Efforts in Tropical Storm Modeling, Prediction and Projection

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Experimental decadal hurricane predictions Hybrid system: statistical hurricanes, dynamical decadal climate forecasts • Retrospective predictions encouraging. • However, small sample size limits confidence • Skill arises more from recognizing 1994-1995 shift than actually predicting it. • This is for basinwide North Atlantic Hurricane frequency only. Vecchi et al. (2012 in prep.), see also Smith et al. (2010,
Idealized Forcing Experiments If local SST the dominant control, as opposed to relative SST: •Similar Atlantic Response to Atlantic and Uniform Forcing •Little Pacific Response to Atlantic compared to Uniform
Page 1 and 2: Efforts in Tropical Image: NASA. St
Page 3 and 4: GFDL Hi-Res Global Models In order
Page 5 and 6: N. Tropical Atlantic Climate Improv
Page 7 and 8: Response of TCs in high-resolution
Page 9 and 10: Geographical distribution of TC tra
Page 11 and 12: C180-HiRAM NA Hurricane Projections
Page 13 and 14: Overall frequency decrease projecte
Page 15 and 16: Statistical Models • Build parsim
Page 17 and 18: GFDL-CM3 indicates aerosols key for
Page 19 and 20: Tropical Cyclone Prediction • Dyn
Page 21: Merge multiple tools and understand
Page 25 and 26: Idealized CO2 and 2K Experiments un
Page 27: Snapshots from CM2.6 movie

Efforts in Tropical Storm Modeling, Prediction and Projection

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