Left Brain Right B - the DBS Vickers Securities Equities Research

Regional Equity Strategy 4Q 2009
Total Access Communication
Income Statement (Bt m) Balance Sheet (Bt m)
FY Dec 2008A 2009F 2010F 2011F FY Dec 2008A 2009F 2010F 2011F
Turnover 67,695 66,672 68,616 70,154 Fixed assets 82,972 79,867 78,742 78,011
EBITDA 20,773 19,581 21,602 22,306 Other LT Assets 4,860 5,057 5,310 5,575
Depr/Amort (9,293) (9,668) (10,205) (9,835) Cash/ST Investments 7,082 6,100 5,711 7,034
Opg Profit 11,480 9,912 11,398 12,471 Other Current Assets 9,521 10,303 10,603 10,841
Asso & Other Inc 38 63 80 104 Total Assets 104,435 101,327 100,366 101,461
Interest (Exp)/Inc (1,396) (1,277) (863) (461) ST Debt 11,097 3,000 - -
Pre-Tax Profit 10,122 8,699 10,615 12,114 Other Current Liabilities 16,484 17,601 18,184 18,826
Tax (2,558) (2,212) (2,697) (3,770) LT Debt 17,291 18,300 13,785 8,271
Minority Interest 4 3 4 4 Minority Interests 41 38 34 29
Extra & Forex 1,761 - - - Shareholders' equity 59,450 62,389 68,364 74,335
Net Profit 9,329 6,491 7,922 8,348 Total Capital 104,435 101,327 100,366 101,461
Sales Growth (%) 3.2 (1.5) 2.9 2.2 Share Capital (m) 2,368 2,368 2,368 2,368
Net Profit Gr (%) 59.7 (30.4) 22.1 5.4 Net cash/(debt) (20,990) (14,900) (7,789) (966)
EBITDA Mgn (%) 30.7 29.4 31.5 31.8 Working capital 6,963 7,297 7,581 7,985
Tax Rate (%) 25.4 25.3 25.3 31.0 Gearing (%) 47.2 33.6 19.7 10.8
Cash Flow Statement (Bt m)
Rates & Ratio
FY Dec 2008A 2009F 2010F 2011F FY Dec 2008A 2009F 2010F 2011F
EBITDA 20,731 19,538 21,557 22,259 ROE (%) 16.8 10.7 12.1 11.7
Working Capital 2,880 (354) (362) (272) ROA (%) 9.1 6.3 7.9 8.3
Taxes Paid (3,526) (2,231) (2,583) (3,576) Net Margin (%) 13.8 9.7 11.5 11.9
(i) Operatiing FCF 20,085 16,953 18,612 18,411 Div. Coverage (x) 2.6 3.3 3.3 3.3
Net Interest Payment (911) (875) (575) (233) Interst Coverage (x) 6.6 6.9 11.3 19.8
(ii) Net FCF 19,173 16,078 18,037 18,177 Asset Turnover (x) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7
Cash Flow from Investing (10,729) (6,436) (8,979) (8,978) Asset/Debt (x) 3.7 4.8 7.4 12.7
(iii) Residual Cash Flow 8,444 9,642 9,058 9,200 Gearing (%) 47.2 33.6 19.7 10.8
Cash Flow from Equity (1,749) (3,552) (1,947) (2,377) Net Gearing (%) 35.3 23.9 11.4 1.3
Change in Net Cash/Debt 6,695 6,090 7,111 6,823 Debt/EBITDA (x) 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.4
Ending Net Cash/Debt (20,990) (14,900) (7,789) (966) Debt/ Market Cap (x) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1
Gross CF/Shr (Bt) 7.8 6.8 7.6 7.6 Capex/Debt (x) 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.1
CF Opera/Shr (Bt) 8.3 7.4 8.1 8.0 Capex/Sales (x) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Net FCF/Shr (Bt) 8.1 6.8 7.6 7.7 EV (Btbn) 122 116 109 102
CF Int. Cover (x) 0.2 11.5 18.0 28.5 EV/EBITDA (x) 5.9 5.9 5.0 4.6
Quarterly / Interim Income Statement (Bt m)
Revenue Breakdown (Btm)
FY Dec 3Q2008 4Q2008 1Q2009 2Q2009 FY Dec 2008A 2009F 2010F 2011F
Turnover 16,725 16,391 16,501 16,029 -Post-paid Service 9,511 9,611 9,510 9,422
EBITDA 5,130 4,465 4,792 4,761 -Prepaid Service 29,455 29,303 30,115 30,450
Depr/Amort (2,377) (2,523) (2,447) (2,616) -VAS 7,464 8,210 8,867 9,399
Opg Profit 2,752 1,942 2,345 2,144 -IR 2,334 2,217 2,395 2,538
Asso & Other Inc 11 16 18 25 -IC 14,878 13,560 13,832 14,315
Interest (Exp)/Inc (305) (272) (361) (335) -Others 2,958 2,781 2,892 3,007
Pre-Tax Profit 2,458 1,685 2,002 1,835 -Sales & Others 1,095 989 1,005 1,022
Tax (620) (464) (521) (474) Total Revenues 67,695 66,672 68,616 70,154
Minority Interest (2) 5 10 5
Extra & Forex (3) 18 (12) 4 -Access Charge - - - -
Net Profit 1,834 1,244 1,480 1,369 -Concession Fee (13,933) (13,840) (14,095) (15,051)
Sales Growth (%) 2.3 (2.7) (6.8) (5.0) -Deprec. & Amor. (7,963) (8,260) (8,606) (8,271)
Net Profit Gr (%) 34.6 (21.6) (36.9) (64.9) -IC (15,033) (14,294) (14,309) (14,561)
EBITDA Mgn (%) 30.7 27.2 29.0 29.7 -COS & Others (7,712) (8,165) (8,406) (8,574)
Tax Rate (%) 25.4 27.5 26.0 26.0 Total Cost of Good Sold (44,643) (44,559) (45,416) (46,459)
Source: Company, DBS Vickers
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