REGIONAL COOPERATION AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION
REGIONAL COOPERATION AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION REGIONAL COOPERATION AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION
FDI FLOWS IN SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE Dragana Milenkovic, Ph.D. University of Pristina, Faculty of Economics in Kosovska Mitrovica Ivan Milenkovic, Ph.D. University of Pristina, Faculty of Economics in Kosovska Mitrovica and University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Economics in Subotica, Serbia FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS FLOWS IN CEFTA COUNTRIES AS A SOURCE OF BALANCE OF PAYMENT DEFICIT FINANCING IN TERMS OF WORLD FINANCIAL CRISIS INTRODUCTION Free trade areas are unions of two or more custom areas without custom duties imposed to each other, nor other foreign trade restrictions. Practice of economic integration proved free trade areas either to disintegrate, or to be one of intermediate phases toward further integration on the way to higher forms of integration such as custom unions and economic unions. In theory, Balassa (1962, p. 2) gave most common classification, that recognize: - free trade areas (liberalization of mutual trade), - custom unions (unique protection against third countries), - common markets (freely factor moving inside the integration), - economic unions (certain degree of national economic policies charmonisation) and - total economic integrations (unique economic policy and supranational power). Liberalization in the region of South-Eastern Europe started with signing of Memorandum on liberalization and trade easing among countries in that region in 2001 in Brussels. Countries that signed Memorandum agree to conduct mutual agreements on free trade by the end of 2002, and to liberalize at least 90% of reciprocal trade, together with simplifying custom procedures and intensifying trade legislature synchronization with the EU one. Since implementation legged behind signing agreements (more than thirty agreements were signed), it became clear that the very idea to establish free trade association was only on paper. Free trade area idea became real instead, so all South-East Europe countries (except Croatia, that had been it’s member since 2002) on 1 st of May 2007 joined CEFTA (Central European Free Trade Agreement), that is qualitatively different in comparison with original agreement signed by three Central European Countries (Hungary, Czechoslovakia and Poland). Due to that fact, in literature present agreement is often called CEFTA 2006 (agreement is negotiated in Zagreb in 2006), and network of 32 bilateral agreements was replaced by multilateral agreement. At this moment, seven countries are CEFTA members: five of six former Yugoslav republics (all except Slovenia), Albania and Moldova (See table 1). Number of members varied since CEFTA establishing in 1992: foundation members (Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia /then as Czechoslovakia/ in May 2004, in the moment of accession to the EU 313
PART V: abandoned CEFTA membership). Except Croatia, that became member in 2002, all present member countries joined CEFTA during the 2006, while multilateral agreement on free trade became valid on 1 st of May 2007. Table 1: CEFTA member countries Year of Year of Country accession abandoning Croatia 2002 - Montenegro 2006 - Serbia 2006 - Macedonia 2006 - Bosnia and Herzegovina 2006 - Albania 2006 - Moldova 2006 - Romania 1997 2006 Bulgaria 1998 2006 Poland 1992 2004 Hugary 1992 2004 Czech Republic (Czechoslovakia) 1992 2004 Slovakia (Czechoslovakia) 1992 2004 Slovenia 1996 2004 CEFTA 2006 has following features that former bilateral agreements had not: - possibility to apply so-called diagonal cumulating of origin of goods, - introducing gradual service trade liberalization, - improved mechanism for disputes resolving, - intellectual property rights protection, according to the international standards, and - commitment to apply rules of World Trade Organization (WTO) regardless whether CEFTA country member is or is not member of the WTO. 1. Foreign direct investments role in increasing export of CEFTA members Cycle of massive foreign capital inflow to the developing countries, including CEFTA member ones, is ending due to financial crisis. Manu countries, including Serbia, took for granted – as a result of own successes in attracting FDI (foreign direct investments) and acted as this situation is permanent. Three immediate economic policy options are possible in such circumstances: (1) to reduce public consumption over restrictive budget; (2) to increase interest rate and reduce private consumption mainly over more expensive loans; and (3) to allow controlled depreciation of national currency (Petrovic, `2008 p.5). Decline of export demand, together with high structural dependence of national product from import, means that for keeping growth rate positive necessary either to provide even bigger foreign capital inflow than it was by now, or to stimulate domestic demand, which is typically Keynesian approach applied by all developed economies. The very reason why Serbia cannot apply this approach is because no sources to finance major budgetary deficit. Developed economies can count on domestic or foreign sources borrowing, while 314
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PART V:<br />
abandoned CEFTA membership). Except Croatia, that became member in 2002, all present<br />
member countries joined CEFTA during the 2006, while multilateral agreement on free<br />
trade became valid on 1 st of May 2007.<br />
Table 1: CEFTA member countries<br />
Year of<br />
Year of<br />
Country<br />
accession abandoning<br />
Croatia 2002 -<br />
Montenegro 2006 -<br />
Serbia 2006 -<br />
Macedonia 2006 -<br />
Bosnia and Herzegovina 2006 -<br />
Albania 2006 -<br />
Moldova 2006 -<br />
Romania 1997 2006<br />
Bulgaria 1998 2006<br />
Poland 1992 2004<br />
Hugary 1992 2004<br />
Czech Republic (Czechoslovakia) 1992 2004<br />
Slovakia (Czechoslovakia) 1992 2004<br />
Slovenia 1996 2004<br />
CEFTA 2006 has following features that former bilateral agreements had not:<br />
- possibility to apply so-called diagonal cumulating of origin of goods,<br />
- introducing gradual service trade liberalization,<br />
- improved mechanism for disputes resolving,<br />
- intellectual property rights protection, according to the international standards,<br />
and<br />
- commitment to apply rules of World Trade Organization (WTO) regardless<br />
whether CEFTA country member is or is not member of the WTO.<br />
1. Foreign direct investments role in increasing export of CEFTA members<br />
Cycle of massive foreign capital inflow to the developing countries, including CEFTA<br />
member ones, is ending due to financial crisis. Manu countries, including Serbia, took<br />
for granted – as a result of own successes in attracting FDI (foreign direct investments)<br />
and acted as this situation is permanent. Three immediate economic policy options are<br />
possible in such circumstances: (1) to reduce public consumption over restrictive budget;<br />
(2) to increase interest rate and reduce private consumption mainly over more expensive<br />
loans; and (3) to allow controlled depreciation of national currency (Petrovic, `2008 p.5).<br />
Decline of export demand, together with high structural dependence of national product<br />
from import, means that for keeping growth rate positive necessary either to provide even<br />
bigger foreign capital inflow than it was by now, or to stimulate domestic demand, which<br />
is typically Keynesian approach applied by all developed economies. The very reason<br />
why Serbia cannot apply this approach is because no sources to finance major budgetary<br />
deficit. Developed economies can count on domestic or foreign sources borrowing, while<br />
314