The Malaria Vaccine Model (212 KB PDF) - Malaria Vaccine Initiative

The Malaria Vaccine Model
Overview
The Malaria Vaccine Model (MVM) is a tool to inform decision-making that connects the
mathematical models of malaria epidemiology and demand forecasting to provide a
comprehensive picture of a new vaccine’s potential in terms of supply, demand, health benefits,
and cost. Developed by the PATH Malaria Vaccine Initiative (MVI), in collaboration with the
Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH) and Applied Strategies, the MVM includes
demand, public health, and financial modules:
• Demand module: Based on United Nations population data, vaccine coverage rates from the
UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) and the World Health Organization (WHO), and vaccine uptake
as entered by the user, this module estimates the number of doses of vaccine that would be
needed over a given period to satisfy demand.
• Public health module: This module is based on disease burden data from WHO and the
Malaria Atlas Project (MAP) and uses epidemiological simulations from the Swiss TPH to
predict the impact of a vaccine in terms of the cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years
(DALYs) that would be averted with a given uptake scenario.
• Financial module: The financial module calculates the investment needed to achieve the
public health impact described above, based on information entered by the user on vaccine
price and implementation costs. This module also provides a simple calculation of costeffectiveness,
represented by the cost of each case, death, or DALY averted.
Model inputs
and outputs
The MVM allows flexibility with regard to the scenarios that can be modeled. User inputs may
include the following:
• Vaccine characteristics (e.g., type, efficacy, dosage schedule, price).
• Implementation plans (e.g., target population, mode of delivery, implementation cost).
• Year of anticipated vaccine adoption by countries.
Based on the above inputs, as well as on reference data for the disease burden and malaria
transmission in specific countries, the model generates outputs that include, but are not limited
to, the following:

• The number of doses of vaccine needed to meet the demand.
• The number of uncomplicated cases, deaths, severe cases, and DALYs averted by use of
the vaccine.
• The investment needed (by countries and donors) to achieve these potential public
health gains.
Future plans
Future model iterations are planned that will refine the estimates of the impact of malaria
vaccines on transmission, and thus vaccines’ overall public health impact. A wider range of
vaccine types, target populations, and vaccine characteristics will also be included in the next
version.
Model use
The current version of the MVM produces outputs that can be of great use to the international
community, countries, and donors as preparations begin for the possible implementation of a
malaria vaccine. The MVM can provide countries with predictions of the potential impact of a
malaria vaccine when used in local contexts, promoting evidence-based decision-making on
adoption. At the global level, outputs could be used to develop guidelines for vaccine use, to
anticipate demand, and to secure appropriate financing.
THE PATH MALARIA VACCINE INITIATIVE (MVI) is a global program established at PATH through an initial
grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. MVI’s mission is to accelerate the development of malaria
vaccines and ensure their availability and accessibility in the developing world. MVI’s vision is a world free
from malaria. For more information, visit www.malariavaccine.org.
PATH is an international nonprofit organization that creates sustainable, culturally relevant solutions,
enabling communities worldwide to break longstanding cycles of poor health. By collaborating with diverse
public- and private-sector partners, PATH helps provide appropriate health technologies and vital strategies
that change the way people think and act. PATH’s work improves global health and well-being. For more
information, visit www.path.org.
February 2012