Left Brain Right B - the DBS Vickers Securities Equities Research
Left Brain Right B - the DBS Vickers Securities Equities Research Left Brain Right B - the DBS Vickers Securities Equities Research
Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Country Assessment Stronger quarterly net profit growth (RMm) 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - Source: DBS Vickers 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 5.0% upgrade in 2009 universe earnings. Following the 2Q09 results season, we lift 2009 and 2010 universe earnings by 5.0% and 7.5% respectively. This was much stronger than upgrades in 1Q09 (+0.1% for 2009 and 3.4% for 2010). The big lift came from the banks - BCHB, Hong Leong Bank, AMMB and EON Capital – and Sime Darby and PPB Group for reasons mentioned earlier. 2Q09 Net Profit Growth (RMm) 2Q08 1Q09 2Q09 % chg y-o-y % chg q-o-q Banking 2,345.1 2,400.9 2,660.2 13 11 Non-bank financial 28.6 15.5 35.0 22 126 Consumer 300.0 475.7 501.6 67 5 Manufacturing/Industrial 415.9 (62.2) 36.3 -91 -158 Media (2.6) (28.9) 34.5 nm -219 Motor 244.3 127.6 162.0 -34 27 Oil & Gas 166.8 202.3 144.8 -13 -28 Conglomerate 1,354.4 422.4 1,381.5 2 227 Construction 319.9 258.8 285.3 -11 10 Concessionaires 300.3 298.0 281.3 -6 -6 Gaming 709.6 646.3 605.8 -15 -6 Plantation 1,073.1 223.7 716.6 -33 220 Utility 1,053.5 1,307.1 931.0 -12 -29 Property 188.1 104.4 187.1 -1 79 Telecommunication 774.8 468.1 778.5 0 66 Transportation/Logistic 766.5 (356.4) (380.4) -150 7 Total 10,038.2 6,503.3 8,361.1 -17 29 Source: DBS Vickers Earnings contraction this year reduced. Following our earnings upgrade, we expect 8.2% earnings contraction in 2009. The key drag on earnings will come from Plantation and Conglomerates (Sime Darby and PPB Group), on lower CPO price assumptions of RM2,300/t versus RM2,864/mt in 2008, as well as one-offs (forex losses for IOI). We also expect weaker earnings for Genting (Spore pre-operating expenses, lower plantation earnings) and Manufacturing (lower steel prices). Rebound next year. In 2010, we expect a 15.4% rebound in earnings, largely on lower provisions and higher noninterest income (recovery in capital markets) for banks, absence of forex losses (for plantation) and a recovery in power demand for Tenaga. Page 97
Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Country Assessment Malaysia Universe: Earnings Growth by Sector Net profit ex EI Earnings Growth %) PE (x) 2008 2009F 2010F 2008 2009F 2010F 2008 2009F 2010F Financial 10,362 10,539 11,885 5.2 1.7 12.8 16.0 15.7 14.0 Consumer 1,677 1,796 1,925 1.3 7.1 7.2 16.6 15.5 14.4 Manufacturing/Industrial 575 371 520 (16.4) (35.4) 40.0 9.4 14.6 10.4 Media 158 164 192 (49.0) 3.7 17.3 42.3 40.8 34.8 Motor 613 487 693 8.5 (20.6) 42.3 16.9 21.3 15.0 Oil & Gas 624 699 760 42.0 11.9 8.7 11.1 9.9 9.1 Conglomerate 4,799 3,686 4,102 64.5 (23.2) 11.3 14.6 19.1 17.1 Construction 1,161 1,183 1,559 17.8 1.9 31.8 19.5 19.1 14.5 Concessionaires 1,182 1,261 1,316 (7.9) 6.7 4.4 15.1 14.2 13.6 Gaming 2,842 1,924 2,523 4.0 (32.3) 31.1 14.4 21.3 16.2 Plantation 4,070 2,079 2,987 46.3 (48.9) 43.7 13.9 27.3 19.0 Power 4,991 4,746 5,031 (22.0) (4.9) 6.0 14.9 15.7 14.8 Property 691 776 887 (9.3) 12.3 14.3 17.8 15.9 13.9 Telecommunication 2,503 2,528 2,813 (35.1) 1.0 11.3 22.0 21.8 19.6 Transportation/Logistic ^ 1,220 2,171 2,498 (51.8) 78.0 15.1 33.2 18.7 16.2 HDBSVR’s universe 37,467 34,408 39,690 (0.8) (8.2) 15.4 16.4 17.8 15.5 Notes: (1) Companies with financial year ending Jan – Mar have been classified as preceding year’s results. (2) Earnings exclude exceptional items. (3) Excludes MAS Source: DBS Vickers Net Profit Change by Sector Ex-MAS RM'm 2009 2010 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 - (500) (1,000) (1,500) (2,000) (2,500) 1346 177 Financial 119 129 149 6 28 (204) Consumer Manufacturing/Industrial Media 206 (126) Motor 61 416 74 (1113) Oil & Gas Conglomerate 376 22 79 56 Construction Concessionaires (918) 599 Gaming 908 (244) (1991) Plantation Power 285 85111 Property 951 285 327 24 Telecommunication Transportation/Logistic Source: DBS Vickers Page 98
- Page 48 and 49: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Co
- Page 50 and 51: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Co
- Page 52 and 53: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Co
- Page 54 and 55: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Co
- Page 56 and 57: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Mo
- Page 58 and 59: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Si
- Page 60 and 61: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 SP
- Page 62 and 63: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Su
- Page 64 and 65: Income Statement (S$ m) Balance She
- Page 66 and 67: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Co
- Page 68 and 69: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Co
- Page 70 and 71: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Co
- Page 72 and 73: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Co
- Page 74 and 75: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Co
- Page 76 and 77: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Co
- Page 78 and 79: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Co
- Page 80 and 81: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Co
- Page 82 and 83: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Ba
- Page 84 and 85: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Ba
- Page 86 and 87: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Ch
- Page 88 and 89: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Ch
- Page 90 and 91: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 MT
- Page 92 and 93: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Co
- Page 94 and 95: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Co
- Page 96 and 97: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Co
- Page 100 and 101: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Co
- Page 102 and 103: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Co
- Page 104 and 105: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Co
- Page 106 and 107: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Co
- Page 108 and 109: Income Statement (RM m) Balance She
- Page 110 and 111: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 MI
- Page 112 and 113: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Co
- Page 114 and 115: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Co
- Page 116 and 117: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Co
- Page 118 and 119: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Co
- Page 120 and 121: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Co
- Page 122 and 123: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Co
- Page 124 and 125: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Co
- Page 126 and 127: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Si
- Page 128 and 129: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Th
- Page 130 and 131: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 To
- Page 132 and 133: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Co
- Page 134 and 135: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Co
- Page 136 and 137: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Co
- Page 138 and 139: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Co
- Page 140 and 141: Income Statement (Rp bn) Balance Sh
- Page 142 and 143: Income Statement (Rp bn) Balance Sh
- Page 144: Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 2)
Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009<br />
Country Assessment<br />
Malaysia Universe: Earnings Growth by Sector<br />
Net profit ex EI Earnings Growth %) PE (x)<br />
2008 2009F 2010F 2008 2009F 2010F 2008 2009F 2010F<br />
Financial 10,362 10,539 11,885 5.2 1.7 12.8 16.0 15.7 14.0<br />
Consumer 1,677 1,796 1,925 1.3 7.1 7.2 16.6 15.5 14.4<br />
Manufacturing/Industrial 575 371 520 (16.4) (35.4) 40.0 9.4 14.6 10.4<br />
Media 158 164 192 (49.0) 3.7 17.3 42.3 40.8 34.8<br />
Motor 613 487 693 8.5 (20.6) 42.3 16.9 21.3 15.0<br />
Oil & Gas 624 699 760 42.0 11.9 8.7 11.1 9.9 9.1<br />
Conglomerate 4,799 3,686 4,102 64.5 (23.2) 11.3 14.6 19.1 17.1<br />
Construction 1,161 1,183 1,559 17.8 1.9 31.8 19.5 19.1 14.5<br />
Concessionaires 1,182 1,261 1,316 (7.9) 6.7 4.4 15.1 14.2 13.6<br />
Gaming 2,842 1,924 2,523 4.0 (32.3) 31.1 14.4 21.3 16.2<br />
Plantation 4,070 2,079 2,987 46.3 (48.9) 43.7 13.9 27.3 19.0<br />
Power 4,991 4,746 5,031 (22.0) (4.9) 6.0 14.9 15.7 14.8<br />
Property 691 776 887 (9.3) 12.3 14.3 17.8 15.9 13.9<br />
Telecommunication 2,503 2,528 2,813 (35.1) 1.0 11.3 22.0 21.8 19.6<br />
Transportation/Logistic ^ 1,220 2,171 2,498 (51.8) 78.0 15.1 33.2 18.7 16.2<br />
H<strong>DBS</strong>VR’s universe 37,467 34,408 39,690 (0.8) (8.2) 15.4 16.4 17.8 15.5<br />
Notes: (1) Companies with financial year ending Jan – Mar have been classified as preceding year’s results.<br />
(2) Earnings exclude exceptional items.<br />
(3) Excludes MAS<br />
Source: <strong>DBS</strong> <strong>Vickers</strong><br />
Net Profit Change by Sector Ex-MAS<br />
RM'm 2009 2010<br />
2,000<br />
1,500<br />
1,000<br />
500<br />
-<br />
(500)<br />
(1,000)<br />
(1,500)<br />
(2,000)<br />
(2,500)<br />
1346<br />
177<br />
Financial<br />
119 129 149 6 28<br />
(204)<br />
Consumer<br />
Manufacturing/Industrial<br />
Media<br />
206<br />
(126)<br />
Motor<br />
61 416<br />
74<br />
(1113)<br />
Oil & Gas<br />
Conglomerate<br />
376<br />
22 79<br />
56<br />
Construction<br />
Concessionaires<br />
(918)<br />
599<br />
Gaming<br />
908<br />
(244)<br />
(1991)<br />
Plantation<br />
Power<br />
285<br />
85111<br />
Property<br />
951<br />
285 327<br />
24<br />
Telecommunication<br />
Transportation/Logistic<br />
Source: <strong>DBS</strong> <strong>Vickers</strong><br />
Page 98
Change language