Efforts in Tropical Storm Modeling, Prediction and Projection
Efforts in Tropical Storm Modeling, Prediction and Projection
Efforts in Tropical Storm Modeling, Prediction and Projection
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Key uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty sources to projections of decadal TS<br />
activity<br />
<strong>Tropical</strong> Atlantic SSTA<br />
NA TS Frequency<br />
Villar<strong>in</strong>i et al. (2011), Villar<strong>in</strong>i <strong>and</strong> Vecchi (2012, submitted)<br />
Sources of uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty (after Hawk<strong>in</strong>s <strong>and</strong> Sutton, 2009)<br />
•Variability: <strong>in</strong>dependent of radiative forc<strong>in</strong>g changes<br />
•Response: “how will climate respond to chang<strong>in</strong>g GHGs<br />
& Aerosols”<br />
•Forc<strong>in</strong>g: “how will GHGs & Aerosols change <strong>in</strong> the<br />
future”
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