño, Karen DeYoung and Greg Miller (2013) Afghanistan gains will be lost quickly<br />
after drawdown, U.S. intelligence estimate warns” Dec. 28.http://www.washingtonpost.<br />
com/world/national-security/afghanistan-gains-will-be-lost-quickly-after-drawdown-usintelligence-estimate-warns/2013/12/28/ac609f90-6f32-11e3-aecc-85cb037b7236_story.<br />
html. Retrived on Feb. 20, <strong>2014</strong>.
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