FROM: Lisa Sorani, Manager of HR Employee Services LS -

More documents

Recommendations

Info

LOOKING FORWARD: CONCLUSIONS r • Conclusions o o o o o It is important to reiterate that while the alternative scenarios presented are quite worrisome especially when taken to the limit case, these are not the most likely future path for interest rates Investors will want to plan for the likely l evolution of the current interest t rate environment to be relatively close to the base case However, it is important to see the possible alternative ways that the current environment could unfold over time The goal is for Plan Sponsors to identify the possible negative outcomes Think about situations in terms of what are the: ♦ ♦ ♦ Known-Knows: We know interest rates are at historic lows; interest will likely increase some point in the future; Fixed Income investors face capital losses in an increasing interest rate environment; Fixed Income will provide significantly lower returns going forward than they have in the past Known-Unknowns: What we don’t know is for how long interest rates will stay low; how fast they will increase; if inflation will rise; how the Government will react to increasing debt service costs; if the Fed will favor economic growth over price stability; if the Fed will favor price stability over interest rate stability Unknown-Unknowns: By definition we don’t know all the factors that may impact Fixed Income investors, in this case you have to use your imagination for thinking of scenarios that are seemingly improbable; for example, China deciding to let their currency free float which would no longer bind them to purchasing US Treasuries Pension Consulting Alliance, Inc. ││ EBMUD Fixed Income Discussion │ 42
SECTION 3 INVESTMENT OPTIONS Pension Consulting Alliance, Inc. ││ EBMUD Fixed Income Discussion │ 43
Page 21 and 22:
M E M O R A N D U M Date: April 29,
Page 23 and 24:
Recent Investment Performance Barro
Page 25:
Additional Considerations Barrow Ha
Page 29 and 30: For example, as of the most recent
Page 31 and 32: Q1 - 2013 Preliminary Recent Invest
Page 33 and 34: Q1 - 2013 Preliminary Periods endin
Page 35: Q1 - 2013 Preliminary Fixed Income
Page 38 and 39: AGENDA ITEMS Section Tab Current In
Page 40 and 41: THE CURRENT INTEREST RATE ENVIRONME
Page 50 and 51: SECTION 2 LOOKING FORWARD Source: W
Page 52 and 53: LOOKING FORWARD: INTRODUCTION r •
Page 54 and 55: LOOKING FORWARD: POSSIBLE OUTCOMES
Page 56 and 57: POSSIBLE OUTCOMES: ALTERNATIVE SCEN
Page 80 and 81: INVESTMENT OPTIONS r • In light o
Page 82 and 83: INVESTMENT OPTION 2 r • Option 2:
Page 84 and 85: INVESTMENT OPTION 4 r • Option 4:
Page 86 and 87: INVESTMENT OPTION 4-A r • Option
Page 88 and 89: INVESTMENT OPTION 4-B r • Option
Page 90 and 91: INVESTMENT OPTION 4-C r • Option
Page 92 and 93: CONCLUSIONS r • There are a few a
Page 95 and 96: Considering a Real Return Class Eas
Page 97 and 98: Defining Inflation • Inflation is
Page 99 and 100: Expert Views 5
Page 101 and 102: Expert Views: Inflation Doves • B
Page 103 and 104: Expert Views: Inflation Doves The E
Page 105 and 106: Expert Views: Inflation Hawks • B
Page 107 and 108: Expert Views: Inflation Hawks The E
Page 109 and 110: Expert Views: Summary • Experts a
Page 111 and 112: Institutional Investor Response •
Page 113 and 114: Modeling the Real Return Class •
Page 115 and 116: Modeling the Real Return Class •
Page 117 and 118: Implementing a Real Return Class
Page 119 and 120: Appendix 25 25
Page 121 and 122: Modeling a Real Return Class SUMMAR
Page 123 and 124: A Brief Description of Global Infla
Page 125 and 126: A Brief Description of Absolute Ret
Page 127 and 128: A Brief Description of Absolute Ret
Page 129 and 130:
A Brief Description of Commodities
Page 131 and 132:
A Brief Description of Oil & Gas RE
Page 133 and 134:
A Brief Description of Oil & Gas RE
show all

FROM: Lisa Sorani, Manager of HR Employee Services LS -

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?