Poverty Reduction at Risk in Ethiopia - NCAP

COLOFON 

Text: 

Bill Dougherty, Stockholm Environment Institute - US (billd@sei-us.org) 

Florence Crick, Oxford University Centre for the Environment (florence.crick@ouce.ox.ac.uk) 

Editing: 

Giles Stacey, ENGLISHWORKS (stacey@dds.nl) 

Layout: 

Desiree, Dirkzwager, ETC 

Cover Design: 

Marijke Kreikamp, ETC 

March 2007 

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 

This paper was commissioned by the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ Directorate General for 

International Cooperation (DGIS) under the Netherlands Climate Assistance Programme (NCAP) and 

was prepared by Bill Dougherty and Florence Crick. The report is part of a series of country studies in 

Bangladesh, Bolivia and Ethiopia – and a synthesis report – which are available from www.nlcap.net. 

The studies were directed by Maarten van Aalst, Danielle Hirsch and Ian Tellam. Christine Pirenne 

provided overall guidance and inputs from DGIS. We also gratefully acknowledge the support and 

substantive inputs from various people at the Royal Netherlands Embassies in all three case study 

countries, in particular Jan Willem le Grand, Michel van Winden and Jannie Poley. Other people at 

DGIS who provided inputs include Peter de Vries and Fred Smiet. Valuable suggestions were also 

provided by Phil O’Keefe from ETC. 

i

Table of Contents 

page 

LIST OF TABLES................................................................................................................ VI 

LIST OF FIGURES.............................................................................................................. VI 

LIST OF BOXES .................................................................................................................VII 

LIST OF ACRONYMS ..................................................................................................... VIII 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................. XI 

1. INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................1 

2. CONTEXT FOR CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT IN ETHIOPIA......................3 

2.1. GEOGRAPHIC CONTEXT ..............................................................................................3 

2.2. DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT ...........................................................................................4 

2.3. CLIMATE CONTEXT.....................................................................................................5 

2.4. DGIS DONOR ASSISTANCE CONTEXT.........................................................................7 

2.5. NATIONAL POLICY CONTEXT....................................................................................10 

3. KEY PREMISES FOR CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT IN ETHIOPIA .........15 

3.1. ETHIOPIA IS CURRENTLY MALADAPTED TO CURRENT &FUTURE CLIMATE RISKS...15 

3.2. SERIOUS PHYSICAL IMPACTS ACCOMPANY EXTREME CLIMATIC EVENTS ................15 

3.3. CLIMATIC SHOCKS POSE THE GREATEST RISK TO POOR POPULATIONS ....................16 

3.4. CLIMATIC HAZARDS WILL BE SIMILAR UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE CONDITIONS .......17 

3.5. ANTICIPATORY,PLANNED ACTION NEEDS TO BE PART OF A RISK MANAGEMENT ...17 

3.6. BETTER MANAGEMENT OF CLIMATE RISKS IS “NEW” AND URGENTLY NEEDED ......18 

4. APPROACH TO INTEGRATING CLIMATE RISKS IN PROJECT DESIGN....21 

4.1. OVERVIEW OF POSSIBLE APPROACHES .....................................................................21 

4.2. CHOICE OF APPROACH ..............................................................................................22 

4.3. STREAMLINED APPROACH TO USING CRISTAL .......................................................23 

Understand the Current and Future Climate Context ............................................23 

Understand the Livelihood Context ........................................................................24 

Screen Project Activities.........................................................................................25 

Redesign Project Activities to Account for Climatic Risks .....................................27 

4.4. RATIONALE FOR PROJECT SELECTION.......................................................................27 

5. KAFA DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME .................................................................29 

5.1. AIMS AND OBJECTIVES OF PROJECT...........................................................................29 

5.2. EXTENT TO WHICH CLIMATE IS REFERENCED IN PLANNING DOCUMENTS...................30 

5.3. POTENTIAL VULNERABILITIES AND BENEFITS OF PROJECT IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE 

CHANGE ....................................................................................................................31 

5.4. SCREENING FOR CLIMATE RISKS...............................................................................31 

Climate Context ......................................................................................................32 

Livelihood Context..................................................................................................32 

Project Activity Profile ...........................................................................................33 

Managing climate risks...........................................................................................34 

iii

6. CENTRAL RIFT VALLEY..........................................................................................35 




CHANGE ....................................................................................................................38 


Climate Context ......................................................................................................39 

Livelihood Context..................................................................................................40 

Activity Profile ........................................................................................................40 

Managing Climate Risks.........................................................................................40 

7. NILE BASIN INITIATIVE (NBI)................................................................................43 




CHANGE ....................................................................................................................44 



8. BALE INTEGRATED FOREST MANAGEMENT/BALE ECOREGION 

SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT PROGRAMME .................................................51 

8.1. AIMS/OBJECTIVES OF THE PROJECT ...........................................................................51 



CHANGE ....................................................................................................................52 


9. HORN OF AFRICA REGIONAL ENVIRONMENT NETWORK (HOA-REN) 

AND REGIONAL ENVIRONMENT CENTRE (HOA-REC)..................................53 

9.1. AIMS AND OBJECTIVES OF THE PROJECT....................................................................53 



CHANGE ....................................................................................................................54 


10. KOKA DAM...................................................................................................................57 




CHANGE 58 



11. GREATER BOMA PARK INITIATIVE....................................................................61 




CHANGE 62 


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12. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT FACILITY SMALL GRANTS PROGRAMME ......65 




CHANGE 66 


13. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS.......................................................69 

14. LIST OF REFERENCES..............................................................................................71 

ANNEX A: DGIS CLIMATE RISK PROJECT TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR 

CONSULTANTS ...........................................................................................................75 

ANNEX B: ADDITIONAL DETAILS REGARDING CLIMATE CONTEXT IN 

ETHIOPIA .....................................................................................................................79 

ANNEX C: GLOSSARY OF TERMS .................................................................................85 

v

List of Tables 

Page 

Table 3-1: Examples of projected changes in extreme climate phenomena, with examples of 

projected impacts (source van Aalst, 2006).....................................................................16 

Table 4-1: System used for assessing impact of project activities on adaptation....................26 

Table 4-2: List of projects screened for climate risks..............................................................28 

Table 5-1: Impact of KDP activities (positive, negative, neutral) and floods (Scale 1 to 5, with 

5 being maximum impact) on livelihood resources in Kafa zone. ..................................33 

Table 6-1: Impact of CRV Working Group activities (positive, negative, neutral) and 

droughts (Scale 1 to 5, with 5 being maximum impact) on livelihood resources in the 

CRV. ................................................................................................................................41 

Table 7-1: Brief Review of the NBI-ENTRO sub-projects (NBI website). ............................46 

Table 13-1: Risk Category of the DGIS Projects reviewed.....................................................70 

List of Figures 

Figure 1-1: Patterns in rainfall and GDP in Ethiopia (IRI, 2006)..............................................1 

Figure 2-1: Map of Ethiopia showing elevation characteristics ................................................3 

Page 

Figure 2-2: Average variability of annual rainfall over northern and south-western Ethiopia 

(Source: FDRE, 2001). ......................................................................................................6 

Figure 2-3: Average variability of annual rainfall over central Ethiopia and averaged over the 

whole country (Source: FDRE, 2001). ..............................................................................6 

Figure 2-4: Changes in wet extremes using three different GCMs in the Nile region (source: 

Shongwe, et al, 2005).........................................................................................................8 

Figure 3-1: Matrix showing the five prevalent types of adaptation to climate change, 

including examples of possible adaptations (source: Klein et al, 2005)..........................18 

Figure 4-1: Climate risk screening process used .....................................................................23 

Figure 4-2: Steps involved in setting the climate context........................................................24 

Figure 4-3: Steps involved in setting the livelihood context ...................................................25 



Figure 6-1: Map of the Central Ethiopian Rift Valley and its four lakes (Legesse et al, 2004). 

..........................................................................................................................................35 

Figure 10-1: Location of the Koka dam...................................................................................57 

vi

List of Boxes 

Page 

Box 2-1: Climate extremes in Ethiopia – Severe Flooding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 

Box 2-2: Vulnerable populations in Ethiopia from the 2006 Floods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 

Box 2-3: Netherlands Embassy assistance priorities (2006-08) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 

Box 10-1: Extensive damage to downstream irrigated areas due to Koka dam overflow. . 58 

Box 10-2: Koka dam overflows and precautionary measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 

vii

List of Acronyms 

AAU 

ADLI 

ACC 

CRISTAL 

CBO 

CRV 

CSE 

DGIS-DMW 

DAG 

ENSAP 

EPA 

EWCO 

FAO 

FDRE 

FNC 

GCM 

GDP 

GEF 

GTZ 

HoA-REC 

HoA-REN 

HoA-REP 

IDP 

IPCC 

IRI 

KDP 

LDC 

MDG 

MEA 

NAPA 

NBI 

NBI-ENSAP 

NBI-ENTRO 

NBSAP 

NGO 

NMSA 

Addis Ababa University 

Agricultural Development Led Industrialization 

African Conservation Centre 

Community-based RIsk Screening Tool - Adaptation & Livelihoods 

Community Based Organization 

Central Rift Valley 

Conservation Strategy of Ethiopia 

Environment and Water Department at the Netherlands Ministry of 

Foreign Affairs 

Donor Assistance Group 

Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Programme 

Environmental Protection Authority 

Ethiopian Wildlife Conservation Organization 

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations 

Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia 

First National Communications under the Framework Convention on 

Climate Change 

General Circulation Model 

Gross domestic product 

Global Environment Facility 

Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Technische Zusammenarbeit (German 

Development Agency) 

Horn of Africa Regional Environment Centre 

Horn of Africa Regional Environment Network 

Horn of Africa Regional Environment Programme (DGIS-RNE-AA) 

Internally Displaced People 

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 

International Research Institute for Climate and Society 

Kafa Development Programme 

Least Developed Country 

Millennium Development Goals 

Multilateral Environmental Agreement 

National Adaptation Programme of Action 

Nile Basin Initiative 

NBI Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Programme 

NBI Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office 

National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan 

Non-governmental organization 

National Meteorological Services Agency 

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PASDEP 

PRSP 

RNE 

RNE-AA 

SGP 

SNNPR 

UN 

UNCCD 

UNDP 

UNEP 

UNFCCC 

V&A 

WASH 

WHO 

WSSD 

Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty 

Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper 

Royal Netherlands Embassy 

Royal Netherlands Embassy – Addis Ababa 

Small Grants Programme (GEF) 

Southern Nations Nationalities and Peoples Region 

United Nations 

United Nations Framework Convention to Combat Drought and 

Desertification 

United Nations Development Programme 

United Nations Environment Programme 

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 

Vulnerability and Adaptation 

Water supply, Sanitation and Hygiene 

World Health Organization 

World Summit on Sustainable Development 

ix

Executive Summary 

Around the world, extreme climatic events are exacting increasingly visible and heavy tolls, 

with its greatest impact exerted in poorer countries. Ethiopia, more so than many countries 

of the world, is particularly sensitive to perturbations in climatic conditions due to its high 

dependence on rainfed agricultural activities as the engine of its economy. Rainfed 

agriculture remains the backbone of the Ethiopian economy, accounting for half of its gross 

domestic product (GDP), 60% of its exports, and 80% of total employment (FAO, 2005). 

Already, Ethiopia and the other countries of the Horn of Africa region are being forced to 

cope with and adapt to changes in climate, as evidenced by discernable increases in drought 

frequency and the intense flooding that disrupted the lives of hundreds of thousands of people 

in 2006. The spectre of an acceleration of these patterns due to climate change presents a 

serious threat to the people of this region and to the effectiveness of development projects. 

In view of this growing concern, the Environment and Water Department at the Netherlands 

Ministry of Foreign Affairs has decided to increase attention to this problem, launching an 

initiative to examine how climate risks can be better managed in their development assistance 

portfolio in Ethiopia. The primary aim of this initiative is to identify areas where the 

Netherlands can better align its development assistance with the reality of new and emerging 

climatic threats to these investments. 

To this end, this report offers three key inputs to the process of better accounting for climate 

risks in future DGIS investments in Ethiopia. First, we provide a conceptual framework for 

integrating climate risks into project design. This framework consists of a decision support 

tool that can be used to both screen the effectiveness by which climate concerns have been 

addressed in project design, and identify potential remedial measures that could be 

introduced. 

Second, we applied this conceptual framework in the evaluation of 8 DGIS-relevant projects. 

Each project was selected relative to the embassy’s poverty reduction and regional stability 

priorities, as we believed such projects could be severely impacted by not duly accounting for 

climatic risks. Each project was first screened to assess the degree to which climate risks have 

been incorporated in project design, enabling a broad classification into high (RED), medium 

(ORANGE) and low (GREEN) risk projects. For the projects identified as high and medium 

risks, a second and more detailed screening process was undertaken by using a climate risk 

management tool (i.e., CRISTAL) developed by a member of the project team. 

Third, we synthesized the results of the assessment into a set of conclusions and 

recommendations for DGIS to consider in future development planning, both for Ethiopia 

and, as appropriate, for other countries. We identified specific areas of action that we believe 

could contribute directly to the development of a broad framework for climate risk 

management that could be linked to the structure and work plans on new and ongoing DGIS 

projects in Ethiopia. 

Of the eight projects evaluated, we found some to be green projects meaning activities at little 

risk from climate variability and climate change. Others we found to be at red projects 

meaning that they are at high risk and have recommended specific measures to be introduced 

as soon as possible to reduce the risks for climate-induced impacts. The remaining project we 

found to be orange projects meaning they are at medium risk, and have proposed a number of 

measures that could be implemented in the near- to mid-term to reduce climatic risks. A 

summary of our conclusions and recommendations for each of the projects are we reviewed 

are summarized in the bullets below. 

xi

Kafa Development Programme: There do not appear to be any direct climate risks to 

the project as a whole, but certain components of the project are likely to be negatively 

affected by climate change and could result in the under-performance of the project. 

Better management of climate risks would include the development of early warning 

systems, increasing awareness of climate change amongst local government staff, 

overlaying maps and databases of remaining forest and other resources with climatic hot 

spot information. 

Central Rift Valley: There are no direct risks to the evolving programme of the project 

as a whole but some components and objectives of this programme are likely to be 

affected by climate change and could result in under-performance if climate risks are not 

properly incorporated into the design of the ecosystem rehabilitation component. Better 

management of climate risks would include the development of a sustainable water vision 

in the area. 

Nile Basin initiative: Climate promises to be a persistent environmental risk confronting 

the future development of the Basin. Indeed, complex and adverse climate-related 

impacts affecting every sector of the Nile Basin States – including, in particular, the 

region’s water resources – now seem unavoidable. Better management of climate risks 

would involve more informed decision-making that would explicitly involve the 

integration of a 4-part climate risk assessment framework into the NBI programme. 

Bale integrated forest management. There are no direct risks to the project as a whole, 

and only minor risks exist for some of the project components, such as the one related to 

the diversification and improvement of livelihoods. 

Horn of Africa Regional Environment Network: There are no direct risks to the project 

as a whole, or to project components and the project can potentially contribute to better 

climate change adaptation and risk management. 

Koka dam: There are direct risks to downstream areas of the Koka dam due to the future 

need to release flows when the inflow rate to the reservoir is too high. Given the 

excessive sedimentation of the dam and the prospects for a worsening situation, this risk 

will increase over time in the absence of significant remedial action. Better management 

of climate risks involve the immediate commissioning of a study of the costs/benefits of 

remedial options for the dam, coupled with the development of near-, mid-, and long-term 

strategies to protect resources downstream of dams in Ethiopia. 

Greater Boma Park initiative: There are no direct risks to the programme as a whole 

but the livelihood component of this project is likely to be at risk of climate change, as 

droughts will reduce the food security of the communities, droughts would result in 

reduced crop productions, income loss and food insecurity; and water resources could be 

adversely affected and may lead to communities facing water shortages and hence 

increasing the risk of illness and child mortality. 

GEF Small Grants Programme: There are no direct risks to the programme as a whole, 

but some of its components may be affected by climate change and these could require a 

climate risk assessment. The components concerning livelihood diversification, land and 

water use and management, conservation, land quality and soil erosion reduction could all 

benefit from an explicit consideration and integration of climate risks into the 

programme. There is a potential risk of under-performance of the programme but the risk 

will depend on the exact projects implemented under the GEF SGP. 

xii

At the programmatic level, we have several cross-project and cross-region recommendations 

as briefly summarized in the bullets below. 

Develop a Horn of Africa climate risk knowledge network. This activity would focus on 

implementing arrangements to facilitate networking, communication and early warning 

among this group, and assembling a set of expert task forces for key activities. 

Promote a capacity-strengthening strategy on climate risk management. By developing 

human and institutional capacity at a range of scales (community-based organization, 

national NGO, university department, government agency, etc.) to respond to climate risk 

issues at various levels of operation (administrative levels, sectors, disciplines, etc.) the 

program could help to enable climate risk integration 

Synthesize climate risk vulnerability knowledge. This activity should undertake both a 

technical assessment and a consultative process to extract themes and lessons that are 

relevant to climate risk management, and are common to Ethiopia and the other Horn of 

Africa countries; 

Develop a decision support tool for future investments. This activity could be at the centre 

of a climate risk management program in Ethiopia and should focus on the codification of 

the 2-stage risk assessment process applied in this study into a user-friendly and menudriven 

software package. 

xiii

xiv

1. Introduction 

Around the world, climate change is exacting increasingly visible and heavy tolls, with its 

greatest impact exerted in poorer countries. Today, people in Ethiopia - as well as the Horn 

of Africa region in which it is located – face increasing threats from ongoing changes in 

temperature and rainfall regimes associated with a changing climate. Having a diverse 

climate ranging from semi-arid zones to temperate zones at higher altitudes, Ethiopia is 

characterized by a fragile resource base, steep population growth, and increasing stress from 

local/national development activities, factors which combine to render the region highly 

vulnerable to climate-related impacts. 

Ethiopia, more so than many countries of the world, is particularly sensitive to perturbations 

in climatic conditions due to its high dependence on rainfed agricultural activities as the 

engine of its economy. Agriculture is the backbone of the Ethiopian economy, accounting for 

half of its gross domestic product (GDP), 60% of its exports, and 80% of total employment 

(FAO, 2005). An indication of the impact that climate variability and climate change has on 

its economy is illustrated in Figure 1-1, which shows that economic growth as measured by 

GDP is strongly correlated with rainfall patterns. 

Figure 1-1: Patterns in rainfall and GDP in Ethiopia (IRI, 2006) 

Already, Ethiopia and the other countries of the Horn of Africa region are being forced to 

cope with and adapt to changes in climate, as evidenced by autonomous responses to the 

significant warming trends of the last 40 years and the discernable increases in drought and 

flood frequency and intensity. The spectre of an acceleration of these patterns due to climate 

change presents a serious threat to the people of this region. 

In view of this growing concern, the Environment and Water Department at the Netherlands 

Ministry of Foreign Affairs (DGIS-DMW) has decided to increase attention to this problem, 

launching an initiative to examine how climate risks can be better managed in their 

development assistance portfolio. The primary aim of this initiative is to identify areas where 

the Netherlands can better align its development assistance with the reality of new and 

emerging climatic threats to these investments. Ethiopia is one of three case studies, the 

others being Bolivia and Bangladesh. 

The initiative has the potential to assist in guiding the region toward reduced impacts and 

greater adaptive capacity. In essence, this initiative involves starting the process of adaptation 

today, developing a strong adaptation project portfolio, consisting of new, pro-active 

1

measures and existing, ‘win-win’ options, and integrating adaptation at all possible points 

with ongoing development policy, planning and activity in Ethiopia. 

To this end, this report contains both a conceptual framework for integrating climate risks 

into project design, as well as an application of this framework to several ongoing Dutchsupported 

projects in Ethiopia. This assessment is based on a 4-day mission to Addis Ababa 

during the period 25-28 September 2006 during which project documents were reviewed and 

key individuals were interviewed. It is also based on desk-based research and relevant 

experience the authors of this report have had in the region. The results of this assessment 

should be useful as input to the development of an overarching approach to integrating 

climate risks in the broader Netherlands development portfolio. 

This report is divided into thirteen major sections. The next section provides an overview of 

the Ethiopian context in which climate risks are considered. This includes a review of 

information relative to the geographic, development, climate and DGIS assistance contexts. 

Section 3 outlines the underlying premises for the approach used in this report to screen a set 

of projects in Ethiopia for climate risks. It includes a brief literature review and identifies 

some of the key issues associated with efforts to integrate climate risk management in project 

design and planning. 

Section 4 lays out the basic approach we have used to screen projects for climate risks. The 

section describes a four-step process that aims to provide a basis for improving communityand 

project-based decision-making so that adaptation opportunities can be maximized, and 

vulnerability to climatic shocks can be reduced. It is based on a planning tool called CRISTAL 

that SEI-US, in collaboration with its partners, has been developing to offer project planners 

and managers a way of doing interactive climate risk management for planned or ongoing 

projects. 

In Sections 5 through 12, we review a number of projects that are either ongoing or in the 

process of implementation in Ethiopia, supported either entirely by the embassy or in 

collaboration with other donors. After a review of the aims and objectives of each project, the 

section identifies the ways, if any, that climate risks are addressed and then uses the approach 

described in the previous section to identify specific options for integrating climate risks into 

these projects. Finally, in Section 13 we provide a set of conclusions and recommendations 

for the consideration of DGIS. 

2

2. Context for Climate Risk Management in Ethiopia 

The people of Ethiopia are faced with an already fragile natural resource base, steep 

population growth, high levels of poverty, and increasing ecological stress from 

national/local development activities, factors which combine to render them highly 

vulnerable to current and future climatic shocks. According to the Intergovernmental Panel 

on Climate Change (IPCC), sub-Saharan countries are highly vulnerable to the effects of 

climate change and are projected to be among the first on the planet to experience the adverse 

impacts of climate change. In order to better understand the context in which climate risks are 

considered, geographic, development, climatic, and DGIS assistance background is briefly 

reviewed below. 

2.1. Geographic Context 

Ethiopia, a landlocked country bordered by Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, Kenya, and Sudan, is 

located in northeast Africa, occupying a total area of 1.13 million square kilometres. Almost 

7,500 square kilometres are covered by water. High-altitude plateaus characterize much of its 

terrain, with its central mountain ranges divided by the Great Rift Valley, and its westernmost 

and easternmost regions comprised of altitudes less tan 750 meters (see Figure 2-1). 

Figure 2-1: Map of Ethiopia showing elevation characteristics 

Ethiopia is a country of great geographical diversity with high and rugged mountains, flat 

topped plateaus, deep gorges, river valleys and plains. This diversity in relief makes the 

country unique in Africa. Ethiopia is the most elevated part of Northeast Africa. The altitude 

ranges from the highest peak in Ras Dashen (4,620 meters above sea level), in Gondr, down 

to the Danakil depression (120 meters below sea level), one of the lowest dry land points on 

the earth, in the Northeast part of the country. 

All lands below 1,500 meters in altitude are commonly classified as lowlands, while lands 

above 1,500 meters are classified as highlands. The highlands of Ethiopia (>1,500 meters asl) 

constitute around 45% of the total area of the country. There is an essential difference 

between the highlands and the lowlands in terms of climate, population distribution, 

economic activities, lifestyle, etc. 

3

Three major physiographic regions exist in Ethiopia. These are the North, Central and Southwestern 

Highlands and the associated Lowlands, the South-eastern Highlands and the 

associated Lowlands, and the Ethiopian Rift Valley. The Ethiopian Rift Valley, which is an 

extension of the Great East African Rift Valley, divides the Ethiopian Highlands into two. 

There are a number of lakes along the Valley floor. 

Ethiopia’s ecological zones range from wet montane forests in the southwest, to dry 

grasslands, to tropical desert in the northeast. Ethiopia’s mountains capture rain, which runs 

off through the country’s twelve major river basins, including the Blue Nile, to supply 

neighbouring countries. Its riparian systems, combined with its eleven major lakes, make 

Ethiopia the “water tower” of Northeast Africa. 

This rich geographical diversity also means that certain of Ethiopia’s ecological zones are 

confined to small areas, with human communities, flora and fauna highly adapted to subsist 

within them. Other zones are vast, supporting large shares of the country’s agricultural 

production. In both cases, there are major climatic risks. Under climate extremes as well as 

changing climatic conditions, impacts will be imposed on the distribution and productivity of 

Ethiopia’s natural resources – its forests, soils, 

grasslands, surface waters – which in turn could 

have significant repercussions for millions of 

people. 

2.2. Development Context 

Already burdened with low human and economic 

development, climatic stresses contribute to 

environmental problems such as deforestation, 

overgrazing, soil erosion, and desertification. 

This year severe flooding has caused large-scale 

hardship and destruction in some highland regions 

(see Box 2-1). At the other extreme, there have 

been frequent and extensive droughts in the past 

that have created food shortages and even famine. 

Under these baseline conditions, Ethiopia is 

highly vulnerable to a changing climate. 

Indeed, poverty reduction is intimately linked to 

better management of climate risks. Vulnerability 

to shocks including climatic shocks is an 

Box 2-1: Climate extremes in Ethiopia 

– Severe Flooding (adapted from 

reports by the UN Office for the 

Coordination of Human Affairs) 

Ethiopia experienced the worst floods in 

its history in August of 2006, affecting all 

five regions of the country. In Dire Dawa 

city in the east, thousands were made 

homeless after the Dechatu River burst 

its banks on 6 August. Across the 

country, at least 357,000 people have 

been affected by the floods, which made 

136,528 homeless, according to the UN. 

In total more than 600 people died. 

Weeks after the peak of the flooding, 

thousands of people are still being 

affected by the risk of malaria outbreak 

and the devastation of livelihoods. In 

Gambella, 600 km southwest of Addis 

Ababa, up to 31,000 people were still 

seriously affected by the floods in eight 

districts two months after the floods 

receded. 

important determinant of poverty. Hence, successful efforts to reduce poverty will also 

reduce vulnerability to climate variability and climate change. Ethiopia’s Poverty Reduction 

Strategy Paper (PRSP), a comprehensive strategy for responding to the development needs of 

Ethiopia’s overwhelmingly poor population, essentially proceeds from this premise through 

its numerous components aimed at increasing the resilience of vulnerable people to cope with 

shocks of various kinds. 

As of 2006, Ethiopia’s population was almost 77 million, and is growing at a rapid pace 

adding about 2 million people per year, one of the highest growth rates in the world. Factors 

such as life expectancy (at 43.9 years), adult literacy (at 39 percent), school enrolment (at 

27%), and GDP per capita (at US$668/year) combine to place Ethiopia just sixth from the 

bottom of the list (at 170 th ) of the Human Development Index. According to the UNDP 

Human Development Report (2002), three quarters of the country do not have access to 

improved water sources – despite its abundant water resources, outlined above. And while 

4

66% of the country’s land area is considered potentially suitable for agricultural production, 

nearly half of all children under five years of age are underweight. 

Eradicating poverty through Agricultural Development Led Industrialization (ADLI) 

continues to be among Ethiopia’s primary development objectives (Dougherty, 2002). Its 

diverse agro-ecological zones enable Ethiopia to produce a range of crops, as well as 

livestock. At present, agriculture dominates the Ethiopian economy, accounting for nearly 

half of GDP and for the vast majority of employment. While the country is highly dependent 

on the agricultural sector for income, foreign currency, and food security, the sector is 

dominated by small-scale farmers who employ largely rain-fed and traditional practices – a 

state which renders Ethiopia highly vulnerable to climate variability (as seen during past 

persistent drought), and thus to climate change. 

Layered on top of these prevailing conditions of poverty, environmental and climatic factors 

create a number of pressing challenges for Ethiopia. The depletion of forests – primarily for 

household fuel use – threatens species and communities, diminishes tourism potential and 

reduces other valuable services forests provide. This example represents the type of current 

environmental concerns that could be exacerbated under climate change conditions. 

2.3. Climate Context 

In Ethiopia, climatic hazards such as droughts, flash flooding, and prolonged periods of 

reduced rainfall are expected to increase in frequency because of climate change. This section 

summarizes basic features of Ethiopia’s current and projected climate. Additional details are 

available in Annex B. 

Currently, mean annual temperatures in Ethiopia vary from about 10°C over the highlands in 

the north-west, central and south-east parts of the country to about 35°C in a small zone in the 

north-east of the country (see Figure 2-2). In general, the hottest period in the year is from 

March to May, while the lowest annual minimum temperatures occur over the highlands 

between the months of November and January (Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 

2001). Mean annual rainfall varies from about 2,000 mm over some areas in the southwest to 

less than 250 mm over the Afar lowlands in the northeast and Ogaden lowlands in the 

southeast. 

Ethiopia experiences three distinct seasons (FDRE, 2001). The dry season (or bega) extends 

from October through January. The belg season extends from February to May and provides 

a short rainy season for some crop growing regions of Ethiopia and represents the main rainy 

season for pastoral areas in the eastern and southern areas. The kremt season is the main wet 

season for most parts of the country and extends from June to September. While the kremt 

rains have been fairly consistent since the 1960s, the belg rains have been decreasing 

consistently since 1996. Verdin et al (2005) argue that the decrease in the belg rains may be 

part of a larger set of climatic changes in the Indian Ocean basin in which warm SST 

anomalies in the southern equatorial Indian Ocean lead to anomalous circulation, resulting in 

the reduction of rainfall over parts of the Greater Horn. 

Climatic patterns differ sharply across the country. In the Northern half and South-western 

parts of the country, rainfall levels have declined over the past 50 years and have been 

accompanied by sharp, inter-annual variability (see Figure 2-3). In contrast, rainfall levels in 

the central highland regions have increased over the past 50 years (see Figure 2-4). When 

averaged over the country as a whole, trend analysis of annual rainfall shows that average 

annual rainfall remained fairly constant in the second half of the 20 th century (see Figure 2-4). 

5

Figure 2-2: Daily mean annual temperature in °C (left) and Cumulative mean annual rainfall in 

mm (right) 

Figure 2-2: Average variability of annual rainfall over northern and south-western Ethiopia 

(Source: FDRE, 2001). 

Figure 2-3: Average variability of annual rainfall over central Ethiopia and averaged over the 

whole country (Source: FDRE, 2001). 

A high degree of rainfall variability and extremes is a distinct feature of the Ethiopian 

climate, with major droughts and floods having hit Ethiopia throughout its history. There 

were serious droughts in the years 1965, 1984 and 2002, which were extremely dry. In 

contrast, the years 1961, 1964, 1967, 1977 and 1996 were very wet years in which memories 

still linger of the destructive flooding that took place (Source: FDRE, 2001). The 2002 

drought was the worst in 40 years (Verdin et al, 2005). In contrast, the kremt season of 2006 

will be remembered as one of the wettest ever in Ethiopia, leading to unprecedented flooding 

of abnormal magnitude and damage (see Box 2-2). This flooding was mainly caused by 

6

torrential or heavy rains falling for several days on the upstream highlands. These rains 

caused most rivers to swell and overflow or breach their courses, inundating the surrounding 

floodplains. 

Box 2-2: Vulnerable populations in Ethiopia from the 2006 Floods 

Regarding future climate change, General Circulation Models (GCMs) indicate that 

temperatures will increase in the future, although the extent of the temperature increase varies 

significantly between models (FDRE, 2001). For the period 2040-2069 temperatures are 

projected to increase between 1°C and 3°C, while for the period 2070-2099 the scenarios and 

models suggest temperatures increases of 2°C to 4°C, with the possibility that the increase 

may be as high as 6°C. 

Average future rainfall levels could increase or decrease depending on the particular model 

used and emission scenario considered. Nevertheless, for the period between September and 

May the majority of models project more rainfall for Ethiopia, with potentially a 30% 

increase for the years 2070-2099 relative to the baseline of the last 50 years. The largest 

increases in rainfall are expected between the months of December to February, which is the 

dry season in Ethiopia. For the key rainy season months between June and August the 

direction of the changes in total precipitation are less clear. For the period 2070-2099 rainfall 

may increase or decrease by as much as 20% for the months of June, July and August. 

Recent studies undertaken at the Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute (KNMI) for Africa 

show that Ethiopia could likely experience a shift in both the rainfall onset and extreme wet 

events due to climate change. The Kremt wet season will likely extend to October instead of 

September as per the current climate. Even more striking is that intensity of 10-year wet 

events will likely increase over the Horn of Africa/Somalia and eastern Ethiopia. The 

implication of this is that extreme events such as floods – already a serious concern - will 

become worse in the future climate over Somalia and Eastern Ethiopia (see Figure 2-5). 

2.4. DGIS Donor Assistance Context 

Region Vulnerable Affected 

Afar 28,000 4,600 

SNNP 106,300 44,000 

Amhara 47,100 47,100 

Oromia 61,300 21,900 

Tigray 122,300 2,600 

Dire Dawa 10,400 10,400 

Somali 87,000 43,200 

Gambella 62,000 26,100 

Total 524,400 199,900 

The picture shows a boy looking out over flooded fields on the banks of Ethiopia's 

swollen Lake Tana near the remote village of Abiabo on September 6, 2006. Heavy rain 

over the past five days had flooded the banks of Lake Tana, forcing 2,000 of its 

inhabitants to move to a temporary shelter on higher ground. The table to the right of the 

picture shows the vulnerable regions and populations affected/under threat by the flood 

disaster of August 2006. The affected number of population includes 15% contingency. 

Picture Source: http://www.alertnet.org/db/crisisprofiles/ET_FLO.htm?v=at_a_glance 

The mission statement of the Dutch Ethiopian embassy for the years to come (2006-08) 

emphasizes contributions to promoting peace, stability and sustainable development in the 

Horn of Africa, and particularly in Ethiopia (RNE, 2005). The embassy’s integrated policies 

7

incorporate aspects of good governance and political dialogue, work on poverty reduction 

and the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) including work on sustainable 

development, economic development and consular affairs. Within these areas of intervention, 

the embassy seeks to harmonize its activities with other donors’ priorities and programmes. 

There are several cross-cutting issues such as gender, HIV/aids, water and environment that 

the embassy views as critical elements for determining the quality and effectiveness of the 

embassy’s programmes and interventions. 

Figure 2-4: Changes in wet extremes using three different GCMs in the Nile region (source: 

Shongwe, et al, 2005) 

DB 

R 

O 

LG 

LG 

DB 

Gr 

DG 

Gr 

LB 

O 

DG 

Note: blue areas indicate an increase in greater than 40%; green areas represent an increase between 10 and 40%; grey 

areas indicate change less than plus or minus 10%; yellow areas indicate a decrease between 10 and 30%; red areas 

indicate a decrease greater than 30%. DB = Dark Blue; LB = Light Blue; DG = Dark Green; LG = Light Green; O = 

Orange; R = Red; Gr = Grey. 

In its efforts to achieve the goals embedded in its mission statement, the Netherlands embassy 

in Addis has developed integrated policies that aim to link political, developmental, 

environmental, commercial and consular objectives. The key elements of these policies are an 

improvement of the governance situation, promotion of partnerships with civil society and 

the private sector, and continuation of pro-poor policies for sustainable development. The 

following criteria have been applied in the development of its assistance programme for the 

current three-year assistance period (2006-2008) and in developing the Regional 

Environment Programme for The Horn of Africa: 

Developing a stronger emphasis on governance issues (which includes environmental 

governance at the regional level); 

Continuing the general thrust of the embassy’s past programmes, which has been met 

with appreciation by a range of partners; 

Continuing an emphasis on policy dialogue at national level through the embassy’s sector 

specialists; 

Fostering a two-pronged approach linking micro experiences with macro policy 

development; 

Aligning the embassy’s programmes to the regional context and the Netherlands policy 

for the Horn of Africa. 

Facilitating contacts, exchange of information and building of regional knowledge 

regarding environmental governance issues between organisations and institutions in The 

Horn of Africa and stimulating joint programmes to rehabilitate damaged ecosystems. 

Based upon the integrated policy and the application of the above criteria, the embassy has 

developed a 3-year programme with a focus on certain key areas, as summarized in Box 2-3. 

We believe that better climate risk management is important to all three key areas, although it 

relates most directly to the embassy’s second assistance priority, namely contributing to 

8

Box 2-3: Netherlands Embassy assistance priorities 

(2006-08) 

1. Good governance, through: 

Empowerment of civil society 

Supporting the decentralization process 

Strengthening democratic structures and human 

rights 

Fighting corruption 

Improvement of environmental governance 

2.Poverty reduction and MDGs, through: 

Policy dialogue and decentralized social service 

delivery in education and health 

Boosting rural economic development and food 

security in a sustainable way 

Improving the investment climate and private sector 

development 

Migration and development 

3. Regional stability, through: 

Strengthening the role of African Union and RECs 

Supporting intra-regional cooperation and crossborder 

programmes on water and environment 

Supporting IDPs and refugees 

poverty reduction and other 

goals in the framework of the 

Millennium Development 

Goals, which also include 

stimulation of sustainable 

development. This is because 

the embassy’s strategy for this 

priority area focuses on specific 

projects that aim to improve 

accessibility and quality of 

service delivery to poor 

communities such as 

enhancement of food security 

systems, better land 

management, diversification of 

rural incomes, and promotion 

of health care. 

Clearly, projects in each of 

these broad categories could be 

adversely impacted by climate 

variability and extremes. First, food security in Ethiopia is especially susceptible given its 

strong dependence on rainfed agriculture (FAO, 2003). Second, a fast-growing population is 

aggravating land management and leading to greater vulnerability of these rainfed 

agricultural systems (Meyer, et al, 1998). Rural households are primarily dependent on these 

agricultural activities and do not have a sufficient income diversification to be able to 

withstand climatic shocks (Osman-Elasha, et al, 2006). Finally, the role of climatic shocks 

and poor health in rural areas is well established (WHO, 2001). As such, having a system in 

place that incorporates a climate risk component in the design of projects in these areas could 

ultimately assist the embassy in reaching its strategic goals in Ethiopia. 

Also in its efforts to stimulate regional stability the Embassy has recognised the importance 

of (underlying) environmental factors in several conflicts, particularly unregulated access to 

natural resources like water and (grazing) land due to poor environmental governance, 

especially poor land use planning and management, poor water resources management and 

poor management of nature conservation areas and wildlife corridors. The importance of 

environmental governance is also more and more often acknowledged by employees of the 

Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs, working in the general governance sphere. 

One of the important tactical aspects of the embassy’s assistance in Ethiopia is the deliberate 

coordination with other donors on advancing its priorities. The embassy signed a 

Memorandum of Understanding in 2005 with the Irish embassy to formalize what had 

already been recognized as close cooperation in certain country assistance areas. Talks are 

reported to be underway with the Swedish embassy to set up a similar cooperative agreement. 

In addition, there are several ad-hoc ongoing arrangements with the United Kingdom, the 

United States, Ireland, Norway, Belgium, France and Finland (RNE, 2005). 

There is also a type of formal coordination of donor activities that takes place within a 

coordination body called the Donor Assistance Group (DAG). Moreover, in 2003 a joint 

donor-government partnership architecture was developed. The highest coordinating body is 

the High Level Forum. Under the umbrella of the High Level Forum there is the DAG, and 

below that there are a number of Technical Working Groups representing all the important 

9

sectors and themes. These coordinating mechanisms are reported to be functioning 

reasonably well and becoming increasingly more effective in Ethiopia (RNE, 2005). 

2.5. National Policy Context 

As a backdrop to ongoing and future DGIS initiatives in Ethiopia, it is useful to understand 

the broad landscape of government policies and strategies, as there are potentially important 

synergies or barriers that can be identified. The summary below is intentionally brief in 

nature and focused exclusively on potential links/synergies of national policies and strategies 

with climate change adaptation. The review is based on the Project Team’s prior research in 

Ethiopia on the preparation of the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) effort 

(Dougherty, 2002). 

Some of the policies described below deal with climate variability directly (e.g., 

environmental policy, disaster prevention and management policy, national water policy and 

strategy). Other policies do not address climate variability or climate change directly (e.g., 

energy policy, rural land use and administration policy). Nevertheless, it is clear from a 

review of some of the measures proposed that there are clear links with climate risk 

management, though apparently not recognized as such. 

Conservation Strategy of Ethiopia (CSE): The CSE, together with the Environmental 

Policy, comprises Ethiopia’s primary sustainable development plan. As such the CSE has 

a large number of links with climate change adaptation, from shared objectives, such as 

human security and ecosystem resilience, to shared policy recommendations, to 

overlapping institutional involvement. Ethiopia’s conservation strategy has been taking 

shape over the past decade under the auspices of the EPA and the Ministry of Economic 

Development and Cooperation. Its aim is to provide the country with an encompassing, 

cross-sectoral framework for the management of resource conservation issues that takes a 

“holistic view of natural, human-made and cultural resources.” It also aims to integrate 

relevant existing planning processes into a coherent whole - specifically, through its ten 

sectoral and ten cross-sectoral “umbrella strategies.” Notably, the strategy addresses 

issues in the key vulnerable sectors identified in the FNC. Each of the regional states has 

developed more specific Regional Conservation Strategies, based on the national strategy. 

Environmental Policy: Like the CSE, Ethiopia’s Environmental Policy has many direct 

linkages to climate change adaptation. Most specific among these, climate change and 

atmospheric pollution are presented among the policy’s chief priorities; within this 

discussion, objectives such as effective climate monitoring and increased renewable 

energy use are outlined. Environmental policy has been taking shape over the past decade 

under the auspices of the EPA. Its aim is to provide the country with a framework for 

achieving environmental sustainability. 

National Protected Areas Management Plan: Ethiopia’s protected areas policy is related 

to climate change adaptation in large part through the role that protected areas can play in 

maintaining the capacity of species, watersheds, forests, rangelands, and other valuable 

national resources to withstand and recover from climate-related shocks and stressors. To 

our knowledge, the plan does not explicitly address climate variability or climate change. 

Disaster Prevention and Management Policy: Because of the increase in natural disasters 

that is anticipated in a climate change future, and the mounting challenge that climate 

change may pose to disaster management strategies, disaster prevention and management 

policy is directly related to climate change adaptation. This policy’s primary foci in 

Ethiopia are 1) relief efforts to eliminate the root causes of disaster vulnerability, 2) 

effective natural resource management to prevent future disasters, 3) community 

10

involvement in disaster management and prevention planning. Key components include: 

a) employment generation schemes (addressing chronic food insecurity by providing 

alternative livelihoods to households with little food security); b) strengthening 

emergency response capabilities (involving the preparation of vulnerability profiles for 

districts prone to food shortages, research on vulnerability, and design of response 

packages for vulnerable communities); c) early warning systems to monitor the possible 

occurrence and magnitude of natural climate-related disasters such as droughts and 

floods; and d) emergency Food Security Reserve (providing stored food grains to affected 

communities during unexpected emergency situations). 

Energy policy: Energy policy is related to climate change adaptation through the direct 

connection between energy use, greenhouse gas emissions, and the resulting severity of 

climate change, and on the other hand, through the increase in human security and 

resilience that clean, reliable, low-cost energy can bring to communities – particularly 

vulnerable, rural communities. The national energy policy calls for improved energy 

supply as well as energy efficiency and conservation, and includes expansion of 

afforestation to meet traditional energy requirements, with the goal of eventual transition 

to more modern energy sources. Embedded in these goals is the increased energy security 

of rural populations. To our knowledge, the policy does not explicitly address climate 

variability or climate change. 

Rural Land Use and Administration Policy: The linkage between Ethiopia’s rural land 

use policy and climate change adaptation may best be seen through a vulnerability 

framework, in which access to productive land, for farming or grazing livestock, can 

contribute to people’s relative resilience to a range of shocks, including climatic shocks 

like drought. This policy remains in unofficial draft form, but provisionally calls for 

improvements such as more secure and equitable land tenure laws and regulations for 

sustainable land use. To our knowledge, the plan does not explicitly address climate 

variability or climate change. Nevertheless, the linkages are clear when considered 

through a climate risk management perspective. 

Science and Technology Policy: Ethiopia’s science and technology policy is related to 

climate change adaptation in a range of ways, most notably through the priority it places 

on procurement and implementation of technologies for food security, rational resource 

use, and disaster forecasting and prevention. Priority areas of this policy include the 

introduction of new technologies which can support sustainable agriculture, water 

management and environmental protection, as well as the improvement and expansion of 

certain traditional technologies related to the above. 

Forestry Policy: In its draft stage, the Ethiopian Forest Action Plan seeks to meet demand 

for forest products, while balancing these with a number of conservation and ecological 

resilience-building measures, such as the development of community forestry projects. 

This policy is related to climate change adaptation in a number of ways. For example, 

insofar as it effectively supports the sound management of forests, forest policy can help 

ensure the provision of critical ecosystem services (such as regulation of run-off and 

prevention of desertification) as well as the opportunities forests can offer for livelihood 

diversification and security. To our knowledge, the policy does not explicitly address 

climate variability or climate change. Nevertheless, the linkages are clear when 

considered through a climate risk management perspective. 

National policy on biodiversity conservation research and development: In its effort to 

provide opportunities for the wise use of genetic resources, this type of policy has the 

potential to increase livelihood security, and thus adaptive capacity. The policy is 

11

designed to encourage and regulate the use of Ethiopia’s genetic resources; at the same 

time, it encourages community participation and benefit sharing in this potentially 

income-generating field. To our knowledge, the plan does not explicitly address climate 

variability or climate change. Nevertheless, the linkages are clear when considered 

through a climate risk management perspective. 

Soil and water conservation policy: In its focus on preventing soil degradation and 

erosion and limiting misuse of water resources, this policy responds to several of 

Ethiopia’s key climate change vulnerabilities – namely, reduced productivity of soils, 

accelerated desertification, and declining availability of water. The policy encourages 

responsible land stewardship through regulations for discouraging soil degrading 

activities, voluntary action, etc. In addition, it seeks to introduce useful conservation 

technologies and build awareness around the issues. 

National water policy and strategy: In general terms, Ethiopia’s water policy is directly 

related to climate change adaptation in that it seeks to govern one of the sectors that is 

identified as particularly vulnerable under climate change scenarios. This document, 

developed by the Ministry of Water Resources, is geared toward meeting a range of 

growing water needs, while increasing the capacity of rural populations to manage and 

maintain local water supplies. In addition, it seeks to address issues of drought mitigation. 

National agricultural research policy and strategy: Agricultural policy is geared toward 

ensuring food security and self-sufficiency for Ethiopia, key challenges under a climate 

change future. Major goals of this draft policy and strategy include increased selfsufficiency 

in food production, largely through the introduction of sustainable agricultural 

technologies, as well as the expansion of traditional farming technologies. 

National food security and entitlement strategies: Food security and entitlement policy is 

directly related to climate change adaptation in Ethiopia through its implications for 

vulnerable people under changing climatic conditions and potential increases in crop 

failure and food insecurity. The food security strategy focuses on improving agricultural 

production, food entitlement, and the country’s capacity to manage food crisis. In doing 

so, it is designed to provide coordination among overlapping sectoral programmes, and to 

support sustainable agriculture among smallholders and peasants. The food entitlement 

strategy focuses on capacity and infrastructure issues. That is, while seeking to strengthen 

mechanisms such as emergency food distribution systems, this strategy also focuses on 

reducing the vulnerability of people living in drought-prone regions through direct 

resilience-building and poverty-reducing activities. 

Pastoral Development Policy: The pastoral development policy is directly related to 

climate change adaptation, as it seeks to effectively govern one of the country’s most 

vulnerable sectors. Under climate change, Ethiopian grasslands are expected to succumb 

to desertification in certain areas (i.e., northwestern and southeastern parts of the 

country), heavily impacting dependent communities. Though quite new, and largely 

untried, this policy holds promise for providing pastoral populations with the type of 

support needed to secure livelihoods and combat desertification. 

Wildlife policy: Ethiopian wildlife is expected to be directly impacted by climate change 

through processes such as habitat and migratory passage loss. A number of Ethiopian 

species are seen as highly vulnerable to climate change. Wildlife policy is directly related 

to climate change adaptation, as it seeks to effectively govern one of the country’s key 

vulnerable sectors, preserve species therein and the habitats on which they depend. Aimed 

at preserving Ethiopia’s wildlife, and building the tourism industry, this policy gives 

12

significant control over animal populations to regional administrations, and encourages 

benefit sharing and collaborative management arrangements. 

Industrial policy: Industrial policy is linked to climate change adaptation in several ways, 

albeit somewhat indirectly. On the one hand, industrial development can exert strong 

negative pressures on vulnerable ecosystems and human populations, through e.g., 

pollution, increasing their vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. On the other 

hand, carefully designed industrial development can increase employment, income and 

livelihood security. Ethiopia’s industrial policy calls in part for more regionally balanced 

industrial development, with the direct goal of reducing poverty, and the indirect benefit 

of reducing pressures on the natural resource base. 

13

3. Key Premises for Climate Risk Management in Ethiopia 

Climate risks are associated with the variability and uncertainty of extreme climatic events 

such as flooding and drought. When this report refers to the “management” of these climate 

risks, what is meant is the integration of climate knowledge into sectoral investment 

planning. The need for climate risk management for the Netherlands donor assistance 

programme in Ethiopia is based on a number of premises that are briefly outlined in this 

section, and which directly lead to the approach used to screen projects as described in the 

section that follows. 

3.1. Ethiopia is Currently Maladapted to Current & Future Climate Risks 

While individuals and communities in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa region have been 

adapting for millennia to climate variability, it can in no way be argued that the country and 

the region are well adapted to current climate conditions. Indeed, much of the 

studies/articles/projects we have reviewed clearly paint a picture of a region which is 

struggling to cope with vulnerability of its forested areas, water resources and agricultural 

activities to current climatic conditions, not to mention the longer term impacts associated 

with climate change. 

Indeed, as described in the previous section, poor communities in Ethiopia are already highly 

vulnerable to climate risks as most recently evidenced by the extreme flooding events in 

2006. Settlements on marginal or unstable lands heightens their exposure to climate hazards 

while heavy dependence on ecosystem services can place their welfare -- and even survival -- 

at the mercy of environmental conditions. As the availability and quality of natural resources 

decline due to natural and human-induced pressures, so does the viability and security of their 

livelihoods. 

With limited capacities and resources at their disposal to respond to stresses such as droughts 

and floods, their ability to meet basic needs and move out of poverty is constrained. The 

intensification of climate variability and the more frequent occurrence of climate extremes 

therefore threaten to exacerbate existing vulnerabilities and further entrench development 

disparities. With regional changes and impacts already being observed, the need for adaptive 

response measures is urgent and must start with minimizing current vulnerabilities. 

Indeed, when future climate change is layered onto an already inadequate adaptation 

infrastructure context, the investment challenge becomes new and special insofar as it 

introduces additional risks to current and planned poverty alleviation and vulnerability 

reduction programs, sustainable development initiatives, and the ability of existing 

institutions to manage new and emerging risks. The effectiveness of addressing these new 

risks will depend upon how well the management of these risks can be integrated into 

ongoing development programmes that interact within national management and institutional 

practices. 

3.2. Serious Physical Impacts Accompany Extreme Climatic Events 

Both natural and human systems are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and some of 

these systems may be irreversibly damaged (Klein, et al., 2005). Impacts will depend on the 

region with some areas experiencing more extreme heat, whilst others may cool slightly. 

Flooding, drought, and heat waves would result, as well as more violent storms and more 

frequent extreme weather events due to the increased energy stored in the warming 

atmosphere. 

15

Climatic shocks and climate change have implications for disasters and disaster risk 

management in Ethiopia. Its impact is on the exposure to hydro-meteorological hazards 

(floods, droughts and storms) as well as modulating underlying risk factors, which influence 

vulnerability to environmental hazards and consequently the probability of disasters. Table 3- 

1 provides a number of examples of extreme climatic events and their expected physical 

impacts. As discussed in the previous section, this is already quite evident in Ethiopia. 

Table 3-1: Examples of projected changes in extreme climate phenomena, with examples of 

projected impacts (source van Aalst, 2006) 

3.3. Climatic Shocks Pose the Greatest Risk to Poor Populations 

In its Third Assessment Report, the IPCC indicated that the severity of climate change 

impacts depends not only on changes in temperature and precipitation patterns but on a host 

of other factors related to the various dimensions of poverty. Shocks associated with climate 

variability and climatic changes are likely to be experienced disproportionately by the poorest 

groups in developing countries. 

16

While the entire country of Ethiopia is vulnerable to climatic risks and shocks, the poorest 

communities (e.g., small farmers, livestock herders) will likely experience the greatest 

vulnerability. These populations are the most exposed as well as with the least means to 

adapt. Compounding this is a weak capacity of poor populations to adapt and the likelihood 

that their future will be increasingly compromised as such lands are further degraded. Indeed, 

this pattern is already transforming today’s climate extremes in Ethiopia into increasingly 

catastrophic events requiring disaster relief. 

3.4. Climatic Hazards will be Similar under Climate Change Conditions 

As indicated in the section 2.3, Ethiopia is expected to experience an increase in the 

frequency of climatic hazards such as droughts, flash flooding, and prolonged periods of 

reduced rainfall due to climate change. This will increase the pressure for many economic 

sectors and communities to meet productivity and development ambitions. However, it is 

important to note that the nature of the hazard under a changed climate in Ethiopia will likely 

be no different than it is under the current climate. 

This infers that many existing strategies, technologies, and programmes that have proven to 

be effective in reducing vulnerability to weather-related hazards will also be important as 

strategies for managing climate risks (Klein et al, 2006). Certainly, they will need to be 

adjusted to meet local needs, and innovation will continue to increase the effectiveness and 

efficiency of such strategies and technologies. But, many potential solutions themselves are 

already readily available and widely used. The point is that successful adaptation is possible 

without necessarily having to rely on totally new strategies and technologies developed 

specifically for adaptation. 

3.5. Anticipatory, Planned Action Needs to be Part of a Risk Management 

Responding to the challenge of addressing climate risks can be either reactive (after impacts 

have become observed) or anticipatory (before impacts are apparent) (Klein, 1998, Smit, el 

al, 2001). Relative to policymaking, another distinction can be based on whether the decision 

is motivated by private (individual households, commercial companies) or public interests 

(served by governments at national, regional, and local levels). Figure 3-1 shows some 

examples of possible adaptation activities for each of the five types of adaptation that have 

thus been defined. 

Carter et al (1994) suggested an additional distinction between planned and autonomous 

adaptation where planned adaptation describes the result of decisions that are based on an 

awareness that conditions have changed or are about to change, and that some type of action 

is required to achieve, maintain or return to a desired state. Autonomous adaptation refers to 

the changes that natural and (most) human systems undergo in response to changing 

conditions in their immediate environment, irrespective of any broader plan or policy-based 

decisions. Klein and Tol (1997) and Huq and Klein (2003) argue that this would take the 

following general forms (as synthesized by Klein et al (2006)): 

Increasing the ability of physical infrastructure to withstand the impacts of climate 

change. One approach, for example, would be to extend the temperature or rainfall range 

that a system can withstand; another would be to modify a system’s tolerance to loss or 

failure; 

Increasing the flexibility of potentially vulnerable systems that are managed by humans. 

This could include allowing for mid-term adjustments in management practices, including 

changes in use or location; 

17

Enhancing the adaptability of vulnerable natural systems. This could involve reducing 

stresses due to non-climatic effects, or removing barriers to the migration of plants or 

animals; 

Reversing trends that increase vulnerability. This could range from reducing human 

activity in vulnerable areas to preserving natural systems that protect against hazards; 

Improving public awareness and preparedness. This could include informing the public 

about the risks and possible consequences of climate change, as well as setting up earlywarning 

systems for extreme weather events. 

Figure 3-1: Matrix showing the five prevalent types of adaptation to climate change, including 

examples of possible adaptations (source: Klein et al, 2005) 

Anticipatory 

Reactive 

Natural 

Systems 

· Changes in length of growing 

season; 

· Changes in ecosystem composition; 

· Wetland migration. 

Human 

Systems 

· Purchase of insurance; 

· Construction of house on stilts; 

· Redesign of oil-rigs. 

· Early-warning systems; 

· New building codes, design 

standards; 

· Incentives for relocation. 

· Changes in farm practices; 

· Changes in insurance premiums; 

· Purchase of air-conditioning. 

· Compensatory payments, subsidies; 

· Enforcement of building codes; 

· Beach nourishment. 

In the figure above, anticipatory types of adaptation are straightforward and relatively selFexplanatory. 

Households can in advance of extreme climatic event, for example, purchase 

insurance to reduce risks from those events, while government agencies can develop early 

warning systems and new building codes that would aim to accomplish the same objectives. 

Reactive adaptation includes when, for example, the nature of wetlands is altered over time 

such that they no longer exist in places currently located (i.e., wetland migration) quite apart 

from intervention from any human agency. Reactive adaptation can also include steps taken 

by private households (e.g., planting of new types of crops (i.e., changes in farm practices) or 

by government agencies (e.g., replenishment of coastal zones to compensate for erosion from 

storm surges (i.e., beach replenishment)). 

3.6. Better Management of Climate Risks is “New” and Urgently Needed 

The present climate and its variability are already taken into account to some extent in the 

design and management of economic and social activities (Sperling and Szekely, 2005). 

Indeed, many of the programmes or activities that are needed to adapt to current climatic 

risks are similar to conventional development activities, including programs such as 

integrated water resource management, integrated coastal zone management practices, 

different (though currently available) types of technologies for agricultural production, etc. In 

this sense, anticipatory planned adaptation activities already exist. 

However, effective anticipatory planned adaptation needs to account for the increase in 

climatic extremes that accompany climate change. Van Aalst (2006) argues that what’s new 

about adaptation is not so much the particular technologies or activities that would reduce 

vulnerability but rather the planning framework in which activities are considered. That is, 

the rising risks of climate variability and their implications for development projects are not 

18

explicitly accounted for in the large percentage of investment decisions. That this is so is 

surprising given that climatic shocks pose a direct threat to investments from effects on 

infrastructure, indirect effects through diminished performance, and outright 

inappropriateness of investments in the face of climatic trends. 

Burton and Van Aalst (2004) argue a similar point, emphasizing that typical development 

projects and plans are reasonably well designed relative to average climatic risks but by far 

pay less attention to risks associated with climate variability and extreme events, which is 

resulting in rapidly rising disaster losses. They argue that this is due to, among other things, 

uncertainty and lack of information and conclude that a) adaptation needs to be integrated in 

national economic planning, b) adaptation should be based on “no-regrets” solutions, which 

deal with both current and future risks simultaneously, and c) adaptation needs to avoid 

stand-alone type projects but rather be incorporated into development planning processes. 

Within the context of a changing and uncertain climate, the assessment of climatic risks of 

investment decisions needs to become a conventional activity in feasibility studies. As others 

have effectively argued, it is in the context of an uncertain future that the challenge of 

adaptation lies, namely finding an acceptable level of risk and then taking measures before, 

the expected impacts occur. In contrast to current development planning experience, 

addressing climate risks from the outset is likely to result in investment decisions that 

increase diversification and reduce vulnerability, though at the cost of potential short-term 

benefits. The ultimate goal is for development planning and climatic risk assessment to be 

inextricably linked. 

19

4. Approach to Integrating Climate Risks in Project Design 

Many of the bilateral and regional donor assistance decisions implied in the 2006-08 

programme of the Netherlands Embassy in Ethiopia will be in sectors such as rural economic 

development, particularly agriculture; water and environment that have a long-term 

perspective and are explicitly affected by climatic conditions. This section addresses the 

question of how climate information and the accounting of climate-related risks can affect 

short-term decision making on project design. Specifically, we outline an approach that can 

be used to screen a wide range of development projects regarding the effectiveness to which 

climate concerns have been accounted for. After first providing an overview of the purpose of 

screening projects and some background on the approach to be used, we outline the specific 

steps in the detailed screening process. 

4.1. Overview of Possible Approaches 

The purpose of screening development projects for risks from climate change is to ensure that 

the proposed (or ongoing) project will be robust in the face of climatic extremes, as well as 

contribute to the long-term adaptive capacity of communities, economic sector and natural 

resource systems in the face of climate change. While the integration of climate concerns 

sometimes already occurs at some level in the preparation of environmental impacts 

statements (EIS) that are typically required before major development projects can be 

implemented, it is important to note that current approaches are inadequate, mainly because 

environmental impact assessment studies are not always implemented and if they are 

undertaken the required expertise is not always available or used. Besides, aside from a 

review of past climatic trends, little attention is typically given to the looming changes in 

frequency and volatility of extreme weather events that are expected to be triggered by 

climate change. The state of the art in climate risk assessment will need to advance in order to 

keep pace with emerging knowledge of climate forecasts, vulnerability of key systems, and 

technologies for adaptation. 

Burton and van Aalst (2004) argue for a “climate risk management” approach that would 

require climate risks to be taken into account from the very first stages of project 

development. The first step in their approach is an initial classification of projects that is done 

at the time of project identification, the purpose of which is to determine what type of 

attention is needed for projects entering the project cycle. They propose a simple routine risk 

screening methodology identifying if a project is "high-risk." If so, the risk management 

process would continue by doing a full assessment, which would then feed into the project 

design, just like all other types of information that is currently being considered. If projects 

are classified as “no or low risk”, then existing planning protocols would be followed. If 

projects are classified as “moderate/partial risk”, then some additional partial risk assessment 

would be warranted. 

Noble has developed a screening tool called ADAPT (Noble, 2005). The tool has a dual 

function - screening and designing – that is intended for adapting projects to climate change. 

The tool carries out the screening process by identifying the level of risk in a project through 

a simple five level classification. The designing process is carried out by providing a guide to 

options to minimize risk where necessary, based on past experience within World Bank and 

other relevant agencies (national and multinational), as well as recent research. The target of 

the tool is project developers, project assessors, and the NGO community. Its aim is to 

provide a first, quick check of potential climate-related issues by sector and region. The tool 

uses a system of flags to categorize the climate-related risks associated with the project. A red 

21

flag indicates that adaptation issues are important and the project should explicitly take them 

into account. A blue” flag indicates that the project represents a positive action for adaptation. 

As part of an ongoing research project, the Stockholm Environment Institute – US Centre 

(2005) in collaboration with its partners 1 has been working on a climate risk screening tool 

called CRISTAL (Community-based RIsk Screening Tool - Adaptation & Livelihoods). This 

tool aims to provide a basis for improving community- and project-based decision-making so 

that adaptation opportunities can be maximized, and vulnerability to climatic shocks can be 

reduced. CRISTAL offers project planners and managers a way of doing interactive climate 

risk management for planned or ongoing projects, and may also be relevant for project 

evaluation. 

CRISTAL takes a livelihoods approach to climate risk management premised on the fact that 

combining a secured natural resource base, reduced exposure to natural hazards and 

diversified livelihood activities will increase local resilience to a range of future threats, 

including climate extremes and climate change. The tool has three main goals: a) understand 

aspects of a particular project that are directly related to climatic hazards and coping capacity 

at the community level; b) evaluate the specific effect of project activities on this capacity, 

and c) determine changes that could be made to improve the projects’ effect. The outputs of 

the use of the tool are specific measures or activities to incorporate into project design. There 

is no classification into risk categories or system of flags, per se, as the tool is implicitly 

designed to be used in “high risk” or “red flagged” projects, to use the terminology of the 

previously described screening approaches. 

4.2. Choice of Approach 

In our view, managing climate risks in development planning requires an understanding of 

how local livelihoods are conducted and sustained, as the environmental and economic assets 

and capabilities that comprise peoples’ livelihoods often shape vulnerability and the ability to 

reduce it. Moreover, by understanding the dynamics of poor people’s livelihoods one can 

begin to understand how they will be affected by climate change impacts, how they might 

respond with the resources they have, and how these conditions can be reflected and built 

upon for successful adaptation strategies at both the project and programme portfolio levels. 

Given the reliance of the poor on environmental services for their livelihoods, a central 

element regarding our choice of approach is the degree to which livelihood issues are directly 

addressed. On the other hand, the Terms of Reference for this assignment seem to clearly 

suggest that the output of the project screening exercise should be some relatively 

straightforward categorization of project by the level of climate risks. Hence, a blended 

approach will be used that seeks to incorporate elements of each of the approaches reviewed 

in the previous subsection. 

That is, the broad risk classification system advocated by Burton and van Aalst will be 

applied based on an initial assessment of the set of projects identified for assessment. This 

will identify which projects are “high risk” and “medium risk” and hence are in need of 

further assessment. Projects in these two risk categories will be further screened by use of the 

CRISTAL methodological approach with its focus on securing local livelihoods through 

environmental/natural resource management. It is important to note that this latter approach is 

a rigorous, analytical process that requires significant data, input from project-affected 

stakeholders, and iterative research. Given the limitations of the current, it can only be 

applied in a streamlined, illustrative way. 

1 IUCN, IISD, and Intercooperation 

22

4.3. Streamlined Approach to using CRISTAL 

The methodological approach embodied in the CRISTAL tool will be judiciously applied to 

several existing development projects in Ethiopia that are classified as “high risk” and 

“medium risk”, as described in the next section. As indicated earlier, the application of 

CRISTAL will be streamlined and illustrative because the proper approach implies a rigorous 

treatment of climatic, livelihood, and project design considerations. Given the time 

limitations involved in the preparation of this report, it was not possible to assemble the full 

range of information required. Nevertheless, the broad contours of the approach are amenable 

to the assignment and will be used for preliminary screening of the selected projects. 

At the outset, it is important to emphasize that the sustainable livelihoods framework is the 

basis for the methodological approach. Briefly, the sustainable livelihoods framework seeks 

to obtain a better understanding of how local livelihood activities are conducted, and how 

these are impacted by climatic hazards and environmental conditions. By better 

understanding the dynamics of people’s livelihoods and how these are affected by 

environmental realities, one can begin to understand how they will be affected by climate 

risks, how they might respond with the resources they have, and how these conditions can be 

reflected and built upon for successful adaptation strategies at the project level. There are 

five key steps involved in the screening process, as illustrated in Figure 4-1. The first four of 

these are briefly discussed in the subsections that follow. The fifth step is simply a report 

generated by the model that synthesizes the results of the initial four steps. 

Figure 4-1: Climate risk screening process used 

Set the climate 

context 

Set the livelihoods 

context 

Screen project 

activities 

Adjust project 

activities to manage 

climate risks 

Summary project 

profile 

Understand the Current and Future Climate Context 

Understanding the climate context of the project area will help facilitate .the process of 

thinking through the relationship between the project in question and local, climate-related 

coping strategies. There are four broad steps involved as summarized in Figure 4-2, and 

summarized in the bullets below. This step will be streamlined by reviewing and evaluating 

information available in Ethiopia’s First National Communication under the Framework 

Convention on Climate Change. 

Step 1: What are potential climate change impacts in the project area? This focuses on 

projected impacts that are expected with climate change. Examples of climate change 

impacts include reduced agricultural production, increased vector borne diseases, etc. 

23

Step 2: What are current climate hazards in the project area? This focuses on current 

climatic hazards experience in the project area. Examples of climate hazards include 

storm surges, windstorms, rainfall shortages, flash flooding, etc. 

Step 3: What are current climate-related impacts in the project area? Examples of 

impacts include crop damage, income losses, reduced soil fertility, etc. 

Step 4: How do people cope? Examples of coping strategies include asset liquidation, 

food storage, urban migration, etc. 

Figure 4-2: Steps involved in setting the climate context 

1 Info on 

potential 

impacts in 

area 

4 Current 

coping 

strategies 

in area 

Climate 

Context 

Profile 

2 Current 

hazards in 

project 

area 

3 Current 

impacts in 

project 

area 

Understand the Livelihood Context 

Once the climate context has been defined, the next step in the screening process is to 

understand the livelihood context. Understanding the livelihood context is essential to 

facilitate thinking through how livelihood resources and activities are related to current 

climate impacts and coping strategies. Setting the livelihood context involves answering 3 

broad questions, as follows: 1) what resources are important to peoples’ livelihoods in the 

project area?; 2) how are these related to current climate hazards and impacts?; and 3) how 

are these related to current climate coping strategies? 

The screening process addresses these questions through the five livelihood resources that 

typically prevail at project sites: natural resources, physical capital, financial resources, social 

capital, and human resources. Setting the livelihood context involves exploring the extent to 

which these resources have a direct connection with local livelihoods in the project area (see 

Figure 4-3). This step will be streamlined by reviewing and evaluating local livelihoods 

information as it may be available in project design documents. A description of each of the 

five livelihood resources is provided below. 

Natural resources: This refers to the natural resource stock from which resource flows 

useful to livelihoods are derived. Examples of natural resources include forest products, 

freshwater products, land, etc. 

Physical capital: Physical capital refers to the basic infrastructure and productive capital 

available in the project area. Examples include roads, buildings, electricity, and 

communications. 

24

Financial resources: These are resources – such as savings, credit, regular remittances, 

pensions, and insurance – that are available to people and provide them with different 

livelihood options. 

Social capital: Social capital refers to the set of social relationships from which people 

draw in pursuit of their livelihood. Examples include community organizations, 

men’s/women’s groups, non-governmental organizations, etc. 

Human resources: These refer to the skills, knowledge, capacity and good health 

important to the pursuit of livelihoods. Examples include skills and training in agriculture, 

human health care, veterinary health, etc. 

Figure 4-3: Steps involved in setting the livelihood context 

1 


resources 

5 

Human 

resources 

Livelihood 

Context 

Profile 

2 

Physical 

capital 

4 

Socal 

capital 

3 

Finanical 

resources 

Once those resources that have a direct connection with local livelihoods in the project area 

have been defined, it is important to assess the extent to which the selected resources are 

affected by each of the climate hazards that have been identified in the earlier climate context 

step. A 5-point rating system that includes very low, low, fair, high and very high is used to 

score the influence of the climate hazards and collective coping strategies on the particular 

resources selected. Those resources to which the user ascribes a score of either high or very 

high are flagged for further evaluation in the subsequent project activity screening process. 

Screen Project Activities 

Once the climate and livelihood contexts have been adequately defined, the actual screening 

of actual project activities is possible. The purpose of this step is to identify aspects of the 

project that are directly linked to local coping and adaptive capacity. Those resources that 

were identified in the previous step for setting the livelihood context as being important to 

local livelihoods, climate and coping serve as the basis for evaluating the impact of specific 

project activities on adaptive capacity. That is, each project activity needs to be assessed in 

terms of its effect on important natural resources, physical assets, etc. If the effect is either 

positive or negative, the activity will be flagged for follow-up in adaptation management 

planning. Typically, information will be gathered through participatory research methods 

including interviews, group meetings, community workshops, household surveys. Given the 

constraints of the current assignment, this information will be inferred from available 

documents. 

25

Screening project activities for the degree to which they address climate risks involves 

answering the question about how project activities impact those resources that have been 

previously identified as having a strong association to local livelihoods, as well as climate 

and-or coping strategies (see Figure 4-4). 


1 

Impact on 


resources 

5 

Impact on 

Human 

resources 

Project 

Activity 

Screening 

Profile 

2 Impact 

on 

Physical 

capital 

4 

Impact on 

Social 

capital 

3 Impact 

on 

Finanical 

resources 

Once project activities have been defined (up to 9 are possible within the current version of 

the model; more could be added if needed), one can evaluate their impact on key resources – 

i.e. those that received a score of high or very high in the livelihood context step, using the 

categories shown in Table 4-1 to evaluate project activity impact. Those activities that score 

as having either a POSTIVE or NEGATIVE effect on the availability of or access to key 

livelihood resources are then themselves flagged for follow-up in the next step of the 

screening process – i.e. climate risk management planning. This step will be streamlined by 

identifying specific project activities as they may be available in project design documents, 

and then conducting a brief impact assessment as outlined in the table below. 

Table 4-1: System used for assessing impact of project activities on adaptation 

Effect of activity? Observed relationship between project activity and key resources 2 

Negative 

The project activity reduced or weakened the availability of or access to 

key capital / resources 

Neutral 

The project activity did not affect the availability of / access to key 

capital / resources 

Positive 

The project activity increased or strengthened the availability of or 

access to key capital / resources 

Unknown 

The project activity’s effect on the availability of or access to key capital 

/ resources is unknown 

N/A 

The project activity is not related to the availability of or access to key 

capital / resources 

2 It is recognised that in certain cases it may be necessary to limit access to natural resources in the short-term in 

order to prevent ecological collapse and preserve ecosystems in the long-term. For example: a project which 

aims to ensure the long-term sustainability of livelihoods and resource use in an area and has an activity which 

reduces the short-term access of households to a certain key resource would be deemed as having a positive 

impact if that same project provides an alternative solution in the short-term to the households dependent on that 

key resource in order to not weaken their livelihoods/increase the vulnerability of their livelihoods. 

26

Redesign Project Activities to Account for Climatic Risks 

The purpose of this step is to clarify how project activities with a positive impact on coping 

and adaptive capacity can be enhanced and how activities with a negative impact can be 

adjusted. Project activities that were identified as having positive or negative impacts on local 

livelihood resources are reviewed in this step and adjusted as necessary so that opportunities 

to enhance coping and adaptive capacity are maximized, and risks are minimized (see Figure 

4-5). 


1 

Identify 

flagged 

activities 

4 

Reassess 

values for 

indicators 

Risk 

Profile for 

Project 

Activities 

2 

Define 

activity 


3 

Assess 

values for 


The key question that the climate risk management process seeks to answer is: how can 

project activities be modified to enhance coping and adaptive capacity? To address this 

question, it is necessary to list project activities that have positive or negative impacts on key 

livelihood resources and develop indicators, which will provide a basis for analyzing and 

developing project adjustments. This step will be streamlined by suggesting specific project 

activities that could be considered. 

4.4. Rationale for Project Selection 

As indicated earlier, there are certain priorities of the Netherlands embassy that potentially 

intersect climate risk management issues. In the selection of projects for the screening, we 

have deliberately focused on identifying projects in these critical areas. 

A key challenge that we needed to address at the outset of this assignment was how to select 

the most appropriate set of projects in Ethiopia to screen for climate risks. As a first step, we 

posed the question: how can the embassy’s strategic objectives inform the selection of 

specific projects? To answer this question, we identified the embassy’s strategic priorities 

that are the most likely, in our view, to be adversely affected by climate risks. This facilitated 

the process of identifying priority actions that potentially intersect climate risk management 

issues. 

Of the embassy’s three stated priorities for its cooperation programme with Ethiopia in the 

2006-2008 period (i.e., governance, poverty reduction, and regional stability, as described in 

Box 2-3), all three priorities have potentially strong linkages to climatic risks. For poverty 

reduction, projects aim to deliver decentralized social services, promote rural economic 

development, and improve food security. The effectiveness of each of these types of projects 

can be jeopardized by not accounting for climatic risks. For regional stability, a subset of 

27

projects supporting cross-border programmes in water and environment are chosen for a 

similar reason and particularly in the Horn of Africa Regional Environment Programme 

improvement of environmental governance is the main topic. 

We have selected a total of eight projects that can be considered to fall within the Poverty 

Reduction and the Regional Stability priorities of the 2006-08 Plan (as well as some linked to 

the Good Governance priority through their emphasis on environmental governance). A 

summary of the selected projects appears in Table 4-2. The rest of this report contains 

separate Sections devoted to each of the projects listed in Table 4-2. 

Each section that follows a) discusses the projects relative to its location, aims, extent to 

which climate issues are currently addressed, b) provides an assessment of the vulnerability 

of the projects relative to climatic shocks, and c) screens the projects using the approach 

discussed in this section, as briefly outlined in the two step process below: 

Table 4-2: List of projects screened for climate risks 

No. Project Most important 

Embassy Priority Areas 

1 Kafa Development Programme 

Poverty reduction/ 

Environmental 

governance 

2 Central Rift Valley 

Environmental 

governance/ Poverty 

reduction 

3 Nile Basin initiative (NBI) 

Regional stability/ 

Environmental 

governance 

4 Bale integrated forest management 

Environmental 

governance/ Poverty 

reduction 

5 Horn of Africa Regional Environment Network 

Environmental 

Governance/ Regional 

stability 

6 Koka dam 

Environmental 

Governance/ Poverty 

reduction 

7 Greater Boma Park initiative 

Environmental 

Governance/ Regional 

Stability 

8 GEF Small Grants Programme 

Environmental 

Governance/ Poverty 

reduction 

Step 1: Apply the World Bank’s approach, as described in Burton & Van Aalst (2004). 

This enables a broad classification of the different projects into high (RED), medium 

(ORANGE) and low (GREEN) risk projects. For the projects identified as high and 

medium risks, a second and more detailed screening process is applied by using the 

CRISTAL tool. 

Step 2: Apply the CRISTAL screening approach to all projects that have been classified 

as RED or ORANGE projects. This involves understanding the local climate context, 

establishing the livelihood context, describing key project activities, and proposing 

specific measures to better manage climate risks. 

28

5. Kafa Development Programme 

The Kafa Zone is located in the Southern Nations Nationalities and Peoples Region (SNNPR) 

in south-west Ethiopia and covers an area of 11,000 km 2 , with a population estimated at over 

800,000. The zone is characterized by its high altitudes with 71% of the Zone situated in the 

highlands and 29% in the lowlands. In contrast to the majority of areas in Ethiopia, which are 

suffering from land degradation, deforestation (Ethiopia lost 77% of its forested area from 

1955 to 1979) and high population pressure, the Kafa Zone is still rich in forests and 

experiences relatively low population pressure with a population density varying between 30 

and 70 inhabitants per square kilometre. 

The key assets of the Kafa Zone are its deep and relatively fertile soils, favourable climatic 

conditions (abundant rainfall) and forest resources. The forests in Kafa are widely 

acknowledged for their high biodiversity values (the genetic cradle of coffee) and represent 

one of the last remaining areas of closed highland forest in Ethiopia. 377,000 ha or 34% of 

Kafa Zone is covered with some form of natural forest cover. Kafa Zone also contains some 

valuable wetlands covering 49,000ha. 

Livelihoods in Kafa zone mainly consist of subsistence farming based on shifting cultivation. 

60% of the households access between 1 and 3ha of land while 35% have no access to land. 

The dominant crops grown are maize, teff, sorghum and pulses at mid-altitudes and wheat 

and barley at high altitudes. The landless households are dependent on forest resources for 

their income, well-being and food security. Despite the favourable agro-climatic conditions 

crop yields remain low and 40% of the households are considered poor. The health situation 

in the Zone is sub-standard and there is a lack of infrastructure development, particularly a 

good road network. However, despite this situation none of the 10 woredas in Kafa Zone are 

included in the government defined food-insecure areas. 

Despite its forest resources, the rate of deforestation currently stands at 22,500ha per year and 

there are strong concerns and a high risk potential that Kafa could in a short period of time 

lose its productive base and find itself in the same situation as the majority of areas in 

Ethiopia. There are also reports that soil fertility is declining and there are concerns that soil 

erosion will become a major problem in the future especially if population pressure increases. 

It is also recognized that there is a real need in Kafa Zone to enhance the capacity of the 

Department of Agriculture and the Woreda offices of agriculture and to identify and deliver 

appropriate extension packages to improve crop and livestock production and natural 

resource management. 

5.1. Aims and objectives of project 

The Kafa Development Programme (KDP) is a 5-year rural economic development 

programme which aims to strengthen the capacity of government and non-government 

institutions to provide services which will allow the people in Kafa to enhance their social 

and economic conditions by exploiting the available opportunities and creating new ones. 

KDP is the third phase of Dutch development assistance to Kafa after the programmes 

SUPAK-S (1996-99) and SUPAK (1999-2004). The emphasis of the KDP programme has 

however shifted from an implementing role to an advisory role. The budget for KDP is 

8,859,436 Euros with an additional 2.5million Euros for the environmental component. 

KDP follows the sector-wide approach of the Ethiopian government and its aims are 

supportive and complementary to the Ethiopian government’s Sector Development 

Programme and Food Security Strategy. KDP will be implemented under Ethiopia’s 

decentralization policy, with the major responsibilities for decision-making, planning and 

29

implementation activities transferred to the Woredas. Under this new policy the Woredas 

now have major responsibilities for decision-making, planning and implementation of 

development activities. KDP will provide advisory and financial support directly to the 

Woredas. 

KDP has seven objectives: 

1. Strengthen government service delivery 

2. Strengthen community initiatives and organizations 

3. Strengthen good governance and democracy 

4. Generate and disseminate innovative technologies and approaches 

5. Stimulate processing and marketing of agricultural products to create more income 

in Kafa 

6. Enhancement of food security 

7. Improvement of health and education services 

KDP will not cover all areas of social and economic development and for example will only 

provide a complementary role in the sector of Health and Education. The main emphasis of 

the programme will be in the areas of support to communities’ own development initiatives 

and the creation of an environment conducive to economic development. In terms of 

economic development KDP will emphasize the exploitation of the many under-utilized 

productive opportunities as well as the promotion of structures and services, which can 

support their development, such as cooperative groups and credit provision. Examples of 

underexploited products in Kafa, which can be produced in an environmentally friendly 

manner, include coffee, honey, tea, spices, silk and bamboo. 

KDP’s support pathways are divided into two: one for strengthening government services 

(the Government Strengthening or GOS component), in particular at the Woreda level, and 

one for promoting and supporting initiatives by the communities (the Community Initiative 

Promotion or CIP component). Within the GOS component the programme staff will work 

entirely in an advisory capacity with implementation responsibilities in the hands of local 

structures. Within the CIP component programme staff will work directly with communities, 

community groups and the private sector. An environmental component which deals with 

environmental and natural resource management issues at large has recently been added to 

the KDP and will be incorporated into the GOS and CIP components. The environmental 

component addresses six themes, amongst which are the protection of a selected number of 

forests and wetlands, increasing economic revenues from forest products, reducing external 

threats to the forest, and integrated planning and more sustainable use of agricultural and 

water potentials. 

5.2. Extent to which climate is referenced in planning documents 

Climate variability and climate change are not referenced in any of the documents relating to 

the KDP. Despite the identification of some risks to the successful completion of the 

programme, such as a lack of enterprising farmers and a weak civil society in Kafa, climate 

variability and climate change were not identified as risks. Sustainable development and the 

“sustainable use of agriculture and water potentials” are mentioned within the environmental 

component but within that component there is still no reference to climate change and its 

potential impacts on agricultural and water potentials/resources. There also appears to be a 

lack of attention paid to current climate, climate variability and climate risks, as the project 

30

documents do not describe current climate in the Kafa zone nor the impacts that climate has 

on local livelihoods and could have on the project’s activities. 

5.3. Potential vulnerabilities and benefits of project in context of climate change 

It is apparent from reviewing KDP’s objectives that some of the components of KDP are at 

risk of climate change. In particular the activities under the objectives 4, 5, 6 and 7 could be 

the most affected if climate change is not taken into account. For example, when generating 

new technologies, such as improved crop varieties, it is important to identify the type of 

climate that will be prevalent in the zone in the future in order to ensure that the crops 

developed will not only be accepted by the communities but will also be resistant to future 

climate. The promotion of the wrong type of crop will increase communities’ vulnerability, 

as they will become accustomed to and dependent on a crop that is maladapted to future 

climate and this will lead to increased household income and food insecurity. 

The promotion of the diversification of livelihoods is a positive activity in the context of 

climate change (it helps increase the resilience of communities by diversifying their resource 

base and income sources), but such an activity must ensure that the income-generating 

activities that are promoted do not all have the same climate sensitivity so that if one income 

source is affected by a drought or flood another income source is not affected by that same 

climate event. 

The improvement of health services also needs to take the potential impacts of climate 

change into account, especially as climate change may lead to increased risk of vector-borne 

diseases, such as malaria. A strategy that does not take the possibility of increased incidence 

of vector-borne diseases, and therefore does not fund sufficient prevention as well as 

response measures and does not take into account that an increased number of people will 

need, for example, anti-malarial drugs or even bed nets, will not be effective in the long-run. 

The activities implemented under the first three objectives should, on the other hand, help to 

increase the communities’ resilience to climate change, as extension services should be 

improved and community based organizations will be strengthened. Recent adaptation 

research suggests that collective action through community based organizations is an 

important way through which households adapt to droughts and floods. The presence of 

extension services in communities also enables households to access knowledge, information 

and other resources that they would not have been able to access otherwise, and this also 

helps to increase their resilience to climate shocks, such as droughts and floods. 

5.4. Screening for Climate Risks 

Climate risks to the country: As explained in section 2.3, Ethiopia is likely to 

experience higher temperatures and increased climate extremes, such as droughts and 

floods, even if the direction of rainfall change is not yet certain. From these projections, it 

can therefore be expected that any project implemented in Ethiopia may be at risk from 

droughts and floods. For example, the SNNPR (region in which Kafa zone is situated) 

was amongst the regions affected by floods in August 2006. 

Climate risks to the project: There does not appear to be any direct risks to the project 

as a whole, but certain components of the project are likely to be negatively affected by 

climate change (as explained in the above section), and this is likely to result in the underperformance 

of the project. 

External climate risks affected by project: This project, however, is likely to have 

positive effects on external vulnerability (as explained above) and explicitly incorporating 

31

climate risks would add significantly to the benefits of this projects and would help 

increase the resilience of communities to climate risks. 

In conclusion, this preliminary risk screening process enables us to classify the Kafa 

Development Programme as a CATEGORY ORANGE project due to the potential effects 

of climate change on some of its components. CRISTAL is then applied to this project in 

order to carry out a more detailed screening. 

Climate Context 

Kafa zone is a zone with favourable agro-climatic conditions and generally high rainfall 

levels. Although no specific information has been found on climate risks in Kafa, it is 

assumed that floods, landslides and droughts are all possible climate risks for this region (the 

SNNP region was affected by the August 2006 floods), but that the major climate risk in this 

region is floods. Kafa zone is also likely to experience increased temperatures in the future. 

It is expected that in Kafa zone floods would result in income losses for households, crop 

damage and losses, damage to dwellings and infrastructure, increased soil erosion, and 

possible increases in vector-borne diseases such as onchocerciasis (larvae breed in fast 

flowing water, so it is possible that flooding could cause a peak in onchocerciasis 

occurrence), malaria and elephantiasis (flooded zones would provide a breeding ground for 

mosquitoes) 3 . An increase in temperature is likely to affect the natural vegetation and forests 

in Kafa, and experts are concerned that the growth and production of coffee plants will be 

affected by the predicted temperature increase and this would lead to significant impacts on 

households who depend on coffee as their main source of income. 

Livelihood Context 

The livelihood context is based on the five types of livelihood resources (natural, physical, 

financial, social and human resources). Kafa zone is rich in natural resources with fertile 

soils, large forests which are used for fuel, income, food and building equipment, agricultural 

land, livestock and wetlands. In contrast Kafa is relatively poor in terms of physical 

resources, with low levels of electricity provision, no tar roads, six secondary schools, only 

one partially functioning hospital (with no doctor), and low coverage of safe water and 

sanitation. 

In terms of financial resources, households have some liquid assets (through the ownership of 

livestock and production of crops) and may be able to access some forms of micro-credit, but 

they lack access to markets. Kafa zone also has low levels of social and human resources, 

with only a few NGOs, local CBOs (there is a lack of strong grassroots CBOs) and 

governance institutions present in the zone and is characterized by low education levels. 

However, the government is aiming to establish Farmer Training Centres, which would help 

improve agricultural extension. 

Floods will impact these resources in different ways, with the strongest impacts most likely 

on agricultural land, livestock, households’ agricultural equipment (these can get washed 

away with the floods), households’ financial resources, and roads (as they are not tarred). An 

3 Onchocerciasis is also known as River Blindness, as the black flies that transmit this disease abound in fertile 

riverside areas. This disease only affects humans and causes chronic suffering and severe disability and often 

leads to blindness (WHO Website). Lymphatic Filariasis, also known as Elephantiasis, is transmitted by 

mosquitoes and causes the enlargement of legs, arms, breasts and genitals, which often prevents the person 

infected from having a normal working life. A third of people infected with this disease live in Africa (WHO 

Website). 

32

increase in temperature is likely to negatively affect crop productivity and coffee production, 

which will result in more vulnerable livelihoods as food and income security are reduced. 

Project Activity Profile 

KDP has three components to it: the GOS, CIP and currently also the environmental 

component that will be integrated in both GOS and CIP over time. The GOS component 

activities aim to provide support to government services through capacity building of the 

Zonal and Woreda offices and staff. Some of the activities supported by the GOS component 

involve the improvement of the infrastructure of the offices, the improvement of staff 

knowledge, the allocation of funds to the Woredas, the strengthening of health delivery and 

education, and rural development. 

The rural development aspect deals with skill development in extension services and the 

implementation of rural development activities, such as the promotion of crop diversification, 

perennial crops and silk production, animal production, storage and processing of agricultural 

produce, input supply, beekeeping and improvement of accessibility. The CIP component 

aims to enhance community-level organization and access to credit and improve their 

economic development through improving households’ skills, their agricultural production 

and their marketing strategies. 

The activities in the environment component focus on the protection and sustainable 

management of forest and other resources, on promoting environmental education and on 

raising public awareness on environment and natural resources management. The activities 

proposed under the three components are expected to have a positive impact on the livelihood 

resources in Kafa zone (see Table 5-1), as they focus on the development of better 

management practices, conservation of natural resources, enhancement of livelihood diversity 

and strengthening local capacity to sustainably manage the range of local resources. 

Table 5-1 shows not only the positive impact that KDP activities will have on livelihood 

resources but also the impact that floods have on these resources. This table, therefore, 

illustrates how some KDP activities could be at risk of under-performing if they do not take 

into account potential flood impacts. 

Table 5-1: Impact of KDP activities (positive, negative, neutral) and floods (Scale 1 to 5, with 5 

being maximum impact) on livelihood resources in Kafa zone. 

Livelihood Resources 

Project 

Impact 

Flood 

Impact 

Fertile soils + 4 

Land + 5 


Forest resources + 2 

Resources 

Livestock + 3 

Wetlands + 1 

Agricultural equipment + 3 

Roads + 5 

Physical Hospital + 1 

Low coverage of safe water and sanitation + 4 

Schools + 3 

Liquid assets + 5 

Financial Micro-credits + 3 

Market access + 1 

NGOs Neutral 1 

Social CBOs + 1 

Local governance institutions + 1 

Human 

Low education levels + 1 

Farmer Training Centre + 1 

33

Managing climate risks 

Noticeably absent from the discussion of the different activities is the integration of climate 

concerns. Although many of the capacity building and support activities are not affected by 

climatic events, some of the activities relating to health and rural development would benefit 

from the integration of climatic concerns. 

For example, there is no mention of early warning systems or drought forecasting systems, 

but these can be very useful tools for farmers as it can help them choose the types and 

varieties of crops to plant and when to plant them. These early warning systems could be 

circulated by the extension officers (training would have to be provided to ensure that the 

extension officers understand how to use these). 

The GOS component could also include a climate component by aiming to increase the 

awareness of climate change amongst local government staff. The research on the crop 

diversification and animal production possibilities should not only look at the marketing 

possibilities but also at the appropriateness of certain crops and the promotion of animal 

production under climate change, including rising temperatures and more frequent floods 

(e.g. a warmer climate may affect the growth and productivity of coffee plants). 

With regards to the activities related to the strengthening of health delivery these should 

include an assessment of climate change and variability on the occurrence of certain diseases 

such as malaria, onchocerciasis and elephantiasis in order to have the right health plans and 

services in place if the extent and prevalence of these diseases increases under climate 

change. 

Within the environment component environmental education should include awarenessraising 

about climate change and about the potential of certain activities for the mitigation of 

and adaptation to climate change. Raising the issue and potential impacts of a changing 

climate early on could facilitate the introduction in later years of new technologies, strategies, 

and management practices as the rationale for such changes will have already been broached. 

The development of up-to-date maps and databases of remaining forest and other resources 

(proposed activity in environment component) could be overlain by maps of climatic hot 

spots being researched separately by analysis in the Meteorology department. These maps 

could in turn feed into the integrated impact assessment of proposed investment schemes (this 

extends the environmental component activity on environmental screening of proposed 

activities). 

34

6. Central Rift Valley 

The Central Rift Valley (CRV) in Ethiopia is characterized by a chain of lakes and wetlands 

with unique hydrological and ecological characteristics. The CRV covers an area of about 

1.3million ha. The four main lakes in the CRV are Lakes Ziway, Abiyata, Langano and Shala 

(see Figure 6-1). These lakes provide habitats for a wide range of birds, indigenous animals, 

trees, flowers and other vegetation. 

While Lake Ziway is the centre of agricultural development, lakes Abiyata and Shala are 

important nature reserves and belong to the Abiyata-Shala Lakes National Park (Hengsdijk & 

Jansen, 2006a). Lake Abiyata is an important feeding site for Flamingos, White Pelicans and 

other water fowl and the islands in Lake Shala act as a nesting ground for large numbers of 

Pelicans. The Abiyata-Shala Lakes National Park has been submitted by the Ethiopian 

Government as a candidate site to the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands (Hengsdijk & Jansen, 

2006b). 

Figure 6-1: Map of the Central Ethiopian Rift Valley and its four lakes (Legesse et al, 2004). 

Lake Ziway is a freshwater lake and has two major incoming rivers, the Ketar and Meki 

Rivers. Lakes Ziway and Abiyata are hydrologically connected by the Bulbula River, which 

provides Lake Abiyata with a major part of its water inflow. The other source of water inflow 

for Lake Abiyata is Lake Langano through the Horakelo River. Lakes Abiyata and Shala are 

both closed terminal lakes (Legesse et al, 2004). 

Large scale irrigation in the Lake Ziway catchment started in the 1970s, extracting water 

directly from the lake and its two main rivers, the Meki and Ketar rivers. In 1998 annual 

abstraction for irrigation from the Ziway system was estimated at about 28 million cubic 

meters (Ayenew, 2004). Currently due to the expansion of flower farms and other vegetable 

fields the abstraction is estimated to be far higher than this 1998 figure (Legesse et al, 2005), 

resulting in less inflow into the Bulbula River. 

In addition, a number of irrigation fields pump water from the Bulbula River which links 

Lake Ziway to Lake Abiyata. This river is no longer a permanent stream and is often almost 

dry in its downstream section during the dry season. This has a dramatic impact not only on 

the level and chemistry of Lake Abiyata, as the River Bulbula is its primary feeder, but also 

on the downstream population along the river that depends on River Bulbula as their major 

source of freshwater. The total annual amount of water diverted (both for irrigation and 

domestic water consumption) from Bulbula River was estimated at about 58.5 million m 3 in 

35

1996 (Legesse et al, 2004) (38% of the mean annual Bulbula river discharge recorded over 

the past 30 years), of which 24 million m 3 is extracted by the state farm for irrigation 

(Legesse et al, 2004; Hengsdijk & Jansen, 2006a). 

In contrast to Lake Ziway, Lake Abiyata is a strongly saline and alkaline lake and its water is, 

therefore, not suitable for irrigation. However, a soda ash factory was built near this lake in 

the mid-1980s and it is estimated that this factory extracts between 2.25 million m 3 and 15 

million m 3 of water per year from Lake Abiyata (Hengsdijk & Jansen, 2006a). An increase in 

salinity and alkalinity of the water in Lake Abiyata has been observed over the last 50 years 

and it is believed that the extraction of water from the lake for the soda ash factory as well as 

the low inflow of water from the Bulbula river are the main reasons for the increase in 

salinity (Hengsdijk & Jansen, 2006a). This change in the salinity and alkalinity of the lake 

may have impacts on the flamingo and pelican populations that use this lake, especially if the 

increased salinity affects the fish population on which the pelicans depend (it is also possible 

that an increase in salinity could affect the algae, which the flamingos eat). 

The levels of both Lakes Ziway and Abiyata have been reducing in the last decades, with 

especially a significant loss in the level and size of Lake Abiyata since 1985, as it is estimated 

that the level in Lake Abiyata has dropped by at least 5 meters compared to the 1970s level 

(Alemayehu et al, 2006; Hengsdijk & Jansen, 2006a). Although the exact reasons for the 

reduction in the level of both lakes are not yet certain, it is believed that the extraction of 

water from Lake Ziway and its associated rivers (both upstream and downstream) for 

irrigation and of the water from Lake Abiyata for the soda-ash factory are the main causes of 

this reduction (Alemayehu et al, 2006; Hengsdijk & Jansen, 2006a). 

In their study on water resources in the CRV, Hengsdijk & Jansen (2006a) concluded that 

water resources in the area were over-exploited and the main reason for this was water 

extraction for irrigation. Ayenew (2004) and Legesse et al (2005) also found that the recent 

development schemes, such as the pumping of water from the lake for the soda-ash factory 

(soda extraction) and the utilization of water from feeder rivers and Lake Ziway for irrigation 

had resulted in the rapid reduction in lake levels. 

The reduction in the level of Lake Ziway has been further aggravated by the diversion of 

water from its two main rivers, Ketar and Meki and Legesse et al (2005) state that there is a 

plan for a large scale diversion of the two rivers upstream for irrigation purposes. This would 

have significant impacts on the level of both Lakes Ziway and Abiyata. It is also believed that 

the over-irrigation of the land characterized by shallow groundwater levels may induce largescale 

soil salinization. This would have severe impacts on crop growth and could even lead to 

the closure of irrigation fields, as has been seen in the Awash basin. 

Due to the low water level in Lake Abiyata, the soda-ash factory had to stop functioning in 

2005. However, it appears that there now is a plan to pump water from the Lake Shala to the 

soda ash factory. Such a plan could lead to severe ecological impacts that could also affect 

the important bird population currently using both Lakes Shala and Abiyata. 


The Netherlands Embassy supports a Working group that has been formed to deal with the 

looming ecological collapse of (part of) the Central Rift Valley. This Working Group is 

looking at all aspects of the problems in the CRV sub-basin (looking at water resources, 

agriculture, floriculture and horticulture development, and the potential for eco-tourism, 

partially based on the Lake Abiyata-Shala National Park). 

36

The Working Group aims to halt the environmental degradation that is occurring in the area 

partially caused by the unsustainable extraction of water resources for inefficient irrigation 

systems and low quality soda ash production. For example, the state farms using irrigation are 

inefficient in their water use and are making a loss financially. Although privatization of 

these farms, will most likely lead to an increase in the efficiency of productive water use as 

well as improving the financial viability and the employment creation capacity of the 

enterprises, the Working Group has stated that expansion of the area used for intensive 

floriculture should also be subject to a rigorous EIA to prevent it leading to increased water 

stress in the CRV. Some of the small and medium scale commercial farms which use 

irrigation are also using inefficient open furrow and flood irrigation systems, and so the 

Working Group and a DGIS-NL funded programme of an American NGO (IDE) try to 

facilitate small scale farmers to switch to simple drip irrigation systems based on a treadle 

pump, while RNE-AA promotes more efficient irrigation systems among medium scale 

farmers. 

Because it is assumed that a more diversified economy can contribute to a healthier 

ecosystem and greater resilience to economic and ecological shocks, the CRV Working 

Group emphasises the diversification of livelihoods, with flower production being one option, 

be it under strict conditions related to water quantities used and to water quality in terms of 

affluents released into the environment. The development of eco-tourism will also be one of 

the key (action research) activities of the CRV Working group that RNE-AA will support via 

various channels (e.g. the Horn of Africa Regional Environment Centre and Network and the 

Ethiopia Wildlife and Natural History Society). 

For example, there is a plan to try to market this area via the Ring of Lakes Route concept, in 

a similar way to the “Ring of Kerry” in Ireland. It is believed that the tourism sector in the 

CRV is largely under-developed (Hengsdijk & Jansen, 2006a) but could become an important 

contributor to the local economy. There is also a concrete plan to launch a competition by the 

Addis Ababa University for all students in the country to design the best logo for the Central 

Rift Valley (as a tourist destination) and this logo would then be used to promote the Ring of 

Lakes Route at the Addis Ababa Bole International Airport by appearing on some of the 

luggage trolleys. In return for this free advertisement the students of the university would 

arrange the proper repair of broken trolleys that will be used, after making a proper analysis 

of the causes of the damage to the trolleys. 

There are currently six planned intervention areas/clusters of activities that the CRV Working 

Groups envisages: 

1. Ensure the stability of the CRV ecosystem by lowering the water stress situation by 

limiting water exploitation 

2. Protect biodiversity and develop sustainable eco-cultural tourism in the CRV, 

particularly by restructuring the park management at least in a core area of the Lake 

Abiyata-Shala National Park and via proper land use planning and management 

around Lake Langano and Lake Ziway, and involve the local population as much as 

possible to ensure that they benefit from biodiversity and tourism 

3. Create new employment opportunities in the CRV 

4. Restore biodiversity and vegetation and promote new high value chains of sustainable 

products, e.g. certain medicinal herbs. 

5. Promote alternative and efficient fuel sources and devices 

37

6. Bring livestock population in line with the carrying capacity of the land and water 

resources 


The CRV Working Group is still young and the activities that certain member organisations 

of the group will implement and support, partially with indirect assistance from RNE-AA, are 

still in the development phase and therefore no elaborate proposal/planning documents have 

yet been written. This is therefore a good opportunity to include climate risk management in 

activities that will be developed by CRV-Working Group member organisations. 


Although the direction of the change in rainfall pattern is still uncertain for the CRV, it is 

highly likely that temperatures will rise, leading to changed evapotranspiration patterns. In 

addition, climate change will most likely result in a change in rainfall patterns and thus affect 

the availability of water resources. The climatic changes combined with the existing 

pressures on water resources created by irrigation and soda ash production could result in a 

drastic change to the ecosystem/environment, and this could affect the livelihoods of the 

population around the lakes and any tourism potential. In the report written by Legesse et al 

(2005) they state that “According to site managers at the Abiyata Soda Ash Factory, inflow 

from Lake Ziway has diminished from the long-term annual average value of 210 to 60 

million cubic meters in 1994 and 1995 due to both abstraction and the low rainfall of these 

two years”. 

This statement well illustrates the problems that will occur in a hotter and perhaps also dryer 

climate and how climate change is likely to increase already existing pressures. The 

development of an integrated water resource management strategy in the CRV must take 

climate change into account in order to ensure the sustainable use of the water resources and 

the sustainable development of agricultural and irrigation schemes. For example, a reduction 

in the flow of rivers, such as the Bulbula River, would have significant impacts on the health 

and well-being of the communities that depend on such rivers as their primary source of 

freshwater. 

An increase in diseases and child mortality would likely result if these communities no longer 

have access to a freshwater source. An increase in flooding events would also be likely to 

affect the prevalence of diseases with an increase in vector-borne diseases and other diseases 

such as cholera likely (for example the recent floods in Somalia are leading to cholera 

outbreaks). Unsustainable levels of water extraction from Lake Abiyata coupled with a 

possible increase in the frequency of droughts would cause an increase in the salinity of the 

lake and this could negatively impact the flamingo and pelican populations that use this lake, 

and therefore reduce the tourism potential of the area. Dryer rivers and lower lake levels 

could also result in a change in the ecosystem of the CRV and this could also reduce the 

tourism potential of the area. Households that become dependent on tourism revenues would 

then become extremely vulnerable if tourism revenues declined. 

However, this project also has the potential to reduce the vulnerability of the communities in 

the area to climate change, as it aims to lower the water stress of the area and protect the 

natural resources upon which certain households depend. The creation of new employment 

opportunities and the emphasis on livelihood diversification are two activities that should 

enhance households’ resilience and decrease their vulnerability to climate variability and 

climate change. 

38


Climate risks to the country: Ethiopia is likely to experience higher temperatures and 

increased climate extremes, such as droughts and floods, even if the direction of rainfall 

change is not yet certain. The CRV is likely to experience changes in intra-annual rainfall 

distribution and an increase in climate extremes, such as droughts and floods. Droughts 

could have significant implications for current and future irrigation schemes in the CRV 

and for river flows and lake levels, as some downstream sections of the Bulbula River are 

already dry in the dry season because of water extraction for irrigation. Water resources 

are currently over exploited in the area so a decrease in rainfall would further affect this 

situation. An increase in extreme rainfall events could lead to both river floods and flash 

floods and also to a degradation of natural resources with the increased erosion of areas 

already vulnerable to erosion (the increase in population pressure has led to the clearing 

of forests and a change in the land use/cover in the region resulting in some areas being 

increasingly vulnerable to erosion). 

Climate risks to the project: There are no direct risks to the evolving programme of the 

CRV Working Group as a whole but some components and objectives of this programme 

are likely to be affected by climate change (as explained in earlier section). The CRV- 

Working Group aiming at ecosystem rehabilitation is likely to under-perform if climate 

risks are not properly incorporated into the design of projects. 

External climate risks affected by project: The activities of the CRV-Working Group 

have the potential to reduce some of the risks associated with climate change. For 

example a lowering of the water stress in the area and a diversification of livelihoods 

through creation of new employment options, should be beneficial actions in view of 

climate change. The promotion of alternative fuel sources is also a beneficial action in 

terms of climate change mitigation. However, some activities would benefit from the 

more explicit consideration and incorporation of climate risks. 

In conclusion, this preliminary risk screening process enables us to classify the Central Rift 

Valley Project as a CATEGORY ORANGE project due to the potential effects of climate 

change on some of its components. CRISTAL is applied to this project in order to carry out a 

more detailed screening. 

Climate Context 

The Central Rift Valley is characterized by arid and semi-arid lands with a mean annual 

precipitation around 620mm and a mean annual temperature around 25°C close to the lakes in 

the CRV (Legesse et al, 2004). The Lake Langano weather station suggests a mean annual 

rainfall of 500mm for Lake Langano while the weather station near Lake Ziway suggests that 

the average annual rainfall for Lake Ziway is 650mmm (Vallet Coulomb et al, 2001; 

Ayenew, 2004; Hengsdijk & Jansen, 2006a). 

Although there appears to be no clear trend in the rainfall characteristics in this region during 

the last 40 years (Ayenew, 2004; Alemayehu et al, 2006; Hengsdijk & Jansen, 2006a) 4 , this 

region experiences intra-annual rainfall variability and is affected by both floods and 

droughts. Although droughts and floods have affected this region, it is assumed that droughts 

are the main hazards in the region around the lakes. It is expected that in the Central Rift 

Valley droughts will result in crop and income losses for households, a depletion of their 

4 Such an analysis is currently being performed at the Wageningen University. 

39

grain reserves, weakened livestock and possibly livestock death and eventually household 

food insecurity. 

Droughts are also likely to result in a reduction of lake water levels and the drying up of 

rivers, especially the Bulbula River (with major consequences for the populations depending 

on this river as their primary source of freshwater supply), as the water resources from the 

rivers are already over-exploited for irrigation. Droughts could also lead to a reduction in the 

productivity of the grasslands, which are already considered to be overgrazed. 

Livelihood Context 

The Central Rift Valley is rich in natural resources, with the presence of wetlands, four main 

lakes (Lakes Ziway, Langano, Abiyata and Shala), numerous rivers, agricultural land, 

livestock, fish populations (particularly in Lake Ziway), endemic birds and other wildlife. In 

terms of physical resources, the Central Rift Valley appears more developed than the Kafa 

zone with many irrigation schemes, some mechanized agricultural equipment, a relatively 

high use of pesticides and fertilizers, horticultural and since 2005 also several floricultural 

enterprises in green houses, fishing companies, some tourism facilities, tar roads and a sodaash 

factory extracting water from Lake Abiyata. In terms of social and human resources there 

are slightly more NGOs, local CBOs and government institutions present in the CRV than in 

the Kafa Zone, while agricultural and tourism skills appear to have been developed to a 

certain extent in the CRV. 

Droughts will impact these resources in different ways, with the strongest impacts most likely 

on agricultural land and crop production, livestock, lake levels and river flows, and wildlife 

and fish populations. The soda-ash factory may also not be able to continue its production if 

droughts lead to significant reductions in the water level of Lake Abiyata (and Shala). 

Activity Profile 

There are several activities that will be implemented under the six clusters that the CRV 

Working Group identified, as described earlier. These activities take stock of available 

resources and current resource use and they contribute to the identification of policy options 

to improve resource management in the CRV (mainly by the Addis Ababa University (AAU) 

and Wageningen University & Research (WUR). Several activities also aim to promote 

tourism activities and employment creation in the area. It is expected that these activities will 

have a positive impact on the livelihood resources in the CRV (see Table 6-1), as they focus 

on improving both people’s livelihoods and the management of water and other natural 

resources in the area. These activities should lead to a more sustainable use of water 

resources and the protection of biodiversity. 

Table 6-1 illustrates not only the impacts that the multi-actor CRV programme will have on 

livelihood resources in the area, but also the impacts that droughts are likely to have on these 

resources and therefore the risk of under-performance of some components of the Dutch 

supported environmental governance programme in the CRV as initiated and implemented by 

various organisations participating in the CRV Working Group, supporting a balanced 

economic and ecological development vision for the area. 

Managing Climate Risks 

It is apparent from the review of this project that climate concerns are not yet fully integrated 

into activities of the CRV Working Group. Many of the activities would benefit from the 

integration of a climate component. 

40

For example, cluster 1 activities aim to increase the research on the water situation and to 

design a sustainable vision for water management in the area. For this vision to be sustainable 

in the long-term it must include climate change as an additional stress on top of the existing 

stresses that currently affect the water resources in this area. If climate change in terms of 

higher temperatures and possibly also decreasing rainfall is not taken into account then the 

amount of water extracted from the lakes and rivers might remain too high and this can have 

a negative impact on the communities dependent on the rivers as their main source of 

freshwater and on the area’s natural resources and wildlife. 

Table 6-1: Impact of CRV Working Group activities (positive, negative, neutral) and droughts 

(Scale 1 to 5, with 5 being maximum impact) on livelihood resources in the CRV. 

Livelihood Resources 


Resources 

Physical 

Financial 

Social 

Human 

Project 

Impact 

Drought 

Impact 

Lakes + 4 

Rivers + 4 

Wetlands + 4 

Agricultural land + 5 

Livestock + 4 

Fish + 3 

Wildlife + 3 

Agricultural equipment Neutral 1 

Irrigation equipment + 1 

Floricultural and horticultural enterprises Potentially + 3 

Fishing equipment Neutral 1 

Tourism facilities + 2 

Soda-ash factory Neutral 3 

Liquid assets + 4 

Loans and insurance Neutral 2 

Access to markets + 1 

NGOs Neutral 1 

CBOs Neutral 1 

Local governance institutions + 1 

Agricultural skills + 1 

Tourist industry skills + 1 

Water use scenarios/models should include climate change as an additional stressor in order 

to enable decision-makers to identify the more sustainable water use options 5 . Meso-level 

models could be developed to show the change in natural and water resources in the CRV 

under different climate and water use scenarios. These models could also be used to help 

identify the most appropriate strategy for the sustainable management of the (core area of the) 

Abiyata-Shala National Park and its buffer zones. 

For the planned water extraction from Lake Shala by the soda-ash factory there should not 

only be made but also an evaluation of the impacts of such a commercial project in the 

context of climate change. The biodiversity protection activities should include an activity 

which assesses the vegetation and animal species that are likely to be present in the CRV 

under future climate change in order to ensure that they do not try to protect resources that 

will not be adapted to future climate. The research into new agricultural products to develop 

new high value chains, also needs to incorporate climate change in order to ensure that the 

agricultural products it promotes will still be viable in the future under a climate with higher 

5 In fact, scientists at WUR (Wageningen University & Research) are currently trying to integrate existing 

climate data on the CRV in the water situation analysis, which WUR will present during the launch of HoA- 

REN in December in Addis Ababa 

41

temperatures and a changed intra-annual rainfall distribution, and therefore a possible 

increase in both drought and flood events. 

42

7. Nile Basin initiative (NBI) 

The Nile Basin Initiative was formally launched in 1999 with the aim of pursuing the 

sustainable development and management of the Nile waters. The Eastern Nile Subsidiary 

Action Programme (ENSAP) is an investment programme by the governments of Egypt, 

Ethiopia and Sudan under the umbrella of the Nile Basin Initiative. The aim of ENSAP is to 

achieve joint action on the ground to promote poverty alleviation, economic growth and the 

reversal of environmental degradation. 


ENSAP has several long-term objectives (NBI Website): 

1. Ensure efficient water management and optimal use of the resources through 

equitable utilization and no significant harm; 

2. Ensure cooperation and joint action between the Eastern Nile countries seeking winwin 

goals; and 

3. Target poverty eradication and promote economic integration 

This section reviews the projects currently being planned by the NBI Eastern Nile Technical 

Regional Office (NBI-ENTRO) as part of ENSAP (see Table 7-1). Although the Dutch 

government does not currently provide funding to all of these NBI-ENTRO projects, we will 

briefly review all projects in order to assess the climate risk to these projects. The Dutch 

government may then use this information if they wish to invest in these projects in the 

future. The ENSAP sub-projects, which are moving into the implementation mode are 

marked with an *. 

Currently RNE-AA works on an agreement, which includes financing a part time Baro- 

Akobo coordinator in 2007 for an initial three years. This, however, does not signify that the 

Dutch government will allocate funding for the Baro-Akobo project, at least not 

unconditionally, as the RNE-AA staff have mentioned their concern about the impacts that 

such a project could have on the downstream areas and especially on the Greater Boma Park 

Initiative, that will most probably also be supported under the Horn of Africa Regional 

Environment Programme of RNE-AA. In the framework of this programme, RNE-AA staff 

also expressed concerns around plans that are currently under discussion to drain some of the 

Sudd swamps in Southern Sudan, as they believe that this could lead to significant ecological 

impacts as well as to an increased production of methane, a significant GHG, which would be 

contrary to current global efforts on mitigation and the drive to reduce the emissions of 

GHGs. 

RNE-AA is also considering providing small funds to help co-finance certain costs of the 

NBI-national focal points in the 3 NBI ENSAP countries (Sudan, Ethiopia and Egypt). These 

national focal points are in the Ministries of Water of these countries. Due to budget 

constraints in the national ministries they often do not get sufficient money to cover the 

transport and other operational costs they have to make to contribute to NBI related activities. 

RNE-AA will therefore provide US$ 15,000 per year per country to remedy this situation. 

RNE-AA will provide NBI-ENTRO with approximately US$800,000 for a three-year period. 

Limited extra funding will most probably also be provided to enable the NBI national focal 

points to employ local consultants to help them with the analysis of some highly technical 

proposals they receive from NBI-ENTRO. These consultants will then most probably be 

linked to the Horn of Africa Regional Environment Centre and an extra US$10-15,000 per 

43

country per year will be provided via AAU to cover these consultancy costs under a 

framework agreement with NBI-ENTRO. 

It is also possible that RNE-AA will get involved in watershed management sub-projects of 

the NBI-ENTRO, in particular with the part of the project dealing with the Tekeze river in the 

North of Ethiopia. The Tekeze Basin in Northern Ethiopia may become a concentration area 

for the management of highlands and dry lowlands priority of the Horn of Africa Regional 

Environment Network and this might lead to Dutch involvement in the next 2 to 3 years, via 

HoA-REN member organisations and/or in cooperation with HoA-REN partner 

organisations. RNE-AA is also looking at being involved in the cross border Blue Nile Basin 

in 2 to 3 years if Lake Tana also becomes a concentration area for HoA-REN. 

Via the Nile Basin Trust Fund or via RNE-AA, the Dutch government may in future also 

support the micro-credit scheme of the environment programme under the NBI, for Ethiopia 

and Sudan. 


For each of the projects listed in Table 7-1, a summary of key preparation activities is 

provided. None of these, however, mention the need to take climate risks into account. 

Recently a technical meeting of NBI was hosted by the Environment and Water Department 

of the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs in The Hague to address the issue of climate 

change and climate variability. In preparation to this meeting it was realized that climate 

change was a generic topic which had come up since the inception of the NBI but which had 

as yet received little attention under NBI. In this meeting it was recognized that climate 

change was a serious issue but it was concluded that its importance for integrated water 

resources management was limited. Population growth, urbanization and the deterioration of 

groundwater levels were found to be the major threats to water resources and water 

availability per capita. 


While the above may be the major threats to water resources in the Nile Basin it is important 

to realize that climate change will act as an additional pressure on water resources and that it 

is a factor that cannot be ignored. In order to develop a sustainable policy on water resources 

management, it is vital that climate change be taken into account. A policy that does consider 

climate risks is likely to become maladaptive in the future and will most likely lead to the 

deterioration, and not the improvement, of water resources. However, at the meeting in the 

Hague (mentioned above) it was also recognized that a large number of local scientists 

involved in the seven NBI ENSAP sub-projects are working on issues of adaptation to 

climate variability and change and that this could provide an opportunity to build climate 

adaptation processes into the design of new NBI programmes. 


Climate risks to the country: As discussed above, this is a regional project. The climate 

of the Nile River Basin underlies all processes essential to the region’s communities – 

agricultural production, energy supply, public health, ecosystem services, tourism, social 

institutions, local, national and regional economies, and much more. A changing climate 

will fundamentally impact these sectors through its effect on the hydrologic cycle and the 

basic availability of water in the Nile Basin – its amount, quality, distribution, and form. 

Climate risks to the project: Climate promises to be a persistent environmental risk 

confronting the future development of the Basin. Indeed, complex and adverse climate- 

44

elated impacts affecting every sector of the Nile Basin States – including, in particular, 

the region’s water resources – now seem unavoidable. When coupled with other known 

pressures and threats to the Nile’s environmental resources, one can reasonably expect 

there to be potentially huge social and economic costs in the absence of suitable plans to 

cope and proactively adapt. 

External climate risks affected by project: At present, the NBI seeks to address historic 

environmental threats to the Nile Basin such as rapid population growth and persistent 

poverty. It also seeks to look beyond population and poverty to institutional, governance, 

awareness, information, and policy dimensions, which have been increasingly recognized 

as underlying causes of environmental threats. Each of these threats – while individually a 

45

challenge to cooperative, sustainable management of the Nile River Basin – is rendered 

significantly more acute when overlain by climatic risks. 

In conclusion, this preliminary risk screening process enables us to classify the activities of 

the Nile Basin Initiative-Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office as a CATEGORY RED 

project due to the potential effects of climate change on some of its components. Given the 

complexity of the project and its multiple dimensions, CRISTAL has not been applied. 

Rather, we propose a set of suggestions on how one might design a comprehensive climate 

risk management system to aid in the assessment of current and future NBI investment 

decisions. 


The overall goal of managing climatic risks would be to enable informed decision-making 

that can address climate variability and climate change-related challenges to the management 

of transboundary waters in the Nile River Basin, thereby strengthening the ability to achieve 

and sustain the NBI’s longer-term objectives. This would involve the introduction of a 

climate risk component to its activity profile. 

A climate change component would seek to implement a framework that can help 

mainstream climate risk concerns into future policy and investment decisions in the Nile 

Basin. This framework would integrate climate change concerns both temporally, providing 

sequential components to complement the NBI’s phased programmatic approach, and 

functionally, providing comprehensive sets of activities to support and fortify the Program’s 

five major components. 

The underlying theme of a climate risk management programme would be to strengthen 

human and institutional capacity to forge linkages between climate risk assessment and 

sustainable development of the Nile River Basin. Against this strategic backdrop, and within 

the larger NBI framework, the major elements could be as follows: 

Engagement and dialogue of NRB stakeholders concerning an integrated strategy for 

climate risk assessment in investment decisions; 

Synthesis and consolidation of existing, country-specific information about climate risks 

and local vulnerability into a Basin-wide knowledge framework; 

Involvement and participation of local communities in planning and evaluating projects 

and programs; 

Analytical tools and methods for mainstreaming climate risk management and promoting 

sustainable future NRB investments; 

Integrated capacity building for comprehensive integration of climate risk assessment and 

project redesign. 

Each of the above elements could combine analytical, participatory and policy oriented 

processes to identify decisions compatible with emerging regional climate change concerns. 

An important aim would be to identify and promote procedures, policies and actions that can 

help integrate new climate risk management activities into the existing NBI action 

framework. 

Some of the potential benefits of integrating climate change concerns into the existing NBI 

set of activities could be as follows: 

48

Integrating climate risk management concerns into the policy and investment decisionmaking 

framework for the Nile Basin; 

Supporting other priority transboundary activities through access to the climate 

knowledge and expert network established; 

Building Basin-wide awareness of sectors and communities which share common 

vulnerabilities and hence common need for – and access to – adaptive steps; 

Enhancing national programs in climate risk management (e.g., Enabling Activities, 

National Adaptation Programs of Action); 

Leveraging additional climate-based funding sources for future Nile Basin investments; 

and 

Increasing the long term sustainability of Nile Basin investments and projects. 

49

8. Bale integrated forest management/Bale Ecoregion Sustainable 

Management Programme 

The Bale Mountains are a range of mountains in the Oromia region in south-east Ethiopia, 

south of the Awash River. The Bale Mountains are the largest area of Afro-Alpine habitat on 

the African continent with over 4000km 2 at an altitude above 3000m. These mountains have 

high levels of biodiversity with the presence of endemic Ethiopian mammal species, such as 

the Mountain Nyala and the Ethiopian Wolf as well as high levels of endemism within the 

amphibian and reptile populations/groups. This region also contains large lakes which 

provide habitats for water birds, especially the migrating ducks from Europe. The wetlands 

and forests of the Bale Mountains are the source of major rivers which provide a significant 

proportion of the perennial water supply of approximately 12 million people in the lowlands 

of south-eastern Ethiopia, northern Kenya and Somalia. 

The Bale Mountains National Park protects about 2000km 2 of one of the most intact remnants 

of Ethiopia’s indigenous vegetation and has high levels of endemic animal and plant species 

and high biodiversity value. However, the park also contains grasslands and agricultural land 

and parts of the park are populated and experiencing increasing population pressure. 

The motivation behind the development of this integrated forest management project in the 

Bale Mountains was a widely held recognition by both the Ethiopian government and the 

Royal Netherlands Embassy in Addis Ababa that natural resources in the Bale region were 

being poorly managed and were being extracted unsustainably. Coupled with the importance 

of the region’s forest resources to downstream communities, it was felt that conservation 

action was imperative. 

Within the Bale Mountain projects there are a total of three actors: the Frankfurt Zoological 

Society which is involved in the protection of the Bale Mountain Park; DGIS which is 

involved in the protection of the buffer zone (part forest, part farmland) and GTZ which 

developed a participatory community-based forest management approach. Although DGIS 

tried to establish a partnership with GTZ this does not appear to have worked out. 

8.1. Aims/objectives of the project 

The Bale Ecoregion Sustainable Management project tries to build on past efforts to preserve 

biodiversity in the Bale Mountains while integrating the social and economic priorities of the 

communities that are dependent on the natural resources present in the region. This project 

focuses on principles of social ownership of natural resources and seeks to coordinate, rather 

than co-opt communities’ involvement in the management of the forest resources. 

One of the particularly appealing aspects of the project is its emphasis on non-trivial 

participation by the community. This is intended to develop a sense of ownership and provide 

representation to groups that would otherwise not have good representation in decisionmaking 

(e.g., women, youth, the poor). The participatory processes proposed should, if 

carried out properly, lead to engagement by community members on identifying realistic and 

achievable livelihood options using the Bale mountain natural resources. 

The major outputs of the project entail the co-development of sustainable resource plans with 

the community, including assorted regulatory, legal, and policy frameworks that are locally 

managed and coordinated. This project is part of the Horn of Africa Regional Environment 

Programme’s three integrated environmental priorities: the park and buffer zones priorities. 

51


Climate variability and climate change are only marginally referenced in the documents 

relating to the Bale project. Even so, they are not identified as risks to the project. 


This project should contribute to making local communities less vulnerable to climatic shocks 

because of its emphasis on diversifying the socio-economic base, sustainable extraction of 

natural resources, and community management under a biodiversity protection framework. 

However, it is important that the diverse activities that communities/households depend on do 

not all have the same climate sensitivity. The protection of forests will also help reduce the 

risk of soil erosion if floods become more frequent. The protection of forests has an added 

mitigation benefit because of the role of forests as carbon dioxide sinks. 




change is not yet certain. The Oromia region in which the Bale Mountains are found is 

regularly affected by major flooding incidents, such as the one in August 2006. Flash 

floods and river floods can occur in the Bale Mountain Zone. 

Climate risks to the project: There are no direct risks to the project as a whole, and only 

minor risks exist for some of the project components, such as the one related to the 

diversification and improvement of livelihoods. 

External climate risks affected by project: This project has the potential to reduce the 

vulnerability of communities to climate shocks by supporting the diversification of 

households’ livelihoods and by promoting the sustainable use of the natural resources 

which the communities depend on. 

In conclusion, this preliminary risk screening process enables us to classify the Bale 

Mountains project as a CATEGORY GREEN project. The CRISTAL screening approach is 

therefore not needed for this project. 

52

9. Horn of Africa Regional Environment Network (HoA-REN) and 

Regional Environment Centre (HoA-REC) 

The Addis Ababa University (AAU) is developing the Horn of Africa Regional Environment 

Network (HoA-REN), which is a network of universities, research institutions and civil 

society organisations (both NGOs and CBOs) in Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia 

and Kenya, that are contributing to the improvement of environmental governance in the 

region. The Horn of Africa Regional Environment Centre (HoA-REC) will be established by 

the Addis Ababa University, initially at the 9 th floor of a new building at the Faculty of 

Science campus but most probably in 2008 or 2009 within a 700ha Botanical Garden & 

Environmental Park at Gullele (now in the north-western outskirts of Addis Ababa but in 

future most probably quite centrally located in this rapidly growing city). 

9.1. Aims and objectives of the project 

HoA-REN intends to generate practice based and practice oriented region specific 

knowledge, practical environmental management curricula (both content wise and 

managerial, from a middle management point of view) and effective environmental 

awareness raising materials. HoA-REN intends to jointly support efforts to rehabilitate 

damaged ecosystems in the region and has identified three integrated management topics as 

priorities: management of lakes and wetlands; management of parks and buffer zones (plus 

wild life migratory routes or corridors); and management of highlands and dry lowlands. The 

network also intends to effectively promote the expansion of the production and use of 

renewable energy; Water supply, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH); new high value chains for 

sustainable products and the prevention of the pollution of water, air, soils and surroundings. 

The Addis Ababa University is also currently developing short courses in Environmental 

Science and Management, aiming to support people in middle management positions in 

environment-related jobs, via a distance education system. In a later stage these short courses 

will be modularised into a BSc Environmental Science & Management . 

The HoA-REC, which forms the core of the network, will ultimately be situated in the main 

park of Addis Ababa, that will include a botanical garden and various elements to raise 

environmental awareness, motivate students in environment related studies, offer recreational 

services to inhabitants of Addis and attract tourists. The HoA-REC will be built in a 

comprehensive eco-development which will include among others: flower, plant and tree 

nurseries; glass houses; a botanical garden of plants indigenous to the highlands of Ethiopia 

and some other parts of the Horn of Africa; a Menelik memorial eucalyptus forests; a forest 

sanctuary with indigenous trees and shrubs; weather, climate change and air pollution 

monitoring stations of the National Meteorological Agency and AAU; a natural history 

museum; and a set of various environmental technologies such as solar energy panels, biogas 

tanks and drip irrigation systems for organic gardens, partially in an eco-village where staff 

members of the park and the centre live but some houses serve as demonstration houses. At 

one of the waterfalls in the environmental park also a mini hydropower station will be 

installed for demonstration purposes. A consultancy wing specializing in environmental 

governance, combining the theoretical knowledge of academics with implementation 

expertise of NGO staff, might also be developed as a capacity building and income 

ingenerating activity of the centre. The weather station and renewable energy demonstration 

sites will be available to the public, also as an attempt to raise awareness amongst the public 

about climate change and climate issues. GTZ will participate in helping to set up the 

renewable energy demonstrations, particularly the small hydro-power installation and the 

solar panels. 

53

The Royal Netherlands Embassy in Addis Ababa (RNE-AA) is working closely with AAU in 

the creation of the Horn of Africa Regional Environment Network and Centre in the 

framework of a multi-annual development cooperation programme between the AAU and 

RNE-AA, which will run from 1st November 2006 to 30th October 2009. The RNE-AA for 

example will pay for selected specialist landscape architects that come from outside the 

country in the preparatory process for the Gullele Botanical Garden and Environmental Park 

where the HoA-REC will be constructed in future. Via NBI-ENTRO RNE-AA will also fund 

the production of two physical models of the Nile Basin, which school children will be able 

to visit, in order to raise the awareness among the population in Ethiopia that they live in the 

basin of the Nile. One of these models will be in the NBI-ENTRO offices and the other will 

be in the Horn of Africa Regional Environment Centre in Gullele. 

As part of the exploratory process of establishing the HoA-REN the AAU and RNE-AA 

compiled a long list of environmental civil society organizations, research institutions and 

universities and colleges that are dealing with (aspects of) environmental governance in the 

region and which may become part of the network. Missions were organised to visit these 

organisations and institutions in their respective countries and these travels were paid for by 

the RNE-AA. Based on the assessment of potential network members, the organisations and 

institutions that qualify as potential full members and some of the organisations and 

institutions considered as potential affiliates will be upgraded in terms of books, other 

environmental resource materials, office equipment, communication hard and software plus 

services and other (environmental) technical equipment. The HoA-REN will also work with 

partner organisations both from the region and from elsewhere. A HoA-REC website is under 

construction and the network will soon be launched via the first annual HoA-Regional 

Environment Meeting. This first seminar of HoA-REN will focus on management of 

wetlands and lakes in the Lake Naivasha area in Kenya, the Ethiopian CRV and the Southern 

Sudanese Sudd swamps. 


Climate change does not yet appear to be considered fully (the project is still in the 

development phase) in the planning and design of the HoA-REN and HoA-REC projects, in 

terms of the projects’ sensitivity to climate change. However, the Regional Environment 

Centre aims to raise the public’s awareness of the potential impacts of future climate change 

as well as the importance of renewable energy (and its importance in terms of climate change 

mitigation) and to improve the measurement of climate change data by establishing a 

weather, climate change and air pollution measurement station close to the HoA-REC and 

most probably region specific climate change risk management expertise will be built up in 

the HoA-REC consultancy wing. 


HoA-REN and HoA-REC are both fairly neutral in terms of climate change impacts. HoA- 

REC should actually prove beneficial in the context of climate change because of its 

emphasis on trying to raise awareness of climate change, improving measurement of baseline 

climate data and developing region specific climate change risk management expertise in its 

consultancy arm. HoA-REN, however, could become more explicitly involved with climate 

change by promoting specific research on climate change and adaptation to climate change 

and by ensuring that climate concerns are fully incorporated into its three integrated 

management topics. 

54


Climate risks to the country: The Horn of Africa is likely to experience increased 

climate extremes, such as droughts and floods, even if the direction of rainfall change is 

not yet certain. 

Climate risks to the project: There are no direct risks to the project as a whole, or to 

project components and the project can potentially contribute to better climate change 

adaptation and risk management. 

External climate risks affected by project: This project should have beneficial impacts 

in view of climate change due to its components on awareness raising, measurement of 

baseline climate data and building up of regional specific expertise in the field of climate 

change adaptation and risk management. 

In conclusion, this preliminary risk screening process enables us to classify the HoA-REN 

and HoA-REC projects as CATEGORY GREEN projects. The CRISTAL screening 

approach is therefore not needed for these projects, but specialised advice to use this project 

optimally to improve climate change adaptation and risk management and to strengthen 

climate mitigation (e.g. regarding the Sudd and by using the Clean Development Mechanism 

for more carbon sequestration) might be beneficial. 

55

10. Koka dam 

The Koka dam was constructed on the Awash River in the 1950s, approximately 81 km 

southeast of Addis Ababa (see Figure 10-1). It is important to note at the outset of this 

section that the Koka dam differs from the other projects considered in this report in the sense 

that it is an existing investment. Besides there are no concrete plans yet for the Netherlands 

Embassy in Addis Ababa to intervene with funding and as far as the current Embassy staff is 

aware, the construction of the Koka dam did not involve direct investment from the Dutch 

government. However, there have been past Dutch commercial investments (of HVA) in the 

vicinity of the dam in the form of sugar plantations and a sugar factory, that were nationalised 

in the 70s and that are still in existence, whereas HVA is currently advising the sugar 

company in installing a new management information system. 

For reasons described below, developments around the Koka Dam represent a significant 

potential threat to economic development in the Awash river basin that is fundamentally 

climate-related. As such, it represents a prototypical example of the climate risk-development 

nexus and given the urgency of measures to be taken to prevent an ecological disaster in the 

area, RNE-AA has motivated other members of the DAG Technical Working Group on 

Water to jointly look into both short and long term measures to save the area from severe 

flood damage, indicating that The Netherlands could perhaps mobilise some resources via the 

ORET-programme with Dutch companies, for instance providing 50% of financial resources 

when a Dutch company would be contracted to dredge the Koka Lake. 

Figure 10-1: Location of the Koka dam 


Koka was the first large scale dam in Ethiopia to create a reservoir for irrigation and to 

establish a Hydropower plant in the 1950s. The dam was not only built to provide water for 

irrigation schemes and for the production of electric energy, but also to provide flood 

protection to the upper and middle Awash areas. Until the construction of the Koka dam 

widespread flooding along the river was common. The dam was built with an initial capacity 

of 1.8 billion m 3 . 

57


It is not known to what extent climate was referenced in the project design documents that 

were developed over 50 year ago. What is known is that due to deteriorating performance of 

the dam over the years, climate concerns have become a clear driver for remedial action. 


It is estimated that the Koka reservoir has now lost more than 40% of its water holding 

capacity due to sedimentation. Today, the dam has an estimated remaining capacity of no 

more than about 1 billion m 3 , which makes it incapable of withholding a major flood 

(Achamyeleh, 2003). Since the Koka reservoir serves as the only impounding reservoir for 

Awash River flows, a reduced capacity increases the risk of flooding in downstream areas, as 

the reservoir will be unable to absorb incoming floods of significant magnitude. 

The cause of the excessive 

Box 10-1: Extensive damage to downstream irrigated areas 

sedimentation is the due to Koka dam overflow 

uncontrolled deforestation 

In August 2006, water flow entering the Koka Dam reservoir 

and expansion of farmlands reached dangerously high flow levels of about 1,200 m 3 per 

in upstream areas. This has second. To ease pressure on the dam, 300m 3 per second of 

led to soil erosion and land water was released, leading to extensive damages to irrigated 

degradation which has in turn flower farms immediately downstream. Despite preparations in 

the form of sand bag levies, large areas owned by Summit Agro 

led to increased sediment 

Plc for flower farming were submerged by the water released 

load in the Awash River. 

from the dam. Summit is now seeking US$1.5 million in 

Most of the sediment load reparations from its insurer. Without the extreme sedimentation 

brought in by the Awash of the Koka Lake, it is unlikely that there would have been a 

river is deposited in the Koka need for the water release. 

reservoir (Achamyeleh, Source: http://www.businessinafrica.net/news/east_africa/281981.htm 

2003). The reduced capacity 

of the Koka reservoir has created the problem of increased flooding risk downstream which 

has recently led to severe economic losses (see Box 10-1). It can also lead to a problem of 

shortage of water supply for irrigation and power generation. Downstream of the dam there 

are three hydroelectric power plants and close to 70,000ha of irrigated land which depend on 

water supply from the reservoir. In addition a major flood can cause serious damage to 

settlements down stream. 


Climate risks to the country: Ethiopia is likely to continue to experience increased 

climate extremes such as the floods that occurred in 2006. 

Climate risks to the project: There are direct risks to downstream areas of the Koka dam 

due to the future need to release flows when the inflow rate to the reservoir is too high. 

Given the excessive sedimentation of the dam and the prospects for a worsening situation, 

this risk will increase over time in the absence of significant remedial action. There is 

even a serious risk that the dam will break. 

External climate risks affected by project: A possible project should have beneficial 

impacts in view of climate change due to its components on awareness raising, 

measurement of baseline climate data and practical short term and long term adaptation 

and climate change measures. 

In conclusion, this preliminary risk screening process enables us to classify the Koka Dam 

project as a CATEGORY RED project. Given the unavailability of documents for the 

58

original investment project, CRISTAL has not been applied. Rather, we propose a set of 

suggestions on how one might design a comprehensive climate risk management system to 

aid in the assessment of potential remediation decisions. 


The severity of sedimentation on the life of the reservoir was underestimated by the designers 

of the dam, as sufficient allowance for dead storage to accommodate silt deposition was not 

provided (Achamyeleh, 2003). The silting up of this dam has now left it at high risk of 

breaking and therefore flooding the settlements and fields that are downstream. In a sense, the 

Koka Dam is no different to many other large dams constructed in Africa in the last century 

that have been found to be rapidly filling with sediments, sometimes after only a few years. 

We suggest that the effective management of climatic risks to the Koka Dam should be 

considered at three temporal levels – near-, mid-, and long-term - as described below. 

Clearly, remedial action in the near-term is urgently needed to avert loss of lives and damages 

similar to those that occurred in 2006 in Dire Dawa and close to the Koka Dam. 

Some time ago the Netherlands Embassy in Addis Ababa commissioned a study to assess the 

option of dredging the lake. However, this option turned out to be more expensive than 

constructing a new dam behind the existing Koka Dam. 

Recently the African Development Bank started to study the Awash Basin and the 

construction of a second dam will most probably be considered as an option to reduce the risk 

of severe floods down stream. However, it is important to note that this does not address the 

critical short term need of protecting downstream communities and industries because the 

time required to conduct a feasibility analysis, develop an engineering design for the new 

dam, and complete construction will take a considerable period time – likely several years in 

which flooding risks are not mitigated whatsoever. 

From our review of informal documents available at the Dutch embassy in Addis Ababa, it 

was clear that there have been three solutions identified to deal with a combination of shortand 

long-term issues related to the Koka Dam. These include a) raising the dam, b) dredging 

of the lake behind the dam and c) constructing a second dam downstream to help reduce the 

water levels in the current dam. The general conclusion was that the costs associated with 

these options are all too high relative to the economic damages they would avoid. That this 

conclusion was reached is surprising given that flash flood through Nazareth or Dire Dawa 

and all irrigation infrastructure of the sugar company would cause considerable economic 

damage. In our view, it is clear that a more thorough analysis should be undertaken to assess 

the costs and benefits of various options to dealing with the short- and long-term 

consequences of failure of the Koka Dam. The terms of reference for such an analysis should 

be set up to not only address damages to industrial and commercial resources but to natural 

resources as well. The conclusions from the analysis should be integrated into ongoing policy 

discussions regarding the fate of the Koka Dam and the potential role of donor assistance. 

Quite apart from such a study, which we consider there to be an urgent need, we would 

recommend that other types of action be considered right away and in parallel with any such 

study. In our view, a set of adaptive measures should be implemented right away to address 

short-, mid-, and long-term challenges to protect resources downstream of the Koka Dam. In 

the near-term, these measures would involve the following: 

Development of early warning systems. This would involve the strengthening of capacity 

within the Ethiopian meteorological agency for the monitoring and forecasting of flood 

59

events, as well as processing and disseminating clear warnings to the dam operator and 

the downstream population. 

Better coordination protocols. This would involve closer cooperation between the 

meteorology agency, the dam operator, and downstream communities and enterprises. 

This would involve providing notice of impending water releases allowing precautionary 

measures to be undertaken by downstream water users in sufficient time (e.g., moving 

valuable merchandise to protected areas) 

Take protective measures downstream. This would involve the construction of such 

protective measures as dikes surrounding industrial facilities (e.g., factories) and irrigated 

areas, as is already happening (see Box 10-2), or in the development of flood insurance 

policies. These represent a form of adaptation based on the assumption that climate risks 

will not be able to ever be 

fully managed 

Koka Dam. 

at the 

Action in the mid-term 

should also be undertaken. 

This would involve 

improvements in the 

environmental conditions of 

the upper catchments, as 

these are essential for the 

reservoir to have a longer 

life. Specifically, an 

integrated, holistic approach 

Box 10-2: Koka dam overflows and precautionary 

measures 

Severe flooding around the Koka Dam also occurred in 1996, 

when it was deemed necessary to release 600m 3 per second 

(or double the release level of 2006). This caused serious 

damage at the Wonji Sugar factory downstream, which is 

located near to the Summit flower farm described in Box 10-1. 

As a result of these 1996 losses, the factory undertook 

precautionary measures and during the floods of 2006, it 

suffered no economic damages from the release of water as it 

had transported sugar and other items to Nazareth (Adama) at 

a cost of around $100 000. 

Source: http://www.businessinafrica.net/news/east_africa/281981.htm 

to watershed management is needed to ensure the long-term viability of this reservoir. 

Programmes of reforestation, prevention of soil erosion and improvement of farming methods 

are amongst the essential activities that need to be carried out in the upper catchment areas 

(Achamyeleh, 2003). In the absence of such measures, the dam will continue to experience 

unacceptable sedimentation, no matter how well or often it is dredged. 

Action in the long-term should also be undertaken. This would involve the convening of a 

policy process to develop Ethiopia-specific guidelines for predicting and minimizing 

sedimentation in its large dams. The guidelines should develop or adapt methods for 

estimating future sedimentation rates and water yield reductions in Ethiopian dams that are 

subject to excessive sedimentation. Long-term action should also involve a technical research 

component to estimate the potential for catchment conservation, monitor dams, and upgrade 

knowledge about technologies to reduce dam sedimentation rates. 

60

11. Greater Boma Park Initiative 

The Boma Park is a national park situated in Southern Sudan. A survey was undertaken in the 

late 1970s and early 1980s and established a high level of biodiversity in this park. While one 

million white-eared kobs were counted during that period, the survey also followed the 

migration of the tiang and counted upwards of 350,000 tiang in the Jonglei swamps. These 

tiang were accompanied in their migration by some 65,000 mongalla gazelle, 32,000 Nile 

lechwe, 33,000 reedbuck, 10,000 buffalos, almost 4,000 elephants, 6,000 giraffes, 12,000 

white-eared kob, 4,000 hippos and 9,000 waterbuck. Some of the gazelles migrate from the 

Sudd in Sudan through the Gambella Park in Ethiopia to parts of northern Kenya. 

However, there have been major declines in nearly all large mammal species compared to the 

1980s levels with for example an estimated 80% decline in the population of the white-eared 

kobs from one million in 1984 to 180,000 in 2001. The white-eared kob and gravis zebra, as 

well as other indigenous animals, are believed to be currently threatened with extinction. 

Recent surveys also suggest that white-eared kob and elephant migrations have been 

shortened in relation to increasing hunting pressures and the increased use of some previously 

little used areas of the Park. It is also thought that droughts have increased pressure on 

wildlife in the park. Nevertheless, it is believed that important populations of wildlife remain 

and have significant potential to recover. An assessment of wildlife numbers and the 

rehabilitation of traditional migration movement corridors in and outside the Park could be 

important in ensuring the conservation of the Boma ecosystem. 

There are also major human factors at play in the Boma area. The food security status of the 

populations in this area has deteriorated, partially due to drought and this has led to conflicts. 

The populations in this area are also overly-dependent on natural resources for their 

livelihoods. The unsustainable exploitation of wildlife and other natural resources are a direct 

threat to the traditional livelihoods of local people and sustainable development. 


The idea behind the Greater Boma Park Initiative is to create a cross-border nature 

conservation area with corridors connecting major existing parks in Sudan, Ethiopia and 

Kenya. This initiative would connect the Boma Park and possibly the Sudd area in southern 

Sudan to the Gambella and Omo Parks in Ethiopia and possibly as well to parts of northern 

Kenya. This Initiative could also provide a first step towards a more extensive ecological 

network through the establishment of biodiversity corridors throughout the region and 

extending into Uganda and Tanzania. This Greater Boma Park Initiative could also be part of 

the Horn of Africa Regional Environment Programme by providing seed funding to formulate 

projects and it could fit into an action research trajectory under the “management of parks 

and buffer zones” topic of the Addis Ababa University initiated HoA-REN. 

During a working visit to Juba the Regional First Secretary of Embassy Environment and 

Water of RNE-AA has been requested by the Director Wild Lefe in the Ministry of 

Environment & Tourism, to facilitate the formation of a consortium around the protection and 

management of the Boma Park. Actors involved in this initiative are currently the Wildlife 

Conservation Society (a US NGO that is actually at the origin of this process by launching 

the Boma Park Initiative project which aims to establish a protected area network in southern 

Sudan) and African Parks Foundation (APF) (a Netherlands based NGO). These actors are 

primarily conservation oriented but RNE-AA wishes to ensure that the interests of people 

living in and around the park are also taken into account from the beginning. Therefore RNE- 

AA approached SNV-Kenya/Sudan and the African Conservation Centre (ACC) and WWF- 

61

Eastern Africa in Nairobi to join forces with WCS and APF. All three organisations are 

interested to participate in a Greater Boma Park Initiative, contributing to a multi-actor and 

multi-donor initiative for the development of a proper co-management system for a cross 

border park. Besides, also ZOA-Ethiopia, a Dutch refugee care organisation that is also 

funded through RNE-AA working in refugee camps near Gambella Park and elsewhere in 

Ethiopia, has been asked by REW to cooperate with organisations involved in the greater 

Boma Park where possible. 

RNE-AA would like the Greater Boma Park Initiative to work at the cross-roads of 

ecosystem/wildlife conservation, human rights protection and livelihood enhancement. This 

initiative would focus on environmental governance aspects, such as land use planning and 

zoning, and could help prevent and solve conflicts around access to natural resources. This 

initiative would, therefore, have both environmental and social benefits, as the combination 

of sound wildlife management and community-based natural resource approaches and 

protected area management will help improve food security in the area and the retention of 

conservation benefits by the local communities. The development of a protected area network 

can lead to the creation of a range of employment opportunities for the local communities 

living in the proximity of the protected areas. 

The RNE-AA is, however, concerned that one of the NBI-ENTRO projects (the Baro-Akobo 

project) will negatively affect this Greater Boma Park Initiative and have therefore asked the 

NBI to take this initiative into consideration. The Gambella Park is part of the Baro-Akobo 

river basin, contributing to the Nile, while the Sudd is an important component in the work of 

the Khartoum-based NBI Shared Vision Programme dealing with environmental issues. The 

Baro-Akobo project of NBI-ENTRO involves plans to build a hydro-power plant and 

irrigation systems on the Baro and Akobo rivers and these could create problems for 

downstream areas through changes in the flood plains and grazing areas and this would affect 

the Park’s ecosystem. The development of the hydro-power installation and irrigation 

systems is likely to decrease water availability in the park. Another concern for the RNE-AA 

is the risk that climate change may pose on the park’s water resources, especially if 

predictions are for a hotter and dryer climate. The combination of climate change and the 

construction of the above described installations could significantly alter the park’s 

ecosystem. 


This Initiative is still very much at the beginning of its development phase and no proposal 

document has yet been developed. This is, therefore, an opportunity to integrate climate 

change and climate risk management into the development and design of this project. 


The impact that drought has already had on the wildlife of the Boma Park and on the food 

security status of the populations living in and around that park underlines the importance of 

integrating climate concerns into the design of this initiative. However, from a conservation 

perspective, the creation of a cross-border park with migration corridors for wildlife will help 

to negate the possible negative impacts of climate change, as it enables the animals to move 

freely between the different areas of the park and will therefore facilitate their access to food 

and water resources. 

62


Climate risks to the country: The Horn of Africa is likely to experience increased 

climate extremes, such as droughts and floods, even if the direction of rainfall change is 

not yet certain. 

Climate risks to the project: There are no direct risks to the project but some 

components may be affected (depending on the emphasis placed on the livelihood 

component). Due to the cross-border nature of the park and the creation of migration 

corridors the conservation side of this project should not be at great risk of climate 

change. Even if climate change results in dryer climate, animal species will be able to 

migrate from one area of the park to another and should therefore find the required water 

and food resources. Individual areas in the park may change and may lose value in terms 

of biodiversity but the park as a whole should not be overly affected by climate change. 

The conservation goals of this project are more likely to be negatively affected by some 

of the planned NBI-ENTRO projects than by climate change. The livelihood component 

of this project is, however, likely to be at risk of climate change, as droughts will reduce 

the food security of the communities. Droughts would result in reduced crop productions, 

income loss and food insecurity. Water resources would also be affected and may lead to 

communities facing water shortages, which would increase the risk of illness and child 

mortality. 

External climate risks affected by project: The cross-border nature of this initiative will 

help reduce the sensitivity of natural resources and wildlife animals to climate change (as 

stated above). This project would also contribute towards mitigation efforts because it 

would lead to the protection of woodlands and forests, which act as carbon dioxide sinks. 

It is important, however, that the livelihood component of this project does not lead to the 

settlement of communities in drought-prone areas, as this would increase the vulnerability 

of these communities. 

In conclusion, this preliminary risk screening process enables us to classify the Greater Boma 

Park Initiative as a CATEGORY GREEN project. The CRISTAL screening approach is 

therefore not needed for this project. 

It is important to note that this assessment is based on the assumption that the conservation 

aspect of this project will be its main component (project is still under development). 

However, if the livelihood enhancement and human rights protection component becomes a 

strong component in this project then a re-evaluation will need to be done, as the 

susceptibility of the livelihood component to climate risks would change this project to a 

CATEGORY ORANGE project, in which case a more detailed screening process following 

the CRISTAL methodology would need to be applied. 

63

12. Global Environment Facility Small Grants Programme 

The Ethiopian government currently follows a policy to relocate people who suffer from 

environmental degradation or who need to move in order to save damaged ecosystems. The 

new national Poverty Reduction Strategy Programme the “Plan for Accelerated and Sustained 

Development to End Poverty” (PASDEP) has identified the need to mitigate the social and 

environmental risks of these resettlement programmes. This need has been recognized as a 

national priority in the PASDEP programme. These new settlement areas can be fragile and 

require special attention in terms of managing the environment in a sustainable way right 

from the beginning of the resettlement process. The people being moved to these areas also 

need to be given the tools and opportunities necessary to adapt to the changes in their 

environment. 

The Global Environment Facility (GEF) Small Grants Programme (SGP) can play a key role 

in helping to mitigate the social and environmental risks of the relocation programme at the 

grassroots level as well as in helping communities adapt to a changing environment. 

PASDEP has also identified biodiversity conservation and land degradation as two of the key 

focal areas for the national priorities which seek to address environmental threats and 

challenges. These two focal areas are in line with GEF’s five focal areas. 

GEF SGP Ethiopia aims to provide financial and technical support to community-led projects 

that conserve and restore the environment while simultaneously alleviating poverty. The SGP 

provides grants of up to US$50,000 to NGOs and CBOs to support initiatives developed at 

the grassroots level. 

GEF SGP Ethiopia focuses on both areas to which people have been relocated by the 

government of Ethiopia and in which Internally Displaced People (IDPs) are living, as these 

areas are the most at risk of environmental degradation, conflicts over resources and misuse 

of resources. The communities living in these areas need to be given appropriate funding in 

order to reduce the risks of environmental degradation and conflict and build sustainable 

livelihoods. 

GEF SGP has identified three main environmental challenges for Ethiopia: land degradation, 

loss of biodiversity and climate change (both mitigation and adaptation aspects). GEF SGP 

will therefore allocate funds to projects that address at least two of these challenges and that 

deal with poverty alleviation and community empowerment. 


In the areas in which it operates the GEF Small Grants Programme aims to: increase species 

and habitat conservation; enhance / maintain land quality; mitigate climate change; increase 

options for diversified sustainable livelihoods for local populations; and increase the 

participation of communities in regional and national government policy-making. 

The overarching goals, linked to the poverty reduction objective, of this GEF SGP 

programme are: 

• Increasing diversified sustainable livelihood options for local populations in the target 

communities 

• Increasing participation of communities in regional and national government policymaking 

65

In its first phase the GEF SGP will allocate 70% of its resources to projects focusing on the 

resettlement and IDP areas and 30% on projects that come up with innovative approaches to 

environmental and natural resources management. 

This GEF SGP programme fits under the Horn of Africa Regional Environment Programme 

initiated by the Government of the Netherlands, which aims to improve environmental 

governance in selected countries in the Horn Africa region. The Government of the 

Netherlands will support the activities developed in Ethiopia under the Small Grants 

Programme with a budget of US$450,000 for three years (2006-2008 inclusive). This support 

will add to current GEF funding for the SGP which is currently envisaged at US$150,000 in 

2006 and US$250,000 in 2007 and 2008. 


Climate, in terms of climate risks to achieving the objectives of the programme are not 

referenced in the documents. The mitigation of climate change is mentioned as one of the 

three environmental challenges faced by Ethiopia and projects that address this will be 

funded by GEF through this programme. Adaptation to climate change is not mentioned in 

the country programme document, but after discussions between REW and GEF SGP it has 

been agreed that Dutch funding will be used for both mitigation and adaptation, because 

GEF-SGP agreed that funding community-level adaptation projects would help the 

sustainable development of these communities. 

However, apart from being a separate theme, climate change issues should also be 

incorporated into the other priorities in order to ensure the long-term sustainability of the 

projects. The specific projects that will be funded under this programme do not appear to 

have been developed yet, and could, therefore, still be designed to incorporate climate 

concerns. Many of the concerns that this programme is trying to address are linked to climate 

variability and addressing and tackling these links explicitly would improve the outputs of the 

projects. 


The focus of this programme is to fund activities that will lead to the conservation of natural 

resources, the enhancement of land quality, reduced soil erosion, improved cultural practices 

regarding land and water use and management, reduced over-grazing, and the enhancement 

of livelihoods. These are all activities that will help increase communities’ resilience to 

climate variability and change, as they will help maintain and improve the natural resource 

base upon which the communities depend (e.g. grazing land for livestock, forest products for 

fuel and income, etc…) and increase their options in terms of income-generating activities. 

Although the diversification of livelihoods is in general beneficial for individuals and 

households, the different activities promoted must not all have the same climate sensitivities 

(they must not all be affected in the same way by a drought or flood). It is also important for 

households to be able to specialize in high income earning activities, as recent livelihoods 

research has shown that while livelihood diversification can be beneficial, individual 

specialization within a context of overall household diversification appeared to be a better 

strategy than the diversification of strategies at both individual and household levels. 

However, some of the general objectives of this programme are at risk of under-performing if 

climate change is not taken into account, although this will depend on the exact projects and 

activities implemented. The conservation aim of the GEF SGP needs to take climate 

variability and change into account as species shift in response to changes in the climate and 

the lack of recognition of this dynamism could ultimately lead to the failure to achieve this 

66

objective. Conservation areas that are kept as “islands” and not connected to other 

conservation areas through corridors are highly vulnerable to climate change if climate 

change results in a climate to which the species protected in this “island” conservation area 

are not adapted to. 




change is not yet certain. 

Climate risks to the project: There are no direct risks to the programme as a whole, but 

some of its components may be affected by climate change and these could require a 

climate risk assessment. The components concerning livelihood diversification, land and 

water use and management, conservation, land quality and soil erosion reduction could all 

benefit from an explicit consideration and integration of climate risks into the 

programme. There is a potential risk of under-performance of the programme but the risk 

will depend on the exact projects implemented under the GEF SGP. 

External climate risks affected by project: Some of the components of this programme 

should have positive effects on external vulnerability but these would be enhanced if 

climate risks were explicitly incorporated. 

In conclusion, the overall GEF SGP programme is classified as a CATEGORY ORANGE 

programme and the projects implemented as part of GEF SGP would benefit from the 

application of CRISTAL. However, as the modalities of the specific projects have not yet 

been developed it is premature to apply CRISTAL as a detailed screening tool. Nevertheless 

once the specific project locations and characteristics are developed it would be to their 

advantage to apply the CRISTAL screening approach. 

67

13. Conclusions and Recommendations 

In general, the results of our assessment indicate that there is a need to improve the 

information base about current and future climate risks for the different regions in Ethiopia 

and moreover that such knowledge needs to be addressed at the initial stages of project 

design. It is also evident that climate variability and climate change are not considered in the 

design of projects as these are rarely discussed in the project documents reviewed. Without 

sufficient knowledge about current climate and climate variability it will not be possible to 

incorporate climate risks into project design. 

Specifically, our review found that certain elements of the project portfolio in Ethiopia are 

highly compatible with the goals of climate risk management. On the other hand, there are 

certain projects whose sustainability would be enhanced through an explicit integration of a 

climate risk mitigation component. Our conclusions about the risk category and climate risk 

mitigation options for the eight projects reviewed are summarized in Table 13-1. 

The results of our assessment lead us to offer a number of recommendations regarding future 

potential efforts by the embassy in Addis Ababa to integrate climate risks in its development 

portfolio. These recommendations are briefly summarized below. 

Develop a Horn of Africa climate risk knowledge network. A core team of experts and 

other participants could be recruited from among the countries in the Horn of Africa. This 

activity would focus on implementing arrangements to facilitate networking, 

communication and early warning among this group, and assembling a set of expert task 

forces for key activities. A strong basis already exists for such action through the ongoing 

Horn of Africa Regional Environment Network (HoA-REN) and Regional Environment 

Centre projects. 

Initiate a capacity-strengthening strategy. A systematic training program should be 

developed to orient staff and country stakeholders to the specific objectives and elements 

of a coordinated climate risk management strategy. By developing human and 

institutional capacity at a range of scales (community-based organization, national NGO, 

university department, government agency, etc.) to respond to climate risk issues at 

various levels of operation (administrative levels, sectors, disciplines, etc.) the program 

could help to enable climate risk integration, as well as the long-term sustainability and 

support of embassy activities 

Synthesize climate risk vulnerability knowledge. Much has already been published or is in 

progress regarding vulnerability of communities, sectors, and ecosystems in Ethiopia (in 

e.g., national reports on climate change, biodiversity, desertification, poverty, food 

security, etc.). In addition, much more could be learned from the actual experiences of 

vulnerable people, communities and sectors, through structured consultations about 

mechanisms to cope with current climatic extremes. This activity could undertake both a 

technical assessment and a consultative process to extract themes and lessons that are 

relevant to climate risk management, and are common to Ethiopia and the other Horn of 

Africa countries; 

Develop a decision support tool for future investments. A decision support tool (i.e., 

software and databases) could help government, the private sector, citizen groups, NGOs, 

and other groups access regional climate risk-related information needed for more 

effective participation in evaluating investment decisions. This activity could be at the 

centre of a climate risk management programme in Ethiopia. This activity would focus on 

the codification of the 2-stage risk assessment process applied in this study into a user- 

69

friendly and menu-driven software package that helps assess the climate risk implications 

of all DGIS-supported investment decisions. 

Finally, integrating climate risks into the project design process will help DGIS to achieve 

their performance potential. Ultimately, this will serve to promote DGIS priorities and 

targets. The robustness of projects that address climate variability and climate change should 

in the long-term contribute to environmental sustainability and a decrease in the poverty of 

households and communities in Ethiopia. 

Table 13-1: Risk Category of the DGIS Projects reviewed 

Risk 

DGIS Projects 

Category Climate risk management options 

capacity strengthening on climate risk management; 

Kafa Development 

early warning systems; 

ORANGE 

Programme 

strengthening of health delivery services; 

database development 

develop a sustainable water management scheme; 

Central Rift Valley Project ORANGE apply modelling to identify sustainable water strategies; 

promote biodiversity; 

NBI sub-projects 

RED 

Engagement and dialogue of NRB stakeholders 

concerning and integrated strategy for climate risk 

assessment in investment decisions; 

Synthesis and consolidation of existing, country-specific 

information about climate risks and local vulnerability into 

a Basin-wide knowledge framework; 

Involvement and participation of local communities in 

planning and evaluating projects and programs; 

Analytical tools and methods for mainstreaming climate 

risk management and promoting sustainable future NRB 

investments; 

Integrated capacity building for comprehensive 

integration of climate risk assessment and project 

redesign. 

Bale Ecoregion 

sustainable management 

programme 

GREEN No additional action proposed. 

HoA-REN and HoA-REC GREEN No additional action proposed. 

Koka Dam 

Greater Boma Park 

Initiative 

GEF SGP 

RED 

GREEN 

ORANGE 

Near-term 

Development of early warning systems. 

Better coordination protocols between the meteorology 

agency, the dam operator, and downstream users 

Take protective measures downstream 

Mid-term 

Development of integrated, holistic approach to 

watershed management 

Long-term 

policy process to develop Ethiopia-specific guidelines for 

predicting and minimizing sedimentation in its large dams 

No additional action proposed. 

Apply the CRISTAL screening tool upon receipt of 

additional information. 

70

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73

Annex A: DGIS Climate Risk Project Terms of Reference for Consultants 

Background 

The climate is changing as a result of human activities. It may take many decades before all 

uncertainty can be ruled out, but in the mean time it appears that climate change is already 

intensifying existing problems: droughts in Southern Africa; forest fires in Southern Europe; 

water management difficulties in the Netherlands; floods in China; cyclones in the Gulf of 

Mexico; salinization of coastal areas and groundwater in Bangladesh and the spread of 

malaria to new areas of Africa, to name but a few examples that have appeared recently in the 

media. 

These impacts of climate change lead not only to loss of life and capital but also degrade 

ecosystems and natural resources, weakening the foundations of economic growth and 

poverty alleviation. Wealthy countries can largely cope with these impacts, but developing 

countries lack this ability. Moreover, the situation is unjust: climate change is mainly caused 

by greenhouse gas emissions from industrialized countries and not by, for example, Burkina 

or Bangladesh. Nevertheless, these and other developing countries are facing the negative 

consequences. 

The Environment and Water Department at the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs 

(DGIS-DMW) has decided to increase attention to this problem. 

On the one hand, this will mean that within the international negotiations on the United 

Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol, DGIS-DMW 

will focus on adaptation to climate change. Where relevant, interventions will also be made 

in other fora, in particular the GEF, OECD and the World Bank (as part of the follow-up to 

the G8 climate action plan). 

On the other hand, DGIS-DMW is also alarmed by the risk that climate change poses to the 

poverty reduction targets supported by the Netherlands bilateral development programme, 

notably in the 36 partner countries. 

The Netherlands bilateral development programme is situated in countries and sectors that are 

already vulnerable to normal climate variability and extreme weather events. At the same 

time, a large share of the impacts of climate change will materialize through further changes 

in such variability and extremes. Hence, the best strategy to reduce the rising risks of climate 

change is to improve general climate risk management: the way all climate-related risks, 

particularly including current variability and extremes, but also projected changes in average 

conditions and projected changes in variability and extremes, are being managed. 

These climate risks may include: 

Direct threats (e.g. infrastructure affected by extreme weather events); 

Under-performance (e.g. irrigation investments and agriculture programmes that that fail 

to deliver the malnutrition reductions they were expected to generate); 

Mal-adaptation: development that creates vulnerabilities (e.g. infrastructure development 

triggering settlements in vulnerable areas or affecting the resilience of natural resources). 

In addition, there is the risk of missing opportunities that may arise from climate change and 

could be captured if factored in. 

75

An important element of DGIS’ approach to climate risk management is to raise awareness, 

in partner countries and within DGIS, of the rising climate risks. In addition, it will be 

important to increase knowledge and understanding of relevant tools and methods to manage 

climate risk, and to quickly gain practical experience with the range of policies and measures 

that are needed to protect vulnerable sectors. 

Aim 

With the current project, DGIS wants to gain experience on how to integrate climate risk 

management into its bilateral development programme. 

To this end, DGIS is undertaking assessments on climate risk management in three partner 

countries: Bangladesh, Bolivia, and Ethiopia. The assessments should provide practical 

examples of (i) how climate change (including changes in variability and extremes) presents 

significant risk to projects, programmes, sector support and national policies and plans 

supported by DGIS, and (ii) how climate risk management could be improved. 

The results will be used to raise awareness on how to enhance climate risk management, 

within DGIS as well as among partner countries and other partners. The consultants 

undertaking the assessments should produce a rigorous analysis, but at the same a convincing 

story. The approach should be similar to investigative journalism, presenting convincing 

evidence by zooming in on relevant examples. 

It is important to mention that the assessment will be based on DGIS own responsibilities: the 

areas where DGIS invests its time, human resources and funding, including projects, 

programmes, sector support or support to national policies and plans. Clearly, the partner 

countries’ own plans, policies and programmes are the major vehicle for enhanced climate 

risk management, and conclusions and recommendations will be presented in that context. 

Activities to be carried out by external consultants 

Consultants will prepare an evaluation of climate risk management for projects, programmes, 

sector support and national policies and plans supported by DGIS in one partner country 

(Bangladesh, Bolivia or Ethiopia). 

The evaluation will include various dimensions of risk, as described above: not just direct 

physical risks to particular investments, but especially also risks to the achievement of the 

expected outcomes of DGIS support in terms of poverty alleviation, as well as risks of maladaptation. 

This evaluation will incorporate the following elements: 

An overview of climate risks in the country, including current variability and 

extremes, as well as observed climate trends and climate projections (based on 

existing knowledge); 

An assessment of the significance of these climate risks (specifically including 

climate change) for projects, programmes, sector support and national policies and 

plans supported by DGIS: 

o Identify projects, programmes, sector support and national policies and plans 

supported by DGIS to be reviewed; 

o Assess to what extent climate risks have already been factored into their 

design/execution; 

76

o Classify them according to low (green), medium (orange) and high (red) risk; 

o Zoom in on a few specific cases (prioritizing high climate risk) and identify 

how climate risk management could be improved; 

Provide initial recommendations on how to enhance climate risk management in 

DGIS development assistance in the country. Given that DGIS is one actor amongst 

many, these recommendations should be put into the perspective of the country’s 

national policies and programmes (including the PRSP), as well as cooperation with 

other bilateral and multilateral donor agencies and development Banks. 

Consultants should take note of the following: 

Bangladesh and Bolivia are both participating in the Netherlands Climate Assistance 

Programme. As far as possible take advantage of existing NCAP relationships and 

activities in these countries. 

In Bolivia, DGIS has supported national policy making on climate change. Consultants 

should gauge the effectiveness of this work in terms of climate risk management in other 

DGIS-supported programmes and activities. 

Ethiopia is participating in the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), an ongoing programme to 

which the Netherlands has already committed USD 23 million. It involves the countries in 

the Great Lake Region and the Horn of Africa, led by the Council of Ministers of Water 

Affairs - Nile-Com. Consultants should consult with NBI contacts. 

Consultants are expected to take into account the activities of national organisations and 

of other bilateral and multilateral agencies (in particular the World Bank), in order to 

avoid duplication of efforts and promote the development of standardized approaches, 

methodologies and tools for climate risk management, and to share best practices. 

Activities will comprise of: 

A number of preparation days (desk study and arranging in-country meetings); 

A number of field days (mission to respective country); 

A number of days for follow up (desk work – write up) including revision based on 

comments from steering group. 

The number of days will be agreed on an individual basis. 

Outputs 

At the start, the consultant will prepare a workplan, including tentative list of contacts and an 

estimation of the number of days to be spent on various tasks. 

The main output will be a report containing the following parts: 

1. Overview of the activities undertaken during the mission, summaries of the 

discussions and a list of persons interviewed (including position, working address, 

phone, fax, email, etc.). 

2. Climate risks, including trends and projections: 

An overview of existing evidence on current climate risks (variability and extremes), 

observed climate trends and climate projections in the country. 

77

3. An analysis of the extent to which projects, programmes, sectoral and national 

policies and plans with DGIS involvement are vulnerable to climate change, climate 

variability and extreme weather events: 

A general overview of projects, programmes, sector support and national policies and 

plans supported by DGIS. 

An identification of areas and sectors that are at risk. 

A classification of DGIS-supported projects, programmes, sectoral and national 

policies and plans within risk prone areas and sectors as follows: 

o low risk (green) 

o medium risk (orange) 

o high risk (red). 

2 or 3 high risk case studies, including specific suggestions on how to reduce climate 

risk, with a clear indication of how such risk management will improve development 

outcomes. These case studies should provide convincing stories that can be used to 

disseminate key messages about how to improve climate risk management. 

4. Conclusions and recommendations, including: 

Suggestions for concrete actions that could be taken by DGIS and/or partner countries 

to reduce climate risk within projects, programmes, sectoral and national policies and 

plans with DGIS involvement. 

Any additional findings or insights. 

ANNEXES of relevant information may be included. 

Timing 

The activities will take place between August – End of October 2006. The consultants’ draft 

mission report will be delivered by 15 October 2006. The consultant will finalise the report 

based on comments and suggestions by the project team by 30 October 2006. 

Management 

The contact person for matters related to the substance of this assignment will be Danielle 

Hirsch (Both ENDS, +31 20 623 0823, dh@bothends.org). 

The contact person for financial-administrative matters will be Ian Tellam (contact ETC, +31 

33 432 6000, ian.tellam@etcnl.nl). 

78

Annex B: Additional Details Regarding Climate Context in Ethiopia 

Current climate patterns 

Mean annual temperatures in Ethiopia vary from about 10°C over the highlands in the northwest, 

central and south-east parts of the country to about 35°C in a small zone in the northeast 

of the country (see Figure B-1). In general, the hottest period in the year is from March 

to May, while the lowest annual minimum temperatures occur over the highlands between the 

months of November and January (Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2001). 

Mean annual rainfall in Ethiopia varies from about 2000mm over some areas in the southwest 

to less than 250mm over the Afar lowlands in the northeast and Ogaden in the southeast. 

Precipitation decreases northwards and eastwards from the high rainfall zone in the southwest 

(see Figure B-1). Unlike most areas in the tropics, which experience one wet season, Ethiopia 

experiences three distinct seasons: the dry season from October to January termed Bega, the 

Belg season from February to May which provides a short rainy season for some crop 

growing parts of Ethiopia and the main rainy season for the pastoral areas in the eastern and 

southern parts, and Kremt, which is the main wet season for most parts of the country and 

extends from June to September (Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2001; Verdin et 

al, 2005). The rainfall in Ethiopia is influenced by three mechanisms: the summer monsoon 

(ITCZ), the tropical upper easterlies and the local convergence in the Red Sea coastal region 

(Conway, 2000). During the dry season the ITCZ lies to the south of Ethiopia and rainfall 

tends to only occur along the Red Sea coast. The ITCZ returns to Ethiopia in March and 

brings rain to the southern, central and eastern parts of Ethiopia, especially the highlands in 

south-western Ethiopia (Conway, 2000). This short period of rainfall is part of the Belg 

season. In May the Egyptian High strengthens and delays the northward movement of the 

ITCZ and this produces a short dry season before the start of the main rainy season, “Kremt”. 

Around June, the ITCZ continues its movement northwards and the south-west air stream 

extends over Ethiopia to produce the main wet season (Conway, 2000). This wet season lasts 

until the north-easterly continental air-stream becomes re-established in October. The rainy 

season accounts for about 70% of total annual rainfall, with this proportion varying with 

latitude: it ranges from about 60% in the south-west (at Gore) to 78% at Gondr, north of Lake 

Tana (Conway, 2000). 

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Figure B-1 Daily mean annual temperature in °C (left) and Cumulative mean annual rainfall 

in mm (right) 

Current climate variability and extremes 

Inter-annual rainfall variability is a feature of Ethiopian climate, with major droughts and 

floods having hit Ethiopia throughout its history. Figure B-2 shows the inter-annual rainfall 

variability for the country as a whole and for the northern, central and south-western areas of 

the country. From Figure B-2 we can identify some of the extreme wet and dry years that 

Ethiopia has experienced since the early 1950s. For example, the years 1961, 1964, 1967, 

1977 and 1996 were very wet, while the 1962, 1965 and 1984 years were extremely dry. 

More recently, the 2002 drought was the worst in 40 years (Verdin et al, 2005). The current 

wet season (June-August 2006) will, in contrast, be remembered as one of the wettest years in 

Ethiopia. The 2006 rainy season has led to unprecedented flooding of abnormal magnitude 

and damage (see Table B-1). This flooding was mainly caused by torrential or heavy rains 

falling for several days on the upstream highlands. These rains caused most rivers to swell 

and overflow or breach their courses, inundating the surrounding floodplains. The worst 

affected areas this year were Dire Dawa, south Omo Zone of SNNPR, and parts of Amhara, 

Oromia, Gambella, Somali and Tigray regions. Floods, however, do not only occur during the 

wet season, as widespread flooding occurred across Ethiopia during the October to February 

dry season of 1997/98, considered the wettest dry season on record (Conway, 2000). 

Table B-1. Areas and population affected/under threat by the flood disaster of August 2006. 

*Note: the affected number of population includes 15% contingency 

No Region Vulnerable Affected * 

1 Afar 28,000 4,600 

2 SNNP 106,300 44,000 

3 Amhara 47,100 47,100 

4 Oromia 61,300 21,900 

5 Tigray 122,300 2,600 

6 Dire Dawa 10,400 10,400 

7 Somali 87,000 43,200 

80

8 Gambella 62,000 26,100 

Total 524,400 199,900 

Figure B-2. Inter-annual variability of annual rainfall over Ethiopia (top left), northern 

Ethiopia (top right), Central Ethiopia (bottom left) and southwest Ethiopia (bottom right) 

expressed in normalized deviation (Source: Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2001). 

Trend analysis of annual rainfall shows that average annual rainfall remained fairly constant 

in the second half of the 20 th century when averaged over the whole country, but it declined 

in the northern and south western parts of Ethiopia and increased in central Ethiopia. A study 

by Verdin et al (2005) looked at seasonal trends in rainfall and they found that, nationally, the 

Kremt rains have been fairly consistent since the 1960s but that the Belg rains have been 

decreasing consistently since 1996. Verdin et al state that the decrease in the Belg rains may 

be part of a larger set of climate changes in the Indian Ocean basin. They suggest that warm 

SST anomalies in the southern equatorial Indian Ocean lead to anomalous circulation, which 

results in the reduction of rainfall over parts of the Greater Horn (Verdin et al, 2005). 

The impact that climate variability has on the food security of Ethiopia is illustrated in Figure 

B-3 which shows the correlation between the number of people needing food aid and national 

rainfall anomalies. 

Figure B-3. Correlation between millions needing food aid and 2-year running average 

national precipitation for March-September. 

81

Climate change projections 

The projected changes in temperature and precipitation for the Eastern Africa Region for the 

periods 2040-2069 and 2070-2099, as simulated by a range of socio-economic scenarios and 

General Circulation Models (GCMs) are shown in Figures B-4 and B-5. From these models it 

is clear that temperatures will be increasing in the future, although the extent of the 

temperature increase varies between models. For the period 2040-2069 temperatures are 

likely to increase between 1°C and 3°C, while for the period 2070-2099 the scenarios and 

models suggest temperatures increases of 2°C to 4°C, with the possibility that the increase 

may be as high as 6°C. Rainfall projections, on the other hand, are a lot less certain, with both 

increases and decreases in rainfall predicted by the different models and scenarios. For the 

period between September and May the majority of models project increases in total 

precipitation, with a maximum 30% increase for the years 2070-2099. The largest increases 

in rainfall are expected between the months of December to February, which is the dry season 

in Ethiopia. For the key rainy season months between June and August the direction of the 

changes in total precipitation are less clear. For the period 2070-2099 rainfall may increase or 

decrease by as much as 20% for the months of June, July and August. 

Figure B-4.Projected changes in temperature and precipitation for the Eastern Africa Region 

for the 2040-2069 period compared to the 1961-1990 baseline (IPCC Data Distribution 

Centre, 2005). 

Figure B-5 Projected changes in temperature and precipitation for the Eastern Africa Region 

for the 2070-2099 period compared to the 1961-1990 baseline (IPCC Data Distribution 

Centre, 2005). 

82

Climate change predictions for Ethiopia can be found in Ethiopia’s Initial National 

Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 

(UNFCCC). The climate projections were made using three equilibrium and one transient 

Global Circulation Models (GCMs): the Canadian climate centre model (CCCM), the 

Geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory’s model (GFDL), the UK Meteorological office 1989 

model (UKMO-89) and the GFDL-Transient models. The predicted temperature change for 

the three climatic seasons in Ethiopia is shown in Table B-2. 

Table B-2. Future climate projections from CCCM and GFDL for 2075 and from GFDL- 

Transient for 2070 (Source: Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2001) 

Season 

Predicted Temperature Change (°C) 

Kremt Equilibrium: 2-3.6; Transient: 0.8-2.4 

Belg Equilibrium: 2-3.6; Transient: 0.5-1.2 

Bega Equilibrium: 1.5-3.1; Transient: 0.9-1.4 

While temperature is predicted to increase in the future, the direction of the change in rainfall 

is less clear. The predictions for rainfall in Ethiopia did not manifest a systematic increase or 

decrease. Table B-3 shows the rainfall projections for the three climatic seasons in Ethiopia. 

Table B-3. Projected change in precipitation by the different GCMs (Source: Federal 

Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2001). 

Season 

Kremt (June-September) 

Belg (February – May) 

Bega (October-January) 

Projected Precipitation Change 

GFDL: 10-20% increase for areas north of 8°latitude and west 

of 41°longitude 

CCCM: increase of 50% for areas in extreme north of country 

GFDL-Transient: decrease in rainfall 

Up to 5% increase in precipitation for the southwest, south and 

southeast areas 

Decrease in rainfall for northern areas predicted by all models 

All models suggest an increase in rainfall 

An example of the impact that climate change may have on forest resources is provided in 

Figure B-6. The Holdridge Life Zone Classification model, which correlates climate indices 

with vegetation distribution, was used to predict the extent and type of forest resources over 

the whole of Ethiopia under the climate change scenarios projected by the GFDL model. This 

figure illustrates the importance of taking climate change into consideration when planning 

83

for national parks and conservation zones, as the future distribution of natural resources will 

most likely differ from present distribution. 

Figure B-6. Current (top) and changed (bottom) Holdridge Life Zones. (Source: Federal 

Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2001). 

84

Annex C: Glossary of Terms 

Adaptation: adjustment in ecological, social, or economic systems in response to actual or 

expected climatic stimuli and their effects or impacts (IPCC, 2001). 

Adaptive capacity: The ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate 

variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, 

or to cope with the consequences (IPCC, 2001). 

Climate change: Climate change refers to a statistically significant variation in either the 

mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically 

decades or longer). Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external 

forcings, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in 

land use (IPCC, 2001). 

Note, however, that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 

(UNFCCC) defines climate change as: “a change of climate which is attributed directly or 

indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is 

in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods”. The 

UNFCCC thus makes a distinction between “climate change” attributable to human activities 

altering the atmospheric composition, and “climate variability” attributable to natural causes. 

In this report we take the IPCC’s definition of climate change. 

Climate variability: Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state and other 

statistics (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all 

temporal and spatial scales beyond that of individual weather events. Variability may be due 

to natural internal processes within the climate system (internal variability), or to variations in 

natural or anthropogenic external forcing (external variability) (IPCC, 2001). 

Coping range: The variation in climatic stimuli that a system can absorb without producing 

significant impacts (IPCC, 2001). 

Disaster: A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society causing 

widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses which exceed the ability of 

the affected community or society to cope using its own resources (UNISDR terminology). 

Extreme weather event: An event that is rare within its statistical reference distribution at a 

particular place. Definitions of "rare" vary, but an extreme weather event would normally be 

as rare as or rarer than the 10th or 90th percentile. By definition, the characteristics of what is 

called "extreme weather" may vary from place to place (IPCC, 2001). 

Extreme climate event: an average of a number of weather events over a certain period of 

time, an average which is itself extreme (e.g., rainfall over a season) (IPCC, 2001). 

Hazard: A potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon or human activity that may 

cause the loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption or 

environmental degradation (UNISDR terminology). 

Mitigation: A human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse 

gases (IPCC, 2001). 

Risk: The probability of harmful consequences, or expected losses (deaths, injuries, property, 

livelihoods, economic activity disrupted or environment damaged) resulting from interactions 

85

etween natural or human-induced hazards and vulnerable conditions (UNISDR 

terminology). 

Conventionally risk is expressed by the notation: Risk = Hazards x Vulnerability. Some 

disciplines also include the concept of exposure to refer particularly to the physical aspects of 

vulnerability (UNISDR). 

Sensitivity: Sensitivity is the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or 

beneficially, by climate-related stimuli. The effect may be direct (e.g., a change in crop yield 

in response to a change in the mean, range, or variability of temperature) or indirect (e.g., 

damages caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sea level rise) 

(IPCC, 2001). 

Vulnerability: The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, 

adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is 

a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is 

exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity (IPCC, 2001). 

86

etween natural or human-induced hazards and vulnerable conditions (UNISDR 

terminology). 

Conventionally risk is expressed by the notation: Risk = Hazards x Vulnerability. Some 

disciplines also include the concept of exposure to refer particularly to the physical aspects of 

vulnerability (UNISDR). 

Sensitivity: Sensitivity is the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or 

beneficially, by climate-related stimuli. The effect may be direct (e.g., a change in crop yield 

in response to a change in the mean, range, or variability of temperature) or indirect (e.g., 

damages caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sea level rise) 

(IPCC, 2001). 

Vulnerability: The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, 

adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is 

a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is 

exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity (IPCC, 2001). 

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Poverty Reduction at Risk in Ethiopia - NCAP

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