Forecasting Model for Active Leakage Control ... - Iwa-waterloss.org
Forecasting Model for Active Leakage Control ... - Iwa-waterloss.org
Forecasting Model for Active Leakage Control ... - Iwa-waterloss.org
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<strong>Forecasting</strong> <strong>Model</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Active</strong><br />
<strong>Leakage</strong> <strong>Control</strong> Management<br />
David Pearson<br />
Crowder Consulting<br />
Crowder Consulting -<br />
Netbase
<strong>Forecasting</strong> <strong>Model</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Leakage</strong><br />
• Why?<br />
• Principle and methodology<br />
• Example<br />
Crowder Consulting -<br />
Netbase
<strong>Forecasting</strong> <strong>Leakage</strong> – Why?<br />
• Predict end of year position<br />
• Establish resources necessary to deliver annual<br />
regulatory target with required risk and<br />
confidence<br />
• Provide estimate of number of repairs to year<br />
end <strong>for</strong> budget purposes<br />
• Provide leakage and resource profile to year end<br />
<strong>for</strong> tracking and monitoring<br />
Crowder Consulting -<br />
Netbase
Principle of Monte Carlo Simulation<br />
• Sample from distribution of inputs to estimate<br />
distribution of outcome<br />
a b c<br />
a + b + c<br />
Crowder Consulting -<br />
Netbase
<strong>Model</strong><br />
Crowder Consulting -<br />
Netbase
Example Outputs – DMA Level<br />
Crowder Consulting -<br />
Netbase
Example Outputs – Zone Level<br />
• “Mean” leakage profile<br />
• “Mean” detection resource profile<br />
Crowder Consulting -<br />
Netbase
Example Outputs – Zone Level<br />
• Estimated year end leakage and uncertainty<br />
• Estimated annual average leakage and<br />
uncertainty<br />
Crowder Consulting -<br />
Netbase
Thank You<br />
Crowder Consulting -<br />
Netbase
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