Caspian Report - Issue: 07 - Spring 2014
FatIh Ozbay 122 Montreux is quite stressful in an environment where close combats are seen probable between the parties. If the parties decide to change their position about Montreux, the Black Sea will undoubtedly turn into an area of struggle for global powers. Such a situation could turn upsidedown Moscow’s post-Cold War plans for the Black Sea. In consideration of this case, Russia gives warning to the USA and Turkey as an early precaution by using USS Taylor warship as an excuse. Moreover, the reconnaissance flights of Russia’s military aircrafts parallel to Turkish coasts over the Black Sea since last October are also quite remarkable in this regard. If any tension in the Black Sea turns into a close combat, it will potentially have a negative and direct effect on the relations between Turkey and Russia. During the 2008 War, Turkey managed to get out of the tension between Russia and the West with the least damage. This current crisis is much more serious and significant between the parties. If the crisis which has emerged between Russia and the West as a result of the developments about Ukraine and Crimea, start to pressure the Montreux Convention which is in effect since 1936 without any amendment, Turkey may have to make a tough choice. At this point, Russia takes the biggest part. If Russia’s policy goes beyond Turkey’s red lines, it may force Ankara to take the Black Sea in a different format between two countries but this time at a global level rather than regional. If Russia chooses to follow a policy deepening the crisis in Ukraine, and if this policy leads to war between the West and Russia, which is the worst-case scenario, Turkey will have no alternatives. In this case, some serious difficulties may come up in the bilateral relations between Russia and NATO member Turkey. If a mutual decision is made, acting in collaboration with NATO will become a vital issue If the crisis which has emerged between Russia and the West as a result of the developments about Ukraine and Crimea, start to pressure the Montreux Convention which is in effect since 1936 without any amendment, Turkey may have to make a tough choice. for Turkey. As a result, two countries’ policy to keep foreign powers out of the Black Sea and resolve problems among coastal states will inevitably fail, and even they may get up against each other. The first negative consequence for Turkey will be the irrecoverable damage to the relations that were developed in the post-Cold War era. It will also allow non-coastal states to take initiatives on the grounds of ensuring security, which will almost inevitable lead to a new alignment in the Black Sea. The Black Sea has been an area of competition between Turkey and Russia and the source of bloody wars for hundreds of years. Maybe for the first time in history after the Cold War, two countries have found a chance to establish close relations in the Black Sea. Any step taken by Russia, Turkey or any other state, which may damage these relations, will launch the worst-case scenario for both countries. Thus, attitudes or policies which may open the
Pro-Russian Ukrainian activists holding anti-NATO placards. 123 Montreux Convention to discussion are for the interest of neither Russia nor Turkey. Turkey should continue to pursue its policy for sticking to the Convention and avoid any amendment under all circumstances. And Russia should not pave the way for opening Montreux to discussion with accusatory discourses which arise from the tension arose due to its aggressive policies. CASPIAN REPORT, SPRING 2014
- Page 74 and 75: With Russia’s President Vladimir
- Page 76 and 77: Frank Umbach 74 During the last thr
- Page 78 and 79: Frank Umbach 76 approved by the gov
- Page 80 and 81: Shale gas drilling rig. Frank Umbac
- Page 82 and 83: THE IMPORTANCE OF TAP FOR ITALY SOM
- Page 84 and 85: AntonIo SIleo 82 the end of 2011, g
- Page 86 and 87: AntonIo SIleo 84 Power generation o
- Page 88 and 89: ily limited because of the emergenc
- Page 90 and 91: AntonIo SIleo 88 ductant chemical r
- Page 92 and 93: AntonIo SIleo 90 emerge as a signif
- Page 94 and 95: Radu Dudau 92 Romania’s Energy St
- Page 96 and 97: Radu Dudau 94 countries pay for Rus
- Page 98 and 99: Radu Dudau 96 This industry, howeve
- Page 100 and 101: Radu Dudau 98 de facto monopolies i
- Page 102 and 103: Radu Dudau 100 In October 2013, the
- Page 104 and 105: Radu Dudau 102 In spite of the ling
- Page 106 and 107: caspian
- Page 108 and 109: Why World Oil Prices Should Be High
- Page 110 and 111: Luay Al-Khatteeb 108 for $1 of reve
- Page 112 and 113: emın akhundzada 110 Turkey as an E
- Page 114 and 115: emın akhundzada 112 markets. Given
- Page 116 and 117: emın akhundzada 114 First, it shou
- Page 118 and 119: FatIh Ozbay 116 Discussions about V
- Page 120 and 121: FatIh Ozbay 118 The Black Sea is a
- Page 122 and 123: FatIh Ozbay 120 these two countries
- Page 126 and 127: MUbarIz Hasanov 124 Some Remarks on
- Page 128 and 129: Turkey will be USD 37 billion highe
Pro-Russian<br />
Ukrainian activists<br />
holding anti-NATO<br />
placards.<br />
123<br />
Montreux Convention to discussion<br />
are for the interest of neither Russia<br />
nor Turkey. Turkey should continue<br />
to pursue its policy for sticking<br />
to the Convention and avoid any<br />
amendment under all circumstances.<br />
And Russia should not pave the way<br />
for opening Montreux to discussion<br />
with accusatory discourses which<br />
arise from the tension arose due to<br />
its aggressive policies.<br />
CASPIAN REPORT, SPRING <strong>2014</strong>
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