Caspian Report - Issue: 07 - Spring 2014

AHMET YUKLEYEN
8
In Afghanistan’s presidential elections this
year, Karzai was barred by the constitution from
running again as a candidate.
curity Agreement (BSA) 2 , America
would keep on a “small force” of
Americans to train Afghan forces and
pursue what remains of al-Qaeda. 3
In Afghanistan’s presidential elections
this year, Karzai was barred by
the constitution from running again
as a candidate. Tough bargaining between
the Afghan government and
the United States over BSA continues.
What will this mean for the future of
Afghanistan
Justifying starting a war is easier than
making the case for ending one. The
uncertainties around the US withdrawal
from Afghanistan have global
as well as national implications. If
Taliban gets back in power and terrorist
networks return to their safe
haven, Jihadist networks could pose
an increased threat to global peace.
These networks gain strongholds in
countries with “failed states” such as
Iraq, Syria, and possibly Afghanistan
again.
This article examines the current
political negotiations between President
Obama and Karzai (and his
successor as President) over the US
withdrawal, and what this means
for the future of Afghanistan and beyond.
It lays out the challenges for
the country, and also the world. It argues
that the biggest challenge is the
potential reemergence of the Taliban,
and through it, an increased threat of
global Jihad. The persistence of Al-
Qaeda affiliated terror networks despite
the killing of Bin Laden and destruction
of Al-Qaeda’s infrastructure
has demonstrated that Al-Qaeda is a
not a top down organization of Jihadists
as some US intelligence experts
had mistakenly assumed. 4 The Jihadist
movement is global and cannot be
limited to a single organization. This
alternative approach argues that Jihadists
are self-recruits, educated,
and well-off. 5 According to The National
Intelligence Estimate, which
includes input from the US’s sixteen
intelligence agencies, predicts that
the Taliban and other power brokers
will become increasingly influential
as the US troops leave Afghanistan. 6
2.
Council on Foreign Relations (2013) “United States and Afghanistan’s Security and Defense
Cooperation Agreement” Published on November 21. http://www.cfr.org/afghanistan/unitedstates-afghanistans-security-defense-cooperation-agreement-november-2013/p31921.
Retrieved on February 23, 2014.
3.
The Economist (2014) “Afghanistan’s uncertain future. Playing with fire: Hamid Karzai’s
vilification of America is risking his country’s security” January 30. http://www.economist.com/
news/asia/21595472-hamid-karzais-vilification-america-risking-his-countrys-securityplaying-fire.
Retrieved on February 22, 2014.
4.
Elaine Sciolino and Eric Schmitt (2008) “A Not Very Private Feud Over Terrorism” June 8.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/08/weekinreview/08sciolino.htmlpagewanted=all&_r=0.
Retrieved on Jan. 19, 2014.
5.
Marc Sageman (2008) Leaderless Jihad: Terror Networks in the Twenty-First Century
(Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press).
6.
Ernesto Londoño, Karen DeYoung and Greg Miller (2013) “Afghanistan gains will be lost quickly
after drawdown, U.S. intelligence estimate warns” Washington Post. December 28
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/afghanistan-gains-will-be-lost-
quickly-after-drawdown-us-intelligence-estimate-warns/2013/12/28/ac609f90-6f32-11e3-
aecc-85cb037b7236_story.html. Retrieved on February 20, 2014.