Left Brain Right B - the DBS Vickers Securities Equities Research
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Left Brain Right B - the DBS Vickers Securities Equities Research

Left Brain Right B - the DBS Vickers Securities Equities Research Left Brain Right B - the DBS Vickers Securities Equities Research

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Income Statement (Rp bn) Balance Sheet (Rp bn) Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 Bukit Asam FY Dec 2008A 2009F 2010F 2011F FY Dec 2008A 2009F 2010F 2011F Turnover 7,216 10,097 10,781 12,168 Net Fixed Assets 583 1,940 4,828 8,033 Cost of Goods Sold (3,686) (3,962) (4,750) (5,144) Invts in Associates & JVs 0 0 0 0 Gross Profit 3,530 6,135 6,031 7,024 Other LT Assets 574 591 609 627 Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (1,036) (1,616) (1,941) (2,190) Cash & ST Invts 3,042 4,663 4,936 5,643 Operating Profit 2,494 4,520 4,090 4,834 Inventory 420 529 635 687 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc (51) 0 0 0 Debtors 1,377 1,982 2,116 2,389 Associates & JV Inc 1 1 2 2 Other Current Assets 112 112 112 112 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc 108 (36) (278) (625) Total Assets 6,107 9,817 13,236 17,491 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0 0 Pre-tax Profit 2,552 4,485 3,814 4,210 ST Debt 0 0 0 0 Tax (837) (1,256) (954) (1,053) Other Current Liab 1,353 1,382 1,401 1,411 Minority Interest (7) (10) (10) (12) LT Debt 0 1,282 3,441 5,966 Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 Other LT Liabilities 676 710 710 710 Net Profit 1,708 3,220 2,851 3,146 Shareholder’s Equity 3,998 6,364 7,605 9,326 Net Profit before Except. 1,708 3,220 2,851 3,146 Minority Interests 80 80 80 80 EBITDA 2,514 4,620 4,288 5,237 Total Cap. & Liab. 6,107 9,817 13,236 17,491 Sales Gth (%) 75.0 39.9 6.8 12.9 Non-Cash Wkg. Capital 555 1,241 1,462 1,777 EBITDA Gth (%) 138.7 83.7 (7.2) 22.1 Net Cash/(Debt) 3,042 3,381 1,495 (322) Opg Profit Gth (%) 163.7 81.2 (9.5) 18.2 Net Profit Gth (%) 124.6 88.5 (11.5) 10.4 Effective Tax Rate (%) 32.8 28.0 25.0 25.0 Cash Flow Statement (Rp bn) Rates & Ratio FY Dec 2008A 2009F 2010F 2011F FY Dec 2008A 2009F 2010F 2011F Pre-Tax Profit 2,552 4,485 3,814 4,210 Gross Margins (%) 48.9 60.8 55.9 57.7 Dep. & Amort. 70 99 196 402 Opg Profit Margin (%) 34.6 44.8 37.9 39.7 Tax Paid (837) (1,256) (954) (1,053) Net Profit Margin (%) 23.7 31.9 26.4 25.9 Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) 0 0 0 0 ROAE (%) 50.2 62.1 40.8 37.2 Chg in Wkg.Cap. (995) (686) (220) (315) ROA (%) 34.0 40.4 24.7 20.5 Other Operating CF 838 (27) (28) (30) ROCE (%) 42.0 49.3 30.3 26.0 Net Operating CF 1,628 2,615 2,809 3,214 Div Payout Ratio (%) 22.3 26.5 56.5 45.3 Capital Exp.(net) (429) (1,456) (3,084) (3,606) Net Interest Cover (x) NM 125.9 14.7 7.7 Other Invts.(net) 0 0 0 0 Asset Turnover (x) 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.8 Invts in Assoc. & JV 0 0 0 0 Debtors Turn (avg days) 49.0 60.7 69.4 67.6 Div from Assoc & JV 0 0 0 0 Creditors Turn (avg days) 8.5 7.9 8.6 9.4 Other Investing CF 0 34 0 0 Inventory Turn (avg days) 34.9 44.9 46.7 50.9 Net Investing CF (429) (1,422) (3,084) (3,606) Current Ratio (x) 3.7 5.3 5.6 6.3 Div Paid 0 (854) (1,610) (1,425) Quick Ratio (x) 3.3 4.8 5.0 5.7 Chg in Gross Debt 0 1,282 2,159 2,524 Net Debt/Equity (X) CASH CASH CASH 0.0 Capital Issues 0 0 0 0 Net Debt/Equity ex MI (X) (0.8) (0.5) (0.2) 0.0 Other Financing CF (380) 0 0 0 Capex to Debt (%) N/A 113.6 89.6 60.5 Net Financing CF (380) 428 549 1,099 Z-Score (X) 7.7 7.7 9.5 6.4 Net Cashflow 819 1,621 273 707 N. Cash/(Debt)PS (Rp) 1,320 1,467 649 (140) Opg CFPS (Rp) 1,138 1,433 1,315 1,532 Free CFPS (Rp) 520 503 (120) (170) Quarterly / Interim Income Statement (Rp bn) Segmental Breakdown / Key Assumptions FY Dec 3Q2008 4Q2008 1Q2009 2Q2009 FY Dec 2008A 2009F 2010F 2011F Turnover 2,079 2,249 2,330 2,171 Revenues (Rp bn) Cost of Goods Sold (975) (1,181) (874) (952) Domestic 4,242 6,833 6,506 6,638 Gross Profit 1,103 1,068 1,457 1,218 Export 2,974 3,264 4,275 5,530 Other Oper. (Exp)/Inc (294) (343) (271) (319) Operating Profit 809 725 1,186 900 Total 7,216 10,097 10,781 12,168 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 28 (80) 40 (17) Associates & JV Inc 0 1 0 0 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc 29 37 65 63 Key Assumptions Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0 0 Sales Volume-mn tons 12 14 16 18 Pre-tax Profit 866 683 1,291 946 Price Domestic (IDR'000/ton) 544 723 678 656 Tax (254) (288) (371) (273) Minority Interest (1) (9) 1 (1) Net Profit 611 386 921 672 Net profit bef Except. 611 386 921 672 EBITDA 837 646 1,226 883 Sales Gth (%) 25.7 8.2 3.6 (6.9) EBITDA Gth (%) 46.0 (22.8) 89.7 (28.0) Opg Profit Gth (%) 43.1 (10.4) 63.5 (24.1) Net Profit Gth (%) 44.1 (36.8) 138.3 (27.0) Gross Margins (%) 53.1 47.5 62.5 56.1 Opg Profit Margins (%) 38.9 32.2 50.9 41.4 Net Profit Margins (%) 29.4 17.2 39.5 30.9 Source: Company, DBS Vickers Page 141

Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009 DBSV recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows: STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame) BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps) HOLD (-10 to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10 to +10% for large caps) FULLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months) SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame) Share price appreciation + dividends DBS Vickers Research is available on the following electronic platforms: DBS Vickers (www.dbsvresearch.com); Thomson (www.thomson.com/financial); Factset (www.factset.com); Reuters (www.rbr.reuters.com); Capital IQ (www.capitaliq.com) and Bloomberg (DBSR GO). For access, please contact your DBSV salesperson. GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER This document is published by DBS Vickers Research (Singapore) Pte Ltd ("DBSVR"), a direct wholly-owned subsidiary of DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd ("DBSVS") and an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of DBS Vickers Securities Holdings Pte Ltd ("DBSVH"). [This report is intended for clients of DBSV Group only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of DBSVR.] The research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendation contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. DBSVR accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or further communication given in relation to this document. This document is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. DBSVH is a whollyowned subsidiary of DBS Bank Ltd. DBS Bank Ltd along with its affiliates and/or persons associated with any of them may from time to time have interests in the securities mentioned in this document. DBSVR, DBSVS, DBS Bank Ltd and their associates, their directors, and/or employees may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking services for these companies. The assumptions on commodities used in this report are for the purpose of making forecasts for the companies mentioned herein. They are not to be construed as recommendations to trade in the physical commodities or in the futures contract relating to the commodities mentioned in the report. DBSVUSA does not have its own investment banking or research department, nor has it participated in any investment banking transaction as a manager or co-manager in the past twelve months. Any US persons wishing to obtain further information, including any clarification on disclosures in this disclaimer, or to effect a transaction in any security discussed in this document should contact DBSVUSA exclusively. ANALYST CERTIFICATION The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the companies and their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. As of 25 Sep 2009, the analyst and his / her spouse and/or relatives who are financially dependent on the analyst, do not hold interests in the securities recommended in this report (“interest” includes direct or indirect ownership of securities, directorships and trustee positions). COMPANY-SPECIFIC / REGULATORY DISCLOSURES 1. DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd and its subsidiaries do not have a proprietary position in the mentioned company as of 23 Sep 2009 2. DBSVR, DBSVS, DBS Bank Ltd and/or other affiliates of DBS Vickers Securities (USA) Inc ("DBSVUSA"), a U.S.-registered broker-dealer, beneficially own a total of 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of Suntec Reit, Capitaland as of 25 Sep 2009. 3. Compensation for investment banking services: 1) DBSVR, DBSVS, DBS Bank Ltd and/or other affiliates of DBSVUSA have received compensation, within the past 12 months, and within the next 3 months may receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the Capitaland, A-Reit, Kencana Agri, SIA, Hyflux. DBSVHK, DBSVR, DBSVS, DBS Bank Ltd and/or other affiliates of DBSVUSA have received compensation, within the past 12 months, and within the next 3 months may receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Asia Cement (743 HK), China South Locomotive (1766 HK), Huaneng Power (902 HK) and Shimao Property (813 HK) mentioned in this document. Page 142

Income Statement (Rp bn)<br />

Balance Sheet (Rp bn)<br />

Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009<br />

Bukit Asam<br />

FY Dec 2008A 2009F 2010F 2011F FY Dec 2008A 2009F 2010F 2011F<br />

Turnover 7,216 10,097 10,781 12,168 Net Fixed Assets 583 1,940 4,828 8,033<br />

Cost of Goods Sold (3,686) (3,962) (4,750) (5,144) Invts in Associates & JVs 0 0 0 0<br />

Gross Profit 3,530 6,135 6,031 7,024 O<strong>the</strong>r LT Assets 574 591 609 627<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r Opng (Exp)/Inc (1,036) (1,616) (1,941) (2,190) Cash & ST Invts 3,042 4,663 4,936 5,643<br />

Operating Profit 2,494 4,520 4,090 4,834 Inventory 420 529 635 687<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r Non Opg (Exp)/Inc (51) 0 0 0 Debtors 1,377 1,982 2,116 2,389<br />

Associates & JV Inc 1 1 2 2 O<strong>the</strong>r Current Assets 112 112 112 112<br />

Net Interest (Exp)/Inc 108 (36) (278) (625) Total Assets 6,107 9,817 13,236 17,491<br />

Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0 0<br />

Pre-tax Profit 2,552 4,485 3,814 4,210 ST Debt 0 0 0 0<br />

Tax (837) (1,256) (954) (1,053) O<strong>the</strong>r Current Liab 1,353 1,382 1,401 1,411<br />

Minority Interest (7) (10) (10) (12) LT Debt 0 1,282 3,441 5,966<br />

Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 O<strong>the</strong>r LT Liabilities 676 710 710 710<br />

Net Profit 1,708 3,220 2,851 3,146 Shareholder’s Equity 3,998 6,364 7,605 9,326<br />

Net Profit before Except. 1,708 3,220 2,851 3,146 Minority Interests 80 80 80 80<br />

EBITDA 2,514 4,620 4,288 5,237 Total Cap. & Liab. 6,107 9,817 13,236 17,491<br />

Sales Gth (%) 75.0 39.9 6.8 12.9 Non-Cash Wkg. Capital 555 1,241 1,462 1,777<br />

EBITDA Gth (%) 138.7 83.7 (7.2) 22.1 Net Cash/(Debt) 3,042 3,381 1,495 (322)<br />

Opg Profit Gth (%) 163.7 81.2 (9.5) 18.2<br />

Net Profit Gth (%) 124.6 88.5 (11.5) 10.4<br />

Effective Tax Rate (%) 32.8 28.0 25.0 25.0<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rp bn)<br />

Rates & Ratio<br />

FY Dec 2008A 2009F 2010F 2011F FY Dec 2008A 2009F 2010F 2011F<br />

Pre-Tax Profit 2,552 4,485 3,814 4,210 Gross Margins (%) 48.9 60.8 55.9 57.7<br />

Dep. & Amort. 70 99 196 402 Opg Profit Margin (%) 34.6 44.8 37.9 39.7<br />

Tax Paid (837) (1,256) (954) (1,053) Net Profit Margin (%) 23.7 31.9 26.4 25.9<br />

Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) 0 0 0 0 ROAE (%) 50.2 62.1 40.8 37.2<br />

Chg in Wkg.Cap. (995) (686) (220) (315) ROA (%) 34.0 40.4 24.7 20.5<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r Operating CF 838 (27) (28) (30) ROCE (%) 42.0 49.3 30.3 26.0<br />

Net Operating CF 1,628 2,615 2,809 3,214 Div Payout Ratio (%) 22.3 26.5 56.5 45.3<br />

Capital Exp.(net) (429) (1,456) (3,084) (3,606) Net Interest Cover (x) NM 125.9 14.7 7.7<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r Invts.(net) 0 0 0 0 Asset Turnover (x) 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.8<br />

Invts in Assoc. & JV 0 0 0 0 Debtors Turn (avg days) 49.0 60.7 69.4 67.6<br />

Div from Assoc & JV 0 0 0 0 Creditors Turn (avg days) 8.5 7.9 8.6 9.4<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r Investing CF 0 34 0 0 Inventory Turn (avg days) 34.9 44.9 46.7 50.9<br />

Net Investing CF (429) (1,422) (3,084) (3,606) Current Ratio (x) 3.7 5.3 5.6 6.3<br />

Div Paid 0 (854) (1,610) (1,425) Quick Ratio (x) 3.3 4.8 5.0 5.7<br />

Chg in Gross Debt 0 1,282 2,159 2,524 Net Debt/Equity (X) CASH CASH CASH 0.0<br />

Capital Issues 0 0 0 0 Net Debt/Equity ex MI (X) (0.8) (0.5) (0.2) 0.0<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r Financing CF (380) 0 0 0 Capex to Debt (%) N/A 113.6 89.6 60.5<br />

Net Financing CF (380) 428 549 1,099 Z-Score (X) 7.7 7.7 9.5 6.4<br />

Net Cashflow 819 1,621 273 707 N. Cash/(Debt)PS (Rp) 1,320 1,467 649 (140)<br />

Opg CFPS (Rp) 1,138 1,433 1,315 1,532<br />

Free CFPS (Rp) 520 503 (120) (170)<br />

Quarterly / Interim Income Statement (Rp bn)<br />

Segmental Breakdown / Key Assumptions<br />

FY Dec 3Q2008 4Q2008 1Q2009 2Q2009 FY Dec 2008A 2009F 2010F 2011F<br />

Turnover 2,079 2,249 2,330 2,171 Revenues (Rp bn)<br />

Cost of Goods Sold (975) (1,181) (874) (952) Domestic 4,242 6,833 6,506 6,638<br />

Gross Profit 1,103 1,068 1,457 1,218 Export 2,974 3,264 4,275 5,530<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r Oper. (Exp)/Inc (294) (343) (271) (319)<br />

Operating Profit 809 725 1,186 900 Total 7,216 10,097 10,781 12,168<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 28 (80) 40 (17)<br />

Associates & JV Inc 0 1 0 0<br />

Net Interest (Exp)/Inc 29 37 65 63 Key Assumptions<br />

Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0 0 Sales Volume-mn tons 12 14 16 18<br />

Pre-tax Profit 866 683 1,291 946 Price Domestic (IDR'000/ton) 544 723 678 656<br />

Tax (254) (288) (371) (273)<br />

Minority Interest (1) (9) 1 (1)<br />

Net Profit 611 386 921 672<br />

Net profit bef Except. 611 386 921 672<br />

EBITDA 837 646 1,226 883<br />

Sales Gth (%) 25.7 8.2 3.6 (6.9)<br />

EBITDA Gth (%) 46.0 (22.8) 89.7 (28.0)<br />

Opg Profit Gth (%) 43.1 (10.4) 63.5 (24.1)<br />

Net Profit Gth (%) 44.1 (36.8) 138.3 (27.0)<br />

Gross Margins (%) 53.1 47.5 62.5 56.1<br />

Opg Profit Margins (%) 38.9 32.2 50.9 41.4<br />

Net Profit Margins (%) 29.4 17.2 39.5 30.9<br />

Source: Company, <strong>DBS</strong> <strong>Vickers</strong><br />

Page 141

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