Fernando Sanchez-Albavera - IASS Potsdam

IASS INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP
RENEWABLE ENERGY PERSPECTIVES
IN LATIN AMERICA IN THE
INTERNATIONAL CONTEXT
FERNANDO SANCHEZ ALBAVERA
DIRECTOR
CENTER FOR PUBLIC AFFAIRS AND BUSINESS
POTSDAM, GERMANY, 1-2 DE OCTUBRE, 2012

RENEWABLE ENERGY SHARE OF
GLOBAL FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION
SOURCE: Renewable 2012, Global Status Report, Renewable Energy Policy
Network for the 21st Century.

LATIN AMERICA
TOTAL SUPPLY OF ENERGY
SOURCE: ECLAC, Coviello Manlio, Energías renovables en América Latina
y el Caribe, 2011. Data is for 2008.

LATIN AMERICA
RENEWABILITY INDEX OF ENERGY SOURCES
(renewable energy supply/ total energy supply)
SOURCE: ECLAC, Coviello Manlio, Energías renovables en América Latina y
el Caribe, 2011.

RENEWALE SHARE
TOTAL SUPPLY OF PRIMARY ENERGY
SOURCE: International Energy Agency, Renewable Information
2011.

SOURCE: ECLAC, based OLADE data

SELECTED INDICATORS
SOURCE: Renewable 2012, Global Status Report, Renewable Energy Policy Network for
the 21st Century,.

GLOBAL NEW INVESTMENT IN RENEWABLE ENERGY
SOURCE: Renewable 2012, Global Status Report., Renewable Energy Policy Network
for the 21st Century,.

AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATES OF RENEWABLE
ENERGY CAPACITY AND BIOFUELS PRODUCTION
SOURCE: Renewable 2012, Global Status Report., Renewable
Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century.

SUSTAINABILITY CHALLENGES
WORLD POPULATION GROWTH

WORLD GDP AND ENERGY DEMAND
SOURCE: Exxon-Mobil 2012, The outlook for energy: A view to 2040.

GDP PER CAPITA AND ENERGY DEMAND

PROSPECTIVE OF HOSEHOLD AND THE
RESIDENTIAL ENERGY DEMAND
SOURCE: Exxon-Mobil 2012, The outlook for energy: A view to 2040.

PROSPECTIVE OF GLOBAL
TRANSPORTATION DEMAND TO 2040
SOURCE: Exxon-Mobil 2012, The outlook for energy: A view to 2040.

PROSPECTIVE WORLD ENERGY DEMAND
SOURCE: Exxon-Mobil 2012, The outlook for energy: A view to 2040.

GROWTH RATE OF CO2 EMISSIONS WILL
INCREASE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

CO2 EMISIONS PER CAPITA
SOURCE: ECLAC, Alicia Barcena, Energy and climate change in Latin
America, 2011.

IEA 2025: CONCENTRATION OF ENERGY
CONSUMPTION AND WORLD POPULATION
POPULATION
DEVELOPED
COUNTRIES
DEVELOPING
COUNTRIES
% OF THE
WORLD
POPULATION
14 % 86 %
% OF THE
WORLD ENERGY
CONSUMPTION
43 % 47 %

PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION OF OIL
(in tonnes)
SOURCE: British Petroleum Annual Report 2012

GLOBAL FLOWS OF TRADING OIL
(Million tons)
SOURCE: British Petroleum Annual Report 2012

OIL WORLD PRODUCTION
SOURCE: World Energy Outlook, 2010

CUMULATIVE INVESTMENT IN OIL AND NATURAL GAS
(2005-2030)
miles de millones de dólares de 2005
800
600
400
200
0
Petróleo Gas Natural
Rusia Oriente Medio África América Latina
SOURCE: Repsol YPF, based in International Energy Agency data

PROPOSAL
WORLD ENERGY AGENDA
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
ENERGY SECURITY
DIVERSIFICATION OF
SUSTAINABLE AND
RENEWABLE ENERGY
SUPPLY
TECHNOLOGICAL
DEVELOPMENT AND
COMPETITIVENESS OF
SOURCES
ENERGY EFFICIENCY
ENERGY INTEGRATION
ENERGY ACCESS, SOCIAL
EQUITY AND POVERTY
REDUCTION
FINANCING AND
TRANSITION TO A NEW
ENERGY ORDER

CHALLENGES FOR LATIN
AMERICAN COUNTRIES
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n
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Energy security is crucial to generate more welfare but no true
security without sustainability.
Energy integration and international cooperation should be
basics for a new international energy order
Energy efficiency is the best guarantee for the sustainability of
productive development
Fossil fuels will continue to be decisive but it will be necessary to
mitigate impacts on the natural heritage and environment.
There will be increasing pressure of population to energy access.
The renewables energies should be incorporated into programs
to fight poverty to generate new opportunities to improve
household incomes.

CONCEPTUAL APPROACH
NATURAL HERITAGE
MORE RENEWABILITY
MORE ENERGY EFFICIENCY
MORE PRODUCTIVE DEVELOPMENT
MORE SOCIAL EQUALITY
LOW ENERGY
INTENSITY
TO DO MORE
WITH LESS
ENERGY
120
100
80
60
40
20
DEMANDA ENERGETICA PROYECTADA (DOE)
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
0
100
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
AÑOS
A.Latina
total developing
SOURCE: ECLAC

POLICY GUIDELINES
n Using both market, regulatory and promotional
mechanisms.
n Use the price mechanism to internalize the benefits
(socio-economic-environmental) of renewable energy.
n Designing new financing schemes.
n Get more and perfect the global emissions market
(CDM)
n Energy diplomacy: international cooperation and
strategic alliances.

PROGRESS ON REGULATION TO
PROMOTE RENEWABLE ENERGY
n Promotion of Renewable Energies in federal states,
regions, provinces, depending on the country.
n National laws to promote a renewable source (wind)
through special funds.
n Subsidies to the generation of energy with renewable
sources
n Promotional pricing by law
n Financing the pre-investment stage renewable energy
projects.
n Compulsory purchase (5%) of shares with renewable
generation.

ENERGY RENEWABLE PROJECTS IN
LATIN AMERICAN IN THE IDB
SOURCE: Interamerican Development Bank (IDB)

LATIN AMERICA WIND POWER CAPACITY
SOURCE: World Wind Energy Report, 2010

ETHANOL AND BIODIESEL PRODUCTION
SOURCE: Renewable 2011, Global Status Report., Renewable Energy Policy
Network for the 21st Century, 2011.

WORLD PROGRAMS OF ETHANOL
BRASILIAN INSTITUTE OF PETROLEUM

WORLD GEOTHERMAL CAPACITY
SOURCE: SIEMENS, 5th Gas and Oil Bolivia International Congress, august 2012

POLICY AREAS TO PROMOTE
RENEWABLE ENERGY
n Strengthening institutions: legislation and
public agencies
n Design mechanisms for information and
promotion
n Management of both positive and negative
externalities.
n Development credits and financial incentives
n Electrification through renewable policies to
combat poverty in rural areas

KEY MESSAGES
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PROBLEM: Growing demand for energy, strong impact on the
global environment and issues of sustainability and security of
supply. These problems need to be global international
cooperation.
FOCUS: requires policies that link the supply and demand of
energy. The central issue is energy efficiency. It's about doing
more with less energy.
ACTION: Both market as possible and as much regulation as
needed. An optimal balance between public and private should
mean technological changes on both the supply and demand
for moving towards a new energy civilization, but better with
more energizing and increased access as a result of reducing
the differences welfare states among nations.

THANK YOU
FERNANDO SANCHEZ ALBAVERA
DIRECTOR
CENTER FOR PUBLIC AFFAIRS AND BUSINESS
POTSDAM, GERMANY, 1-2 DE OCTUBRE, 2012