View - ResearchGate

Why the West should Discourage Japanese Military Expansion
and goals [Sata, 2001, p2198]. Pyle writes that Japanese
cooperation,
is not so much the result of shared values as it is of
the realist appraisal of the value of the alliance. …
Japan will seek maximum autonomy for its own
purposes … It will not wish to be hostage to the
global strategy of the United States or to its
relations with China and Korea [Pyle, 2007, p368].
Inoguichi and Bacon hypothesize that the new relationship
might conform to patterns such as the ‘British Model’ of a
special relationship, a ‘German Model’ of ‘regional
embeddedness’ and institutionalism, or a ‘French Model’ of
strong autonomy [Inoguichi, 2006, pp4-5]. But these limited
scenarios echo the sentiment of George Friedman that,
“Conventional political analysis suffers from a profound
failure of imagination” [Friedman, 2009, p3]. While Japanese
political moderates may maintain the current relationship
with America, more nationalistic elements could,
shift Japanese doctrine from a tethered, defensive
realism to an untethered, offensive realism, in which
strategists would be ever alert to exploit
opportunities to expand Japan’s power. … It would
join the other great powers in a permanent struggle
to maximize national strength and influence
[Samuels, 2007, p193].
American domination of Japanese foreign policy helped to
stabilise Asia during the Cold War. Détente with China,
founded on having a common Soviet enemy, would have
been complicated by an independent Japan; and removing
any Japanese threat to Southeast Asia helped to focus their
efforts on combating Communist influence. It is possible that
a newly-militarised Japan may either pose a renewed threat
to other Asian states, and thus generate instability, or
alternatively enhance its relationship with regional powers
like China, potentially to the detriment of US regional
influence.
316