Santa Clara River Trail Final Master Plan - Development Services ...

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Chapter 5: Benefit Cost Analysis The benefit-cost ratio weighs the anticipated annual benefits of the pathway against the estimated construction and maintenance costs for the pathway. The estimated construction cost for this project is $7.1 million. For benefit-cost analyses, construction costs incurred from 2011 to 2015 and annual maintenance and operating costs over 30 years are adjusted to net present value (NPV). Annual benefits (2011 dollars) were calculated based on high estimates, best estimates and low estimates for the number of bicycle commuters that would use the Santa Clara River Trail, following the NCHRP Report 552 methodology for both 5 percent and 2.5 percent discount rates. Existing Count Data This analysis is informed by count data on trails in areas with similar climate and number of rideable days per year. This analysis assumes that walking and bicycling use on the Santa Clara River Trail will be similar to that of the Ballona Creek Path, which is a river path connecting to the beach at Marina del Ray, a popular recreation destination. The Los Angeles River Path is a regional trail system similar to the eventual nature of the Santa Clara River Trail. Count data are available from the Los Angeles County Bicycle Coalition’s 2009 Bicycle and Pedestrian Count and from counts conducted as part of the Culver City Bicycle and Pedestrian Master Plan (Draft 2010). Counts are shown in Table 4. Table 4. Comparison of Pedestrian and Bicycle Counts on Similar Trails Morning Peak Afternoon Peak Weekend Midday Location Ped Bike Ratio Ped Bike Ratio Ped Bike Ratio L.A. Bike Count Orange Line multi-use path Reseda & Orange Line 1244 104 12.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Woodman & Orange Line 195 83 2.3 133 49 2.7 68 77 0.9 LA River at Baum Bridge 48 110 0.4 46 164 0.3 11 95 0.1 Ballona Creek N/A N/A N/A 181 353 0.5 421 1251 0.3 Culver City Bicycle & Pedestrian Plan Ballona Creel at Overland 34 63 0.5 31 94 0.3 81 285 0.3 Ballona Creek Duquesne 36 51 0.7 N/A N/A N/A 7 107 0.1 One of the purposes of this data is to determine the typical ratio of pedestrian to bicyclists, as the NCHRP Report 552 methodology considers only the increase in bicyclists on the trail. Assuming that the ratio of pedestrians to bicyclists will remain constant provides an estimate of future pedestrian use of the trail. Table 4 shows a significantly different ratio of pedestrians to bicyclists on the Orange Line multiuse path on other, non-transit-corridor trails. The ratios from the L.A. River Trail at Baum Bridge and along Ballona Creek are similar (ranging from 0.03 to 0.01). The average of those is used in this analysis. 66 | Alta Planning + Design
Santa Clara River Trail Plan Projected Existing and New Bicyclists and Pedestrians Table 5 shows the estimated number of commuting and adult cyclists within 1 mile of the proposed trail under existing conditions and Table 6 shows the estimated number of new cyclists resulting from the pathway within that same area. Under existing conditions, the “best estimate” projection of bicycle commuters and daily adult cyclists is 93 cyclists. With the pathway, the “best estimate” for bicycle commuters and daily adult cyclists is 286 cyclists, an increase of 2.08 times above current levels. Using the methodology identified above, a “best estimate” of the number of new pedestrians attributed to the pathway is 64 pedestrians. Table 5: Daily Bicycle Commuters and Daily Adult Cyclists Under Existing Conditions Category Assumption Population within approximately one mile (1,600 meters) of the pathway alignment 1 34,447 Percentage of Commuters 46.79% Percentage of Adults 76.32% Category High Estimate Best Estimate Low Estimate Bicycle Commuters 2 108 93 78 Daily Adult Cycling Percentages 3 2.62% 1.09% 0.48% Daily Adult Cyclists 4 686 286 126 Notes: 1 Population based on the 2005-2009 American Community Survey population estimates by Census tract. 2 Calculated as the product of population and the commuting cyclist's percentage of population. 3 Calculated using the equations on Page 38 of the NCHRP Report 552: High estimate is 0.6% plus 3 times the high estimate bicycle commute percentage. Best estimate is 0.4% plus 1.2 times the best estimate bicycle commute percentage. Low Estimate is the low estimate bicycle commute rate. 4 Daily Adult Cyclists are calculated as the product of the population, percentage of adults and daily adult cycling percentages. City of Oxnard | 67
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