Elektronika 2009-11.pdf - Instytut Systemów Elektronicznych

nerations has almost always been reached, and occasionally
improvements have been registered until the last generation,
suggesting that the final solution is sub-optimal. However,
adding more generations did not improve the final solution
considerably and the solution found originally was always
close enough to be accepted.
Summary and conclusions
The method, described here, is a generalization of evolutionary
trajectory determining. A set of trajectories of all ships, instead
of just the own trajectory, is determined. The method
avoids violating ship domains and stationary constraints, while
minimizing way loss and obeying COLREGS. Because of its
low computational time, it can be applied to ARPA (Automatic
Radar Plotting Aids) systems as well as VTS (Vessel Traffic
Service) systems. In case of simple scenarios (where ship
priorities are clearly described by COLREGS), the method is
able to predict the probable manoeuvres of targets and plan
own ship manoeuvre in advance. In the most complex cases,
with a high density of ships and obstacles, it can be impossible
to predict behaviour of all targets correctly and thus - to fully
take advantage of the method. However, the method could
still be used in ARPA systems to predict at least the tendencies
of the targets manoeuvres (manoeuvres to starboard, to
port board or lack of manoeuvres). And - it could be fully utilized
by VTS systems to plan sets of cooperating ship trajectories
in harbour areas. In the latter case it could successfully
solve any given scenario involving multiple ships and stationary
constraints.
References
[1] Szłapczyński R.: Evolutionary Approach to solving multi-ship encounter
situations. Polish Journal of Environmental Studies,
2008, vol. 4C.
[2] Lisowski J.: Dynamic games methods in navigator decision support
system for safety navigation. Proceedings of the European
Safety and Reliability Conference vol. 2, pp. 1285-1292, 2005.
[3] Śmierzchalski R.: Synteza metod i algorytmów wspomagania decyzji
nawigatora w sytuacji kolizyjnej na morzu. Prace Naukowe
Wyższej Szkoły Morskiej w Gdyni, 1998.
[4] Davis P. V., Dove M. J., Stockel C. T. (1982). A Computer Simulation
of multi-Ship Encounters. The Journal of Navigation, 35,
347-352.
[5] Coldwell T. G.: Marine Traffic Behaviour in restricted Waters.
Journal of Navigation, issue 36, pp. 431-444, 1982.
[6] Cockroft A. N., Lameijer J. N. F.: A Guide to Collision Avoidance
Rules. Butterworth-Heinemann Ltd., 1993.
[7] Szłapczyński R.: A unified measure of collision risk derived from
the concept of a ship domain. Journal of Navigation, 59, issue 3,
2006.
[8] Szłapczyński R.: A new method of ship routing on raster grids,
with turn penalties and collision avoidance. Journal of Navigation,
59, issue 1, 2006.
[9] Szłapczyński R.: A new method of planning collision avoidance
manoeuvres for multi target encounter situations. Journal of Navigation,
61, issue 2, 2008.
The role of fuzzy modeling in creation of knowledge
base’s for intelligent decision’s support systems
in the conditions of the dangerous
hydrometeorological phenomenon threat
(Rola modelowania rozmytego w kształtowaniu baz wiedzy dla
inteligentnych systemów wspomagania decyzji w warunkach zagrożenia
niebezpiecznym zjawiskiem natury)
dr inż. TATIANA TRETYAKOVA
West Pomeranien University of Technology, Szczecin
The hydrometeorological information is one of many types of
information used in the decision of a different sort of problems
issues. It is well known, that this type of information should be
used to avoid or reduction of the negative consequences connected
to influence of hydrometeorological factors on functioning
of economic objects (industrial, service, social and
cultural). The probable variant of a chain of the consequences
connected to influence of hydrometeorological factors on economic
object, could be presented as follows: influence of the
dangerous hydrometeorological phenomenon → damage of
subsystems of the economic object → abnormality of functioning
of the object → negative influence on the ecological
environment and people’s health → the damage connected
to loss of productive capacity → an expense, connected to repair
of object, and also with victims treatment or with loss of
life → partners loss →..., etc.
It shall be noticed, that this chain could be changed depending
on force of the natural phenomenon and types of economic
objects. In any case taking into account the hydrometeorological
information it should be considered decreasing of possible loss.
The decision making having this information is carrying out more
often in situations when consequences of the accepted decisions
are not known to the end. Frequently, the hydrometeorological information
appears incomplete and imprecise. By virtue of uniqueness
of the natural phenomena it is not always possible to
foresee a degree of influence of hydrometeorological factors on
economic objects in conditions of particular region.
For this reason the clear algorithm of a reaction to the
choice strategy with this type of information does not exist up
to the end of the process. In such cases the use of the intelligent
computer systems, which take into account the hydrometeorological
information in acceptance of decisions, is rather
18 ELEKTRONIKA 11/2009