REGIONAL COOPERATION AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION

REGIONAL COOPERATION AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION REGIONAL COOPERATION AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION

25.12.2014 Views

Radmila Jovančević, Ph.D., Professor on the Department of Macroeconomics and Economic Development University of Zagreb Faculty of Economics and Business Croatia REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS AND REGIONAL COOPERATION The impact of world economic crisis on the sustainable growth of the South-Eastern European countries: Does regional cooperation matter Abstract The analysis is focused on the sustainable economic growth of South-Eastern European countries (SEE) in the conditions of global economic crisis. Statistical data indicate that those countries experienced slow growth of GDP during the first transition period of 1989 - 1998. During the second 1999 – 2007 period, GDP growth was faster due to higher growth of export, domestic demand and inflows of foreign direct investments (FDI). In 2008, the global financial crisis had an impact on the decreasing growth rate of exports as well as on lower inflows of FDI with the worsening of economic performances and rising unemployment. Since the SEE countries are faced with the rising protectionism at the global and EU markets, the author suggests straightening regional and economic integration by trade facilitation and enhancing inflows of FDI between countries in the region. However, intensive competition, financial crisis and complex adjustment process of the candidates’ countries on the way to the accession to the EU market makes the future growth more difficult. Key words: global crisis, foreign direct investment, regional cooperation Introduction The aim of this paper is to analyse the macroeconomic tendencies in the past twenty years (1989- 2008) in the countries of South Eastern Europe. The coverage includes all countries in the region and for the purpose of analysis they are divided into Western Balkan countries and the countries of transition which are already members of the European Union. The region’s countries have embarked on a steady course towards full EU integration since all of them, (except Serbia and Kosovo) have signed pre-accession agreements (Stabilization and Association Agreements – SAAs). However, the lack of progress regarding the EU candidacy in Serbia, Macedonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina is evident, while Croatia, as a candidate country, has had problems with finalising its negotiations by the end of 2009 because of the bilateral disagreement with Slovenia. Having in mind this adjustment process period towards the EU memberships and at the same time the impact of the global financial crisis on the region’s economy, it is evident that promoting regional cooperation is an economic and trade priority and that tighter relations between the neighbouring countries will be a prerequisite. 17

PART I: The paper examines how Western Balkan countries may achieve a sustainable rate of economic growth comparing them with New EU members from the region (Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovenia). We shall analyse first the macroeconomic indicators during the transition to market economy and then search why sustainable high economic growth has not resulted in a higher employment in the Western Balkan. Finally, we are going to analyze briefly the economic impact of World economic crisis on this region. 1. Macroeconomic performance of South Eastern European countries (SEEs) during the past 20 years The territory of South-Eastern Europe is 859,000 km 2 , or 14.5 per cent of Europe (without Russia). On this territory lived 77.9 millions of inhabitants (in 1989), or 13.4 per cent of the European population (without Russia). At the beginning of 2007 the EU-27 recorded a population of more than 495 million persons. The South Eastern Europe had almost 76 million inhabitants in 2007 (see table 1). Western Balkan countries (WBCs) had together a population representing nearly 5 per cent of the total EU-27 population. During the last twenty years, the population in this region has shrunk by 2,8 per cent. The declining tendencies are much more pronounced in the countries which are already in the EU (-3, 1%) than in Western Balkan (-1, 8%). In the fast growing world population it is unusual that a region has a declining population. It is evident that the region’s participation in the world population decreased from 1,51% in 1989 to only 1,16% in 2007. This fall in the population of the region differs from the past performances in population’s growth in the region and could be explained only by larger emigration and war operations in Western Balkan countries. Since the majority of émigrés were younger, it is quite likely that this tendency of negative rate of population growth will persist. 18 Table 1: Population in South Eastern Europe (in thousands), 1989, 1998, 2007 Population (in 000) Percentage of world Population Region/ Country 1989 1998 2007 1989 2007 Rate of growth 1989- 2007 A. Western Balkan 23732 23952 23294 0.48 0.36 -0.11 Albania Bosnia and 3196 3367 3153 0.06 0.05 0.53 4398 3502 3508 0.09 0.05 Herzegovina Croatia 4501 4265 4441 0.09 0.07 -1.25 -0.08 FYR Macedonia 1891 2015 2042 0.04 0.03 0.43 Montenegro 638 630 625 0.01 0.01 -0.11 Serbia 9108 7583 9525 0.18 0.15 0.23 Kosovo .. 2590 2143 .. .. .. B. EU members 54188 53205 52492 1.03 0.80 -0.17 Bulgaria 8990 7985 7679 0.17 0.12 -0.85 Greece 10056 10579 11172 0.19 0.17 0.58 Hungary 10398 10211 10006 0.20 0.15 -0.23 Romania 22852 22509 21565 0.44 0.33 -0.32 Slovenia 1892 1921 2010 0.04 0.03 0.33 TOTAL 77920 77157 75786 1.51 1.16 -0.18 Source: DZS, Statistical Yearbook of Croatia; Eurostat, Yearbook, various issues

Radmila Jovančević, Ph.D.,<br />

Professor on the Department of<br />

Macroeconomics and Economic Development<br />

University of Zagreb<br />

Faculty of Economics and Business<br />

Croatia<br />

<strong>REGIONAL</strong> TRADE AGREEMENTS <strong>AND</strong> <strong>REGIONAL</strong> <strong>COOPERATION</strong><br />

The impact of world economic crisis on the<br />

sustainable growth of the South-Eastern<br />

European countries: Does regional cooperation<br />

matter<br />

Abstract<br />

The analysis is focused on the sustainable economic growth of South-Eastern European<br />

countries (SEE) in the conditions of global economic crisis. Statistical data indicate that<br />

those countries experienced slow growth of GDP during the first transition period of 1989<br />

- 1998. During the second 1999 – 2007 period, GDP growth was faster due to higher<br />

growth of export, domestic demand and inflows of foreign direct investments (FDI). In<br />

2008, the global financial crisis had an impact on the decreasing growth rate of exports<br />

as well as on lower inflows of FDI with the worsening of economic performances and<br />

rising unemployment. Since the SEE countries are faced with the rising protectionism<br />

at the global and EU markets, the author suggests straightening regional and economic<br />

integration by trade facilitation and enhancing inflows of FDI between countries in the<br />

region. However, intensive competition, financial crisis and complex adjustment process<br />

of the candidates’ countries on the way to the accession to the EU market makes the future<br />

growth more difficult.<br />

Key words: global crisis, foreign direct investment, regional cooperation<br />

Introduction<br />

The aim of this paper is to analyse the macroeconomic tendencies in the past twenty years<br />

(1989- 2008) in the countries of South Eastern Europe. The coverage includes all countries<br />

in the region and for the purpose of analysis they are divided into Western Balkan countries<br />

and the countries of transition which are already members of the European Union. The<br />

region’s countries have embarked on a steady course towards full EU integration since all<br />

of them, (except Serbia and Kosovo) have signed pre-accession agreements (Stabilization<br />

and Association Agreements – SAAs). However, the lack of progress regarding the EU<br />

candidacy in Serbia, Macedonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina is evident, while Croatia,<br />

as a candidate country, has had problems with finalising its negotiations by the end of<br />

2009 because of the bilateral disagreement with Slovenia. Having in mind this adjustment<br />

process period towards the EU memberships and at the same time the impact of the global<br />

financial crisis on the region’s economy, it is evident that promoting regional cooperation is<br />

an economic and trade priority and that tighter relations between the neighbouring countries<br />

will be a prerequisite.<br />

17

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