BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA, S.A. AND ... - BBVA
BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA, S.A. AND ... - BBVA
BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA, S.A. AND ... - BBVA
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Financial Instruments<br />
LEVEL 3<br />
Valuation techniques<br />
Main assumptions<br />
Main<br />
unobservable<br />
inputs<br />
JUNE 2010<br />
Fair Value (Millions of Euros)<br />
• Debt securities<br />
• Present-value method; and<br />
• “Time default” model for<br />
financial instruments in the<br />
collateralized debt obligations<br />
(CDOs) family<br />
Calculation of the present value of financial instruments as the current value<br />
of future cash flows (discounted at market interest rates), taking into<br />
account:<br />
• Estimate of prepayment rates:<br />
• Issuer credit risk; and<br />
• Current market interest rates.<br />
In the case of valuation of asset-backed securities (ABSs), future<br />
prepayments are calculated on the conditional prepayment rates that the<br />
issuers themselves provide.<br />
The “time-to-default” model is used to measure default probability. One of the<br />
main variables used is the correlation of defaults extrapolated from several<br />
index tranches (ITRAXX and CDX) with the underlying portfolio of our CDOs.<br />
• Prepayment rates.<br />
• Default correlation.<br />
• Credit spread (1)<br />
Trading portfolio<br />
Debt securities<br />
502<br />
Equity instruments 166<br />
Available-for-sale financial assets<br />
Debt securities 320<br />
• Equity instruments<br />
• Derivatives<br />
• Present-value method<br />
Trading derivatives for interest rate futures<br />
and forwards:<br />
• Present-value method.<br />
• “Libor Market” model.<br />
For variable income and foreign exchange<br />
options:<br />
• Monte Carlo simulations<br />
• Numerical integration<br />
• Heston<br />
• Credit baskets<br />
Net asset value (NAV) for hedge funds and for equity instruments listed in<br />
thin and less active markets<br />
The “Libor Market” model models the complete term structure of the interest<br />
rate curve, assuming a CEV (constant elasticity of variance) lognormal<br />
process. The CEV lognormal process is used to measure the presence of a<br />
volatility shift.<br />
The options are valued through generally accepted valuation models, to<br />
which the observed implied volatility is added.<br />
These models assume a constant diffusion of default intensity.<br />
• Credit spread (1)<br />
• NAV supplied by the<br />
fund manager.<br />
• Correlation decay (2).<br />
• Vol-of-vol. (3)<br />
• Reversion factor. (4)<br />
• Volatility Spot<br />
Correlation (5)<br />
• Defaults correlation.<br />
• Historical CDS volatility<br />
Equity instruments 209<br />
ASSETS<br />
Trading derivatives 245<br />
LIABILITIES<br />
Trading derivatives 98<br />
(1) Credit spread: The spread between the interest rate of a risk-free asset (e.g. Treasury securities) and the interest rate of any other security that is identical in every respect except for quality rating. Spreads are considered as Level 3 inputs when referring to<br />
illiquid issues. Based on spreads of similar entities.<br />
(2) Correlation decay: The constant rate of decay that allows us to calculate how the correlation evolves between the different pairs of forward rates.<br />
(3) Vol-of-Vol: Volatility of implicit volatility. This is a statistical measure of the changes of the spot volatility.<br />
(4) Reversion Factor: The speed with which volatility reverts to its natural value.<br />
(5) Volatility- Spot Correlation: a statistical measure of the linear relationship (correlation) between the spot price of a security and its volatility.<br />
67