REGIONAL COOPERATION AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION
REGIONAL COOPERATION AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION REGIONAL COOPERATION AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION
CEFTA-2006 TRADE COOPERATION Table 2: Trade within the region of SEE, 2006 or 2007 (per cent of total) Albania 1) Bosnia & Macedo - Monte - Serbia & Herzego - Croatia 2) nia vina 2) negro Serbia1) Montenegro 1) 2) Kosovo 2) Ex. Im. Ex. Im. Ex. Im. Ex. Im. Ex. Im. Ex. Im. Ex. Im. Ex. Im. Albania 1) - - 0.3 1 1.6 1.6 5 0.9 Bosnia & Herzego - vina 2) 0.32 0.054 20.86 18.50 0.1 0.97 2.75 0.124 9.93 4.27 0.93 0.53 Croatia 2) 0.28 0.01 14.4 2.85 0.95 0.86 1.25 0.03 5.36 1.27 Macedonia 2) 2.17 0.37 2.62 0.66 4.88 2.1 0.82 0.03 19.05 8.58 Montenegro 1) 1.63 0.23 4.55 2.76 1.4 4.07 0.32 1.05 27.41 3) 27.12 3) Kosovo 2) 12.6 2.2 3.2 1.9 1.1 2.5 10.5 15.1 1.8 1.0 11.7 14.1 Serbia 1) 0.97 0.006 12.2 2.8 4.0 2.87 4.5 1.67 11.7 0.72 Source: Calculations are made according to original data obtained from INSTAT (Albania Institute of Statistics); Bosnia and Herzegovina Statistical Office; Central Bureau of Statistics, Croatia; State Statistical Office of the Republic of Macedonia; The Statistical Office of the Republic of Montenegro; The Statistical Office of Kosovo; Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia. Note: 1) Data is for 2006; 2) Data is for 2007; 3) It includes Kosovo as well In order to check such a hypothesis, we look closer into the SEE trade data for the years 2007 or 2006 (results are shown in Table 2) and compare them with the results for the year 1996 when it was shown that history induced trade diversion to the Region (Sekulovska- Gaber 2003, p.300). But, before proceeding further with the analysis we need to clarify certain things. Firstly, since Romania and Bulgaria entered the EU in 2007 and are no more members of CEFTA, they are not included in the analysis. The second thing is the participation of three independent entities (Serbia, Montenegro and Kosovo) in the “place” of Yugoslavia, with the explanation that, if not taken into consideration the declaration of independence of Montenegro, according to the data of some sources, Serbia and Montenegro were taken together. While in 1996, for many SEE countries other countries “in the group” were not important trading partner (a lot of zeros, with an exception perhaps for Republic of Macedonia), mostly because of the inherited divisions, general underdevelopment and overall security problems, figures in Table 2 show that the low levels of trade between SEE countries were overtaken and the “neighbours are back” for most of the countries in the Region (for Albania it is Serbia and Montenegro; for Bosnia and Herzegovina it is Croatia, and vice 175
PART II: versa for Croatia; for Macedonia it is Serbia, as well as for Montenegro; for Kosovo these are Macedonia and Serbia, and finally for Serbia it is Bosnia and Herzegovina). So, the creation and implementation of CEFTA-2006 acts as an incentive for closer integration in the Region, and as Jentisch-Muller pointed out: “...the quickest way to achieve the “Four freedoms” for the movements of goods, services, capital and people is not through a wholesale adaptation of the acquis but rather targeted removal of barriers that currently obstruct these freedoms” (Jentisch-Muller, 2007, p.7). 3. Geographical concentration of imports and exports of the Republic of Macedonia Macedonia’s recent history, like that of most other Balkan countries, begins in the 1990s. No matter the fact that Macedonia peacefully achieved its independence in 1991, it hasn’t had less of a decline in GDP or trade. It took Macedonia until 2003 to return to the 1991 level of GDP (Naghshopour 2008, p. 211). According to the report given by the World bank (WB, February 2008:7), growth was sluggish, but toward the end of the period, Macedonia has experienced considerable growth rates. GDP grew on average 3% annually in real terms and per capita GDP in EUR showed a jump of 26% between 2000 and 2006 (See Table 3). Table 3: Aggregate economic growth indicators of the Republic of Macedonia, 2001-2006 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 GDP/capita (EUR at exch. rate) 1921 1887 1981 2025 2128 2279 2432 GDP real growth 4.5 -4.5 0.9 2.8 4.1 3.8 3.5 Source: “Labor Costs and Labor Taxes in the Western Balkans”, WB, February 2008 Both imports and exports in the Republic of Macedonia had overall positive trends, and in fact, they grew by more than 2.5 times (See Tables 4 and 5). The main nagging problem in this area was that total imports exceed total exports and Macedonian imports from all SEE countries grew faster than exports (from 1.89 times for imports from Croatia; 2.35 times for Serbia and Montenegro; 6.3 times for Albania and 6.47 times for Bosnia and Herzegovina, to 1.91 times increase of exports in Serbia; 3.43 times in Croatia; 3.79 times in Bosnia and Herzegovina and 5.68 times in Albania). The same can not be said for the geographical concentration of Macedonian imports and exports in the Region of SEE, since almost in the whole period, exports exceeded imports in all SEE countries (apart for Croatia in 2000 and for Serbia and Montenegro in 2004, when imports exceeded exports). Looking into the structure of import-export data, it is clear that in the whole period, the most important trading partner of Macedonia was Serbia 5 (always more than 70% in the import, as well as in the export side), while Croatia was on the second place, creating almost ¼ of imports and between 11% and 17% of exports. 5 Before the independence of Montenegro in 2006, data is given for Serbia and Montenegro. 176
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PART II:<br />
versa for Croatia; for Macedonia it is Serbia, as well as for Montenegro; for Kosovo these<br />
are Macedonia and Serbia, and finally for Serbia it is Bosnia and Herzegovina). So, the<br />
creation and implementation of CEFTA-2006 acts as an incentive for closer integration<br />
in the Region, and as Jentisch-Muller pointed out: “...the quickest way to achieve the<br />
“Four freedoms” for the movements of goods, services, capital and people is not through<br />
a wholesale adaptation of the acquis but rather targeted removal of barriers that currently<br />
obstruct these freedoms” (Jentisch-Muller, 2007, p.7).<br />
3. Geographical concentration of imports and exports of the Republic of<br />
Macedonia<br />
Macedonia’s recent history, like that of most other Balkan countries, begins in the 1990s.<br />
No matter the fact that Macedonia peacefully achieved its independence in 1991, it hasn’t<br />
had less of a decline in GDP or trade. It took Macedonia until 2003 to return to the 1991<br />
level of GDP (Naghshopour 2008, p. 211). According to the report given by the World bank<br />
(WB, February 2008:7), growth was sluggish, but toward the end of the period, Macedonia<br />
has experienced considerable growth rates. GDP grew on average 3% annually in real<br />
terms and per capita GDP in EUR showed a jump of 26% between 2000 and 2006 (See<br />
Table 3).<br />
Table 3: Aggregate economic growth indicators of<br />
the Republic of Macedonia, 2001-2006<br />
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006<br />
GDP/capita (EUR at exch. rate) 1921 1887 1981 2025 2128 2279 2432<br />
GDP real growth 4.5 -4.5 0.9 2.8 4.1 3.8 3.5<br />
Source: “Labor Costs and Labor Taxes in the Western Balkans”, WB, February 2008<br />
Both imports and exports in the Republic of Macedonia had overall positive trends, and in<br />
fact, they grew by more than 2.5 times (See Tables 4 and 5). The main nagging problem<br />
in this area was that total imports exceed total exports and Macedonian imports from all<br />
SEE countries grew faster than exports (from 1.89 times for imports from Croatia; 2.35<br />
times for Serbia and Montenegro; 6.3 times for Albania and 6.47 times for Bosnia and<br />
Herzegovina, to 1.91 times increase of exports in Serbia; 3.43 times in Croatia; 3.79 times<br />
in Bosnia and Herzegovina and 5.68 times in Albania).<br />
The same can not be said for the geographical concentration of Macedonian imports and<br />
exports in the Region of SEE, since almost in the whole period, exports exceeded imports<br />
in all SEE countries (apart for Croatia in 2000 and for Serbia and Montenegro in 2004,<br />
when imports exceeded exports). Looking into the structure of import-export data, it is<br />
clear that in the whole period, the most important trading partner of Macedonia was Serbia 5<br />
(always more than 70% in the import, as well as in the export side), while Croatia was on<br />
the second place, creating almost ¼ of imports and between 11% and 17% of exports.<br />
5 Before the independence of Montenegro in 2006, data is given for Serbia and Montenegro.<br />
176