Left Brain Right B - the DBS Vickers Securities Equities Research
Left Brain Right B - the DBS Vickers Securities Equities Research Left Brain Right B - the DBS Vickers Securities Equities Research
Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Strategy Overview: Asia Equity Fig. 28: Hong Kong: Price to book 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 Source: Datastream Fig. 29: Hong Kong Banks Price to book 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 Source: Datastream Fig. 30: Hong Kong Industrials Price to book 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 Source: Datastream Accordingly our 3-month target is at 22608. On a 12-month basis, we are looking at HSI potentially at 28688 by end of 2010, based on the peak cycle (plus one standard deviation) P/E valuation and current earnings growth forecast of 14%. More earnings upgrade potential Earnings upgrade after the half-year result season has been strong. 2010 earnings growth remains at 14% but 2009 forecast earnings growth has climbed steadily from -15% in April to -5%. We believe it is quite likely that 2009 growth estimates may turn positive in the next few months, considering the strong half-year results. Our GDP growth for Hong Kong was revised up from -6.5% to -2.4%. The nominal GDP and earnings model indicate an upside growth of 40% for 2010F (consensus 14%, DBSV 22%), which we believe it is likely that part of the growth will be front loaded to 2009. Fig. 31: Hong Kong: 2009 EPS growth forecast trend and 3-month EPS revision trend -4.0 -6.0 -8.0 -10.0 -12.0 -14.0 -16.0 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2009 EPS growth forecast trend (LHS) 3-mth % revisions in FY1 EPS (RHS) Source: DBS, Datastream Fig. 32: Hong Kong GDP and EPS Index 750 650 550 450 350 250 150 50 (index) 90 92 94 96 GDP level Source: DBS, Datastream 98 Forecasts to return to precrisis levels 00 02 04 06 08 EPS level 10 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 Page 19
Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Strategy Overview: Asia Equity Thailand - Poised for domestic and external upturn Thai market has performed remarkably well since we upgraded the market to Neutral last quarter. Improving economic numbers, ample liquidity, easing political tension and strong foreign funds flow contributed to the 16% performance for the quarter. We continue to expect Thailand to trade in line with the region given the low interest rate environment and demand driven by fiscal boost. An improving external environment should also lift Thailand's growth prospects. The big picture we are expecting is one of a large sequential pickup in GDP in 3Q, similar to that witnessed in 2Q, followed by a moderation in growth pace to a circa 4% annual rate from 3Q onwards. We recommend an increased position in Banks, property and selected undervalued Energy stocks. We choose Thailand as a valuation laggard and recommend Overweight in the fourth quarter. Taiwan and Korea benefiting from synchronized global upturn In view of the synchronized global upturn scenario, we are raising our recommendation for Taiwan and Korea to Overweight. This is in view of the proportionately larger exposure in Industrials and technology, which should benefit from the upturn. A stronger won forecast now also justifies an upgrade in the Korean market as investors seek both currency and stock gains which move closely in tandem in the relatively more open financial account. Page 20
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Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009<br />
Strategy Overview: Asia Equity<br />
Thailand - Poised for domestic and external upturn<br />
Thai market has performed remarkably well since we upgraded<br />
<strong>the</strong> market to Neutral last quarter. Improving economic<br />
numbers, ample liquidity, easing political tension and strong<br />
foreign funds flow contributed to <strong>the</strong> 16% performance for<br />
<strong>the</strong> quarter. We continue to expect Thailand to trade in line<br />
with <strong>the</strong> region given <strong>the</strong> low interest rate environment and<br />
demand driven by fiscal boost. An improving external<br />
environment should also lift Thailand's growth prospects. The<br />
big picture we are expecting is one of a large sequential pickup<br />
in GDP in 3Q, similar to that witnessed in 2Q, followed by a<br />
moderation in growth pace to a circa 4% annual rate from 3Q<br />
onwards. We recommend an increased position in Banks,<br />
property and selected undervalued Energy stocks. We choose<br />
Thailand as a valuation laggard and recommend Overweight in<br />
<strong>the</strong> fourth quarter.<br />
Taiwan and Korea benefiting from synchronized global<br />
upturn<br />
In view of <strong>the</strong> synchronized global upturn scenario, we are<br />
raising our recommendation for Taiwan and Korea to<br />
Overweight. This is in view of <strong>the</strong> proportionately larger<br />
exposure in Industrials and technology, which should benefit<br />
from <strong>the</strong> upturn. A stronger won forecast now also justifies an<br />
upgrade in <strong>the</strong> Korean market as investors seek both currency<br />
and stock gains which move closely in tandem in <strong>the</strong> relatively<br />
more open financial account.<br />
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