Process and Equipment Reliability - Barringer and Associates, Inc.
Process and Equipment Reliability - Barringer and Associates, Inc. Process and Equipment Reliability - Barringer and Associates, Inc.
Bearing Replacement Curve No real $/hr advantage for using a PM replacement strategy © Barringer & Associates, Inc. 2004 19 Models Organize Thinking • Gather facts, build models, get the math right. • Weibull models are “smart” models with heavy data demands by individual failure modes. • Crow-AMSAA models are not so smart, have lesser data demands, and allow use of mixed failure modes. • C-A plots allow “fearless forecasts” of future failures. © Barringer & Associates, Inc. 2004 20 10
Reliability Growth Models This graph predicted next safety incident to occur On May 16, 2004. Actual occurred May 11, 2004. “If you can predict it, you can control it.” Localize bad trend! When: β < 1 failures come slowly β >1 failures come faster β = 1 no improvement/deterioration N(t) = λt β © Barringer & Associates, Inc. 2004 21 Reliability Growth Models 1590 hrs 1150 hrs Localize bad trend! © Barringer & Associates, Inc. 2004 22 11
- Page 1 and 2: Process and Equipment Reliability P
- Page 3 and 4: Management Double Speak • Managem
- Page 5 and 6: Reliability vs Maintenance Engineer
- Page 7 and 8: Reliability Tools — Start Your Nu
- Page 9: L-10 life Weibull Plot ~5x η Forec
- Page 13 and 14: Series Reliability Models λ T = Σ
- Page 15 and 16: Top Down Cost Of Unreliabilty Model
- Page 17 and 18: Life Cycle Costs Are Fixed During D
- Page 19: Summary • Set a policy for a fail
Bearing Replacement Curve<br />
No real $/hr<br />
advantage<br />
for using a PM<br />
replacement<br />
strategy<br />
© <strong>Barringer</strong> & <strong>Associates</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. 2004 19<br />
Models Organize Thinking<br />
• Gather facts, build models, get the math right.<br />
• Weibull models are “smart” models with heavy<br />
data dem<strong>and</strong>s by individual failure modes.<br />
• Crow-AMSAA models are not so smart, have<br />
lesser data dem<strong>and</strong>s, <strong>and</strong> allow use of mixed<br />
failure modes.<br />
• C-A plots allow “fearless forecasts” of future<br />
failures.<br />
© <strong>Barringer</strong> & <strong>Associates</strong>, <strong>Inc</strong>. 2004 20<br />
10
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