Efforts in Tropical Storm Modeling, Prediction and Projection
Efforts in Tropical Storm Modeling, Prediction and Projection
Efforts in Tropical Storm Modeling, Prediction and Projection
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Experimental decadal hurricane predictions<br />
Hybrid system: statistical hurricanes, dynamical decadal climate forecasts<br />
• Retrospective predictions<br />
encourag<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
• However, small sample size limits<br />
confidence<br />
• Skill arises more from recogniz<strong>in</strong>g<br />
1994-1995 shift than actually<br />
predict<strong>in</strong>g it.<br />
• This is for bas<strong>in</strong>wide North Atlantic<br />
Hurricane frequency only.<br />
Vecchi et al. (2012 <strong>in</strong> prep.), see also Smith et al. (2010,
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