Caspian Report - Issue: 07 - Spring 2014

AHMET YUKLEYEN
10
want to face the same fate as Najibullah,
the last Soviet-backed president,
who was hanged when the
Taliban first came to power. 9 If the
Americans do not accept his conditions,
he added, “they can leave
anytime and we will continue our
lives”. 10 This was despite the agreement
reached between NATO and
Karzai at the Lisbon summit in 2010,
that NATO would pull its troops out
of Afghanistan at the end of 2014. If
BSA is not signed, all NATO troops
will leave at the end of this year and
all military aid will be cut off, which
would likely bankrupt the Afghan
army and the government. This is
easier said than done. Karzai has
even looked to Afghanistan’s neighbours
– India and Iran – for defense
assistance and support. Just a week
after he expressed his reluctance to
sign the BSA, Karzai signed a security
pact with Iran and soon thereafter
went to New Delhi. However,
the BSA has broad regional support
from friends and rivals alike – China,
India, Pakistan, and Russia. 11 Thus
President Karzai may be over-playing
his hand under these circumstances.
Nevertheless, President
Obama reaffirmed that America
would stand by Afghanistan and
keep on a “small force” of Americans
that would train Afghan forces and
go after “what remains of al-Qaeda”
in his state of the union speech on
January 28, 2014. 12
Even if Karzai does not sign the BSA,
his successor will, after the elections
scheduled for April of this year.
An October poll by the Moby Group
in Kabul, Afghanistan’s largest private
media organization, suggests
the two leading contenders are
former Foreign Minister Abdullah
Abdullah and former Finance Minister
Ashraf Ghani. 13 Some say Karzai’s
preferred candidate is Foreign
Minister Zalmay Rassoul. 14 They
are all pro-Western and continue to
support American and international
presence. In a way, Karzai knows
that the agreement will be signed
anyway, so his country is not going
to lose anything. By not signing it,
he is preserving his own reputation,
and indeed gaining credibility by
standing up for the Afghan people
and avoiding accusations of being a
“puppet” for the Americans.
9.
Fred Kaplan (2014) “Hamid Karzai Isn’t Crazy. He’s a wily survivor whose main concern is
watching his own back” Feb. 13. http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/war_
stories/2014/02/hamid_karzai_isn_t_crazy_the_afghan_president_is_trying_to_survive_a_
post.htmlwpisrc=burger_bar. Retrieved on Feb. 23, 2014.
10.
BBC (2014) “Afghanistan-US deal ‘hinges on Taliban peace talks’” Jan. 25. http://www.bbc.co.uk/
news/world-asia-25893296. Retrieved on Feb. 22, 2014.
11.
Ankit Panda (2013) “U.S. Intelligence Community Pessimistic About the Future of Afghanistan”
Dec. 31. http://thediplomat.com/2013/12/u-s-intelligence-community-pessimistic-aboutthe-future-of-afghanistan/.
Retrieved on Feb. 20, 2014. 5. Marc Sageman (2008) Leaderless
Jihad: Terror Networks in the Twenty-First Century (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania
Press).
12.
The Economist (2014) “Afghanistan’s uncertain future. Playing with fire: Hamid Karzai’s
vilification of America is risking his country’s security” Jan. 30. http://www.economist.com/
news/asia/21595472-hamid-karzais-vilification-america-risking-his-countrys-securityplaying-fire.
Retrieved on Feb. 22, 2014.
13.
John R. Allen and Michael E. O’hanlon (2013) Ignore Karzai’s Arrogant Insults” Nov. 28. http://
www.nytimes.com/2013/11/29/opinion/ignore-karzais-arrogance.html. Retrieved on Feb. 20,
2014.
14.
John R. Allen and Michael E. O’Hanlon (2014) “Solidify the U.S.-Afghanistan
Alliance” Jan. 23. http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2014/01/
solidify-us-afghanistan-alliance-ohanlon-allen