Efforts in Tropical Storm Modeling, Prediction and Projection
Efforts in Tropical Storm Modeling, Prediction and Projection
Efforts in Tropical Storm Modeling, Prediction and Projection
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Summary<br />
• Recorded century-scale <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> Atlantic hurricane<br />
frequency consistent with observ<strong>in</strong>g system changes.<br />
Issues with <strong>in</strong>tensity records rema<strong>in</strong>.<br />
It is premature to conclude we have seen hurricane change due<br />
to CO 2<br />
• Statistical <strong>and</strong> dynamical models allow estimates of future<br />
activity:<br />
• Next couple of decades: <strong>in</strong>ternal variability dom<strong>in</strong>ant player<br />
(some may be predictable, some not)<br />
• NA Hurr. Response to GHG: likely fewer, probably stronger.<br />
• Aerosol forc<strong>in</strong>g <strong>and</strong> response a key uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty & response.<br />
• Encourag<strong>in</strong>g results from long-lead (multi-season <strong>and</strong><br />
multi-year) experimental forecasts us<strong>in</strong>g hybrid system:
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