REGIONAL COOPERATION AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION
REGIONAL COOPERATION AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION REGIONAL COOPERATION AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION
Goran Buturac, Ph.D., Research Fellow, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, Croatia REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS AND REGIONAL COOPERATION COMPARISON OF TRADE PATTERNS OF SELECTED SOUTH- EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES Abstract This paper examines the trade patterns of selected south-eastern European countries. The empirical research comprises the analyses of: dispersion and concentration, comparative advantages, intra-industry trade, trade specialization, export competitiveness and export similarities. The methodology of the paper is based on applying the following indicators of international trade: TEI (Trade Entropy Index), RCA (Revealed Comparative Advantages), Grubel-Loyd Index (GL), RUV (Relative Unit Value), Index of Export Competitiveness and Index of Export Similarities (ES). The empirical results for the observed countries reveal the conclusion about existing comparative advantages in raw materials and labor intensive sectors (base metal, textiles, footwear, wood). Those products with a higher level of comparative advantage do not have a higher ratio between the unit value of exports and imports which points to unfavourable trade patterns. All the observed countries show the most favorable position on the EU 25 markets in agricultural and textile sectors. Analyzed countries do not have competitive export structures but complementary. Key words: trade patterns, comparative advantages, trade specialization, export competitiveness, south-eastern European countries INTODUCTION The purpose of this paper is to analyze changes in the trade patterns of selected southeastern European countries, as well as to explain the noted similarities and differences in the dynamics and direction of movements in comparative advantages and in trade specialization. The analysis comprises the following countries: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia. During the last 15 years of transition these countries have witnessed an abundance of very interesting and significant economic events. Croatia and Macedonia are candidate countries for joining the EU while Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Montenegro are prospective candidate countries. All these countries face the challenge of more active inclusion in the European integration process, and one of the key factors in this path is the improvement in trade patterns and export competitiveness. The changes of export structure towards higher value added products are a precondition of growth in export competitiveness. The latest trends on the international markets are characterized by a significant fall in demand and a strengthening of competitive pressure. In this context the ability of the adjustment to new market circumstances is especially important for the achievement of continual growth 75
PART I: in production and in exports. Present theoretical knowledge supports open policies of international trade. The liberalization and openness of the markets and global reduction of demand create new challenges for strengthening export competitiveness (Buturac and Grzinic, 2009). This paper is focused on the analysis of: dispersion and concentration, comparative advantages, trade specialization, intra-industry trade, export competitiveness and export similarities. The methodology of the research is based on applying the following indicators of international trade: TEI (Trade Entropy Index), RCA (Revealed Comparative Advantages), RUV (Relative Unit Value), Index of Export Competitiveness and Index of Export Similarities (ES). The paper is divided into three parts. After the introduction, the second part is related to a brief review of methodology. The results of empirical research of the openness, dispersion and concentration, comparative advantages, export competitiveness and export similarities are shown in the third part. Brief conclusions are then drawn. 1. Methodology The empirical analysis of changes in the trade patterns of selected south-eastern European countries was calculated using the following indicators: ‣ trade entropy index (TEI) for the analysis of the dispersion and concentration; ‣ revealed comparative advantages (RCA) for the analysis of comparative advantages; ‣ Grubel-Loyd Index (GL) for the analysis of intra-industry trade; ‣ relative unit value indicator (RUV) for the analysis of horizontal and vertical specialization; ‣ the indicator of export competitiveness; ‣ the indicator of export similarities (ES). The dispersion and concentration of export and import structure are analyzed applying empirical calculations TEI indicator („Trade Entropy Index“) which is calculated according to the following expression: where b i is the share j of the export of individual product i in total export of manufacturing j. The same is valid for imports. The higher value of the indicator reveals a higher level of export dispersion, i.e. a lower level of export concentration. Conversely, the lower value of entropy index means lower dispersion, i.e. higher concentration. A high concentration or low dispersion implies a high share of product or several products in total export structure. Otherwise, low concentration or high dispersion reveals the fact that none of the products has significantly higher share in export structure relative to other products. The RCA indicator is used for the analyses of comparative advantages. The methodology 76
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PART I:<br />
in production and in exports. Present theoretical knowledge supports open policies of<br />
international trade. The liberalization and openness of the markets and global reduction<br />
of demand create new challenges for strengthening export competitiveness (Buturac and<br />
Grzinic, 2009). This paper is focused on the analysis of: dispersion and concentration,<br />
comparative advantages, trade specialization, intra-industry trade, export competitiveness<br />
and export similarities. The methodology of the research is based on applying the following<br />
indicators of international trade: TEI (Trade Entropy Index), RCA (Revealed Comparative<br />
Advantages), RUV (Relative Unit Value), Index of Export Competitiveness and Index of<br />
Export Similarities (ES).<br />
The paper is divided into three parts. After the introduction, the second part is related to a<br />
brief review of methodology. The results of empirical research of the openness, dispersion<br />
and concentration, comparative advantages, export competitiveness and export similarities<br />
are shown in the third part. Brief conclusions are then drawn.<br />
1. Methodology<br />
The empirical analysis of changes in the trade patterns of selected south-eastern European<br />
countries was calculated using the following indicators:<br />
‣ trade entropy index (TEI) for the analysis of the dispersion and<br />
concentration;<br />
‣ revealed comparative advantages (RCA) for the analysis of comparative<br />
advantages;<br />
‣ Grubel-Loyd Index (GL) for the analysis of intra-industry trade;<br />
‣ relative unit value indicator (RUV) for the analysis of horizontal and vertical<br />
specialization;<br />
‣ the indicator of export competitiveness;<br />
‣ the indicator of export similarities (ES).<br />
The dispersion and concentration of export and import structure are analyzed applying<br />
empirical calculations TEI indicator („Trade Entropy Index“) which is calculated according<br />
to the following expression:<br />
where b<br />
i<br />
is the share<br />
j<br />
of the export of individual product i in total export of manufacturing<br />
j. The same is valid for imports. The higher value of the indicator reveals a higher level of<br />
export dispersion, i.e. a lower level of export concentration. Conversely, the lower value of<br />
entropy index means lower dispersion, i.e. higher concentration. A high concentration or<br />
low dispersion implies a high share of product or several products in total export structure.<br />
Otherwise, low concentration or high dispersion reveals the fact that none of the products<br />
has significantly higher share in export structure relative to other products.<br />
The RCA indicator is used for the analyses of comparative advantages. The methodology<br />
76