Caspian Report - Issue: 07 - Spring 2014
Create successful ePaper yourself
Turn your PDF publications into a flip-book with our unique Google optimized e-Paper software.
emın akhundzada<br />
112<br />
markets. Given that additional natural<br />
gas will be produced from other<br />
proven fields owned by Azerbaijan,<br />
production is estimated to increase<br />
to approximately 55-60 bcm/a by<br />
2025. Thus Azerbaijan will have<br />
more natural gas to sell in the future.<br />
Israel: There is huge natural gas<br />
reserves in the offshore area of the<br />
Eastern Mediterranean - almost 1<br />
trillion cubic meters of natural gas<br />
reserves in Israel’s Leviathan and<br />
Tamar fields, as well as a likelihood<br />
of additional reserves to be discovered<br />
in the near future. Experts have<br />
pointed out that there are 10 trillion<br />
cubic meters of potential natural gas<br />
reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean.<br />
This provides a further major<br />
advantage for Turkey: the most economical<br />
export route from Israel to<br />
Europe is by pipeline through Turkey.<br />
However, along with the economic<br />
feasibility of any project, the prevailing<br />
political conditions must also be<br />
evaluated.<br />
Political tensions between Turkey<br />
and Israel have remained an issue<br />
since the 2010 Mavi Marmara crisis.<br />
Though these tensions have dissipated<br />
following apologies and Israel’s<br />
provision of compensation to the<br />
Mavi Marmara victims, there are still<br />
significant problems to be addressed.<br />
One of Turkey’s three conditions is<br />
that Israel must remove the Gaza<br />
blockade; this has not been resolved<br />
and remains a source of disagreement.<br />
It is expected that the parties<br />
will come together in the near future<br />
and solve this problem through diplomatic<br />
negotiation. Thus, it is likely<br />
that Israel can supply 10 bcm/a natural<br />
gas to Turkey in the short term.<br />
Iraq: According to the International<br />
Energy Agency (IEA), Iraq has the<br />
13 th largest natural gas reserves in<br />
the world, with 3,4 trillion cubic<br />
meters of proven reserves. However,<br />
according to energy experts,<br />
Iraq’s potential natural gas reserves<br />
are even higher, and so its reserves<br />
could easily double once it begins<br />
the exploitation process. Iraq has<br />
Experts have pointed out that there are<br />
10 trillion cubic meters of potential<br />
natural gas reserves in the Eastern<br />
Mediterranean.<br />
the potential to export around 20<br />
bcm/a to Turkey by 2020. If political<br />
stability achieved, Iraq’s natural gas<br />
production is expected to reach to 90<br />
bcm/a. But internal political instability<br />
prevents Iraq from achieving its<br />
potential vis-à-vis its natural gas<br />
production. The dispute between<br />
Baghdad and Arbil concerning revenue<br />
sharing is fairly entrenched. In<br />
this context, Turkey should undertake<br />
a constructive mediation role<br />
to help resolve the internal political<br />
issues between Baghdad and Arbil<br />
to overcome this problem as soon as<br />
possible. Otherwise, given that the<br />
internal instability in Iraq benefits<br />
no one, production will decline and<br />
the exploitation of new fields will be<br />
delayed. If political conditions improve,<br />
20bcm/a natural gas can be<br />
exported from Iraq to Turkey.<br />
Turkmenistan: Turkmenistan has<br />
the world’s fourth largest natural<br />
gas reserves, with approximately<br />
20 trillion cubic meters. Currently it<br />
exports natural gas to Russia, China,<br />
Kazakhstan and Iran. With the con-
Change language