Folie

Germany is the economic engine of the Eurozone
Status quo
German economy: the largest and
most promising in EMU
Stable economic situation
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-
-
Low level of private sector debt
Low inflation risk
No bubbles, low spreads
Favourable political environment
Competitive banking landscape
DAX
(average p.a.)
5,059
6,200
7,200
Eric Strutz ‌ CFO ‌‌‌
Frankfurt ‌‌‌
November 8th, 2010
7,600
2009 2010 F 2011 F 2012 F
Source: Commerzbank Economic Research
previous estimate
2010
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Germany recovering strongly from
financial crisis after Lehman default
Germany currently benefits from
strong demand for investment
goods and its strong positioning in
Asian markets
“Labour market miracle”: level of
unemployment already below precrisis
level
Elevated level of (small cap)
corporate and private defaults
Euribor
in % (average p.a.)
1.23
0.83
previous estimate
1.25
2.00
2009 2010 F 2011 F 2012 F
2011 – 2012 expectation
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Recovery will continue, no double dip
expected in the US or in EMU
Germany still ‘outperformer’ within
EMU
Less dynamic world economy and
ongoing consolidation efforts in EMU
will slow down growth
Stabilization of inflation at a low level
ECB not expected to start to hike rates
in 2011
GDP *
(Change vs previous year in %)
-4.7
-4.1
3.3
1.6
2.0
1.5
2.0
2.0
Germany Eurozone
2009 2010 F 2011 F 2012 F
* no changes in estimates since August 2010
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