The Challenge of Non-Communicable Diseases and Road Traffic ...

12 The Challenge of Non-communicable Diseases and Road Traffic Injuries in Sub-Saharan Africa
some tropical diseases and infections of poverty
cause heart disease [23]; TB worsens outcomes for
diabetes [24]; stunting is associated with increased
risk of obesity in later life [22, 25]; and many infectious
agents such as hepatitis B (HBV), human papilloma
virus (HPV), and HIV are associated with
increased risk of cancer [26-27] – about one third
of cancers in Africa are infection-related, double
the world average [27].
By 2010, cerebrovascular disease, diabetes and
COPD already ranked as the 7 th , 8 th and 9 th highest
causes of DALYs in Southern SSA [16]. A further
shift in relative disease burden is expected: by 2030,
the disease burden (in DALYs) for HIV/AIDS, malaria,
and other infectious and parasitic conditions
is expected to be significantly lower, with the four
main NCDs becoming pre-eminent (Figure 2) [28].
FIGURE 2: Projected Burden of Disease (percentage of Total DALYs) by Groups of Disorders and
Conditions, SSA, 2008 and 2030
NCDs Injuries
Communicable, maternal,
perinatal, nutritional
Intentional injuries
Other unintentional injuries
RTIs
Other NCDs
Neuropsychiatric disorders
4 NCDs (CVD, cancer, respiratory diseases, diabetes)
Nutritional deficiencies
Perinatal conditions
Maternal conditions
Respiratory infections
Other infectious and parasitic diseases
Malaria
HIV/AIDS
Tuberculosis
2030 2008
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%
Source: Authors from [28] 4
Projected DALYs by cause for 2008, 2030 - standard DALYs (3 percent discounting, age weights) – Baseline scenario.
4 At the time of preparation of this report, projections of mortality and burden of disease were not available through the Global Burden of Disease
study 2010 [17] so an earlier version [28] was used for Figures 2 and 9.