REGIONAL COOPERATION AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION

REGIONAL COOPERATION AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION REGIONAL COOPERATION AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION

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the war conditions in WBC. In order to find a proper answer for those differences we have tried to correlate the pace of privatisation with the rates of growth. Namely, some countries followed the principle of “big bang” approach in privatising the economy in short period of time, while the others were more caution. For example, in the year 2002 in Hungary about 80% of GDP was produced by private sector, compared with 65% in Slovenia, 45% in Bosnia and Herzegovina and only 40% in Serbia. In 2007, Slovenia and Croatia reached the level of 70%, Serbia 55%, Bosnia 60% and Macedonia 65% (EBRD, Report 2008). The speed of privatization was not correlated with the rate of growth and quality of privatisation was responsible for differences. This is, however difficult to measure. Rising demand has contributed to a fast increase in trade deficit: it is reported in SEE’s every year. The FYR of Macedonia, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Serbia and Kosovo were particularly dependent on imports (Table 6). Table 6: Trade balance of South Eastern European countries A. Western Balkan Export Trade Balance Exports (mil US $) per capita (US $) (million of US $) 2004 2007 2007 2004 2007 17.221 45591 1959 -22.625 -33.830 Albania 601 1.079 342 -1.583 -2.899 Bosnia & 2.087 9947 2834 -4.570 -5.704 Herzegovina Croatia 8.215 12623 2842 -518 -1.836 Macedonia 1.675 3350 1658 -8.346 -12.933 Serbia 4.082 17689 1857 -1.139 -1.627 Montenegro 561 903 1445 -6.469 -8.831 B. Members of EU 234227 179.227 4460 -15.113 -36.174 Bulgaria 18524 18.524 1913 -3.688 -10.141 Hungary 93434 93.434 9282 -3.555 435 Romania 40176 40.176 1863 -6.612 -24.138 Slovenia 27093 27.093 13479 -1.258 -2.330 TOTAL 279818 208.283 3693 -37.738 -70.004 Source: Eurostat, 2009 REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS AND REGIONAL COOPERATION In 2007, the average of imports and exports relative to GDP registered a value of 40% for the EU-27. According to the available Eurostat data, lower levels were reported in Albania (35 % in 2005) and Kosovo (27% in 2006). On the other hand, significantly higher values were recorded in 2006 for the FYR of Macedonia (57%) and Montenegro (64%) while Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina also showed values above the average 50 per cent (Eurostat, 2009). Membership of Western Balkan states in the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA) and the associated bilateral free trade agreements used to be a sign of liberalizing trade relations that resulted in increased trade and investment linkages among the region’s economies. However, national statistics of those countries shows that 23

PART I: only a limited portion of total import comes from Western Balkan countries (in FYR of Macedonia 11, 7 per cent, in Croatia 5 per cent and Bosnia and Herzegovina 23 per cent). It is visible that the effect of CEFTA agreement in changing existing structure so far has been negligible. Significant and rising imbalances in the trade and current accounts and a rising external debt constitute potential risks to macroeconomic stability. In SEE current account deficits continued to widen. Countries which experienced the largest deficit (Montenegro, Bulgaria, Romania and Bosnia) are not the countries with the fastest growth (see table 7). 24 Table 7: Current account deficit of South Eastern European countries Region/Country Current Account (mil US $) Current account as percentage of deficit GDP Country 2003 2005 2007 2003 2005 2007 A. WBCs 6022 7743 14190 - - - Albania 399 726 1151 -6.7 -3.9 -3.6 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1629 1913 1939 -19.5 -17.5 -12.8 Croatia 2162 2555 4437 -7.2 -6.3 -8.6 FYR Macedonia 184 158 248 -4.0 -2.7 -3.2 Serbia 1532 2194 5285 -6.8 -8.6 -32.5 Montenegro 116 197 1130 -7.5 -8.4 -12.9 B. Members of EU 11390 22497 43312 - - - Bulgaria 1022 3405 8592 -5.1 -12.5 -21.7 Hungary 6698 8418 8895 -7.9 -7.6 -6.4 Romania 3455 10054 23843 -5.8 -10.2 -14.4 Slovenia 215 620 1982 -0.8 -1.7 -4.2 TOTAL 17412 30240 57502 - - - Source: EBRD, 2008 The current account deficit shows that all analysed countries were living above their capacity of economy and possibilities and the majority of them show the rising level of this deficit. This conclusion surfaced when we were presenting the total amount of deficit (expressed in US $) for WBC and for SEE countries which had already joined the EU: they were doubling its current account deficit every two years. Current account deficits as a percentage of GDP in WBCs in 2007 ranged from 3, 6% in Albania to 32,5% in Montenegro, with Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo recording values over 12%. In most countries, this percentage has increased since 2003, but reductions were seen in Albania (almost 3 percentage points) and Bosnia and Herzegovina. This deficit is financed by increasing net capital inflows. The SEE region as a whole has obtained a sizable amount of foreign credits and FDI (table 8). Relatively large flows of FDI entered into SEE countries, however on very uneven level. Even though FDI flows did not contribute largely to growth of SEE economies at the beginning of 1990s. Privatization FDI did not show any signs of contribution to the GDP growth; however, more benefit is expected with the end of privatization through Greenfield investment with direct and immediate effects on employment and output growth (Jovančević, R. and Šimurina, J. 2008).

the war conditions in WBC. In order to find a proper answer for those differences we have<br />

tried to correlate the pace of privatisation with the rates of growth. Namely, some countries<br />

followed the principle of “big bang” approach in privatising the economy in short period<br />

of time, while the others were more caution. For example, in the year 2002 in Hungary<br />

about 80% of GDP was produced by private sector, compared with 65% in Slovenia, 45%<br />

in Bosnia and Herzegovina and only 40% in Serbia. In 2007, Slovenia and Croatia reached<br />

the level of 70%, Serbia 55%, Bosnia 60% and Macedonia 65% (EBRD, Report 2008). The<br />

speed of privatization was not correlated with the rate of growth and quality of privatisation<br />

was responsible for differences. This is, however difficult to measure.<br />

Rising demand has contributed to a fast increase in trade deficit: it is reported in SEE’s<br />

every year. The FYR of Macedonia, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Serbia<br />

and Kosovo were particularly dependent on imports (Table 6).<br />

Table 6: Trade balance of South Eastern European countries<br />

A. Western<br />

Balkan<br />

Export Trade Balance<br />

Exports (mil US $)<br />

per capita (US $) (million of US $)<br />

2004 2007 2007 2004 2007<br />

17.221 45591 1959 -22.625 -33.830<br />

Albania<br />

601 1.079 342 -1.583 -2.899<br />

Bosnia &<br />

2.087 9947 2834 -4.570 -5.704<br />

Herzegovina<br />

Croatia<br />

8.215 12623 2842 -518 -1.836<br />

Macedonia<br />

1.675 3350 1658 -8.346 -12.933<br />

Serbia<br />

4.082 17689 1857 -1.139 -1.627<br />

Montenegro<br />

561 903 1445 -6.469 -8.831<br />

B. Members<br />

of EU<br />

234227 179.227 4460 -15.113 -36.174<br />

Bulgaria<br />

18524 18.524 1913 -3.688 -10.141<br />

Hungary<br />

93434 93.434 9282 -3.555 435<br />

Romania<br />

40176 40.176 1863 -6.612 -24.138<br />

Slovenia<br />

27093 27.093 13479 -1.258 -2.330<br />

TOTAL 279818 208.283 3693 -37.738 -70.004<br />

Source: Eurostat, 2009<br />

<strong>REGIONAL</strong> TRADE AGREEMENTS <strong>AND</strong> <strong>REGIONAL</strong> <strong>COOPERATION</strong><br />

In 2007, the average of imports and exports relative to GDP registered a value of 40%<br />

for the EU-27. According to the available Eurostat data, lower levels were reported in<br />

Albania (35 % in 2005) and Kosovo (27% in 2006). On the other hand, significantly higher<br />

values were recorded in 2006 for the FYR of Macedonia (57%) and Montenegro (64%)<br />

while Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina also showed values above the average 50 per<br />

cent (Eurostat, 2009). Membership of Western Balkan states in the Central European Free<br />

Trade Agreement (CEFTA) and the associated bilateral free trade agreements used to be a<br />

sign of liberalizing trade relations that resulted in increased trade and investment linkages<br />

among the region’s economies. However, national statistics of those countries shows that<br />

23

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