Caspian Report - Issue: 07 - Spring 2014

AHMET YUKLEYEN
12
In short, ANF has made progress but
is not ready to control the country.
According to Stephen Biddle, a defence
policy expert at the Council
on Foreign Relations, Afghanistan
experts in and out of government
have varying opinions. The optithe
classified US National intelligence Estimate
predicts that the Taliban and other power
brokers will become increasingly influential as
US troops withdraw.
However, the classified US National
Intelligence Estimate predicts that
the Taliban and other power brokers
will become increasingly influential
as US troops withdraw.
Despite the progress ANF has made,
they are not yet ready to provide security
for the country on their own.
The United Nations reported that civilian
casualties rose 16 percent in
the first eight months of 2013. 19 The
ANF needs more time to operate on
their own. Today, there are 38,000
US and 19,000 NATO troops serving
in Afghanistan, training, advising,
and assisting Afghan forces, both
military and police. 20 Since 2009, the
number of Afghan security forces
has grown from 100,000 poorly
equipped and minimally trained
troops to a force of nearly 350,000,
which is now planning and executing
95 percent of daily patrols. Despite
this impressive growth, these
troops are still mostly illiterate, and
they lack supporting airpower, intelligence,
and medical capabilities.
Moreover, institutional ability to
train and pay personnel or resupply
units is weak. 21
According to the UNAMA Mid-Year
Report 2013 on Protection of Civilians
in Armed Conflict, as Afghan security
forces have begun to conduct
the majority of operations, the number
of casualties has risen considerably.
22 During the second quarter of
2013, over 3,500 Afghan service personnel
were reportedly wounded or
killed in action. On 1 July, the Ministry
of the Interior reported that
299 police officers were killed in
June, a 22 per cent increase over the
same period in 2012. Large-scale
unauthorized absences, in the army
in particular, remain an issue. The
same report documented 3,852 civilian
casualties (1,319 deaths and
2,533 injuries). “That marked a 14
per cent rise in civilian deaths and
a 28 per cent increase in civilian
injuries compared to the first six
months of 2012, with civilian casualties
up 23 per cent overall.”
19.
United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (2013) “UNAMA registers 16 per cent
rise in civilian casualties in Afghanistan” Oct. 2. http://unama.unmissions.org/Default.
aspxtabid=12254&ctl=Details&mid=15756&ItemID=37327&language=en-US. Retrieved on
Feb. 19, 2014.
20.
NATO (2014) “International Security Assistance Force: Key Facts and Figures” Jan. 15. http://
www.isaf.nato.int/images/stories/File/2014-01-15%20isaf%20placemat-final.pdf. Retrieved
on Feb. 15, 2014.
21.
Janine Davidson (2014) “If there are no U.S. or NATO troops in Afghanistan after 2014, what
happens” Feb. 3.http://www.cfr.org/afghanistan/if-there-no-us-nato-troops-afghanistanafter-2014-happens/p32320.
Retrieved on Feb. 15, 2014.
22.
United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (2013) Afghanistan: Mid-Year Report 2013.
Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict. P. 1. http://unama.unmissions.org. Retrieved on Feb
10, 2014.