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11. The decline in exports to the preferential-giving destination suggests that producers would choose to export under most favored nation status. In the illustrative simulations reported here, with constant elasticity throughout and smooth substitution possibilities across the origin for intermediate good purchases and export destination sales, producers pass on cost increases to consumers. 12. The authors of this article are aware of concerns voiced by the private sector in the course of the EU review about the practical difficulty of a value content criterion for small firms and, if based on costs, its potential to force unwanted disclosure of strategic information to powerful EU buyers that would enhance their ability to squeeze rents from developing country producers. References Anson, J., O. Cadot, C. Carrere, A. Estevadeordal, J. de Melo, and B. Tumurchudur. 2005. “Rules of Origin in North-South Preferential Trading Arrangements with an Application to NAFTA.” Review of Internationa} Economics 13(3):501-17, Augier, P. M. Gasiorek, and C. Tang. 2005. “The Impact of Rules of Origin on Trade Flows.” Economic Policy 20(43}:567-24. The Case of Africa.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. Cadot. 0., C. Carrere, and V Strauss-Kahn. 2007. “Export Diversification: What’s Behind the Hump?” University of Lausanne. Switzerland. Cadot, O., J. de Melo, and A. Portugal-Perez. 2005. “Market Access and Welfare under Free Trade Agreements: the Case of Textiles under NAFTA.” World Bank Economic Review 19(3):379-405. ————. (forthcoming). “Rules of Origin for Preferential Trading Arrangements: Implications for the ASEAN FTA of EU and US Experience.” Journal of Economic Integration. Cadot, 0., J, de Melo, and E. Pondard. 2006. “Evaluating the Consequences of a Shift to a Value-added Method for Determining Origin in the European Union’s GSP Preferential Scheme.” Report prepared for the European Commission, Brussels. Cadot. 0., A. Estevadeordal. and A, Suwa-Eisenmann. 2006. “Rules of Origin as Export Subsidies.” In 0. Cadot eds.. The Origin of Goods: Rules of Origin in Regional Trade Agreements. London: Oxford University Press. 17 Trade & Industry <strong>Monitor</strong> Baldwin, R. 2006. “Managing the Noodle Bowl: The Fragility of East Asian Regionalism.” CEPR Discussion Paper 5561. Centre for Economic Policy Research, London. Cadot, 0., C. Carrere, J. de Melo, and B. Tumurchudur. 2006. “Product Specific Rules of Origin in EU and US Preferential Trading Arrangements: an Assessment.” World Trade Review 5(2): 199-224. Brenton. P. 2006. “Notes on Rules of Origin with Implications for Regional Integration in South East Asia.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. Brenton. P., and H. Imagawa. 2004. “Rules of Origin, Trade and Customs.” In L. de Sokol, and J. Wulf eds., Customs Modernization Handbook. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Brenton, P, and M. Manchin. 2003. “Making EU Trade Agreements Work: the Role of Rules of Origin.” The World Economy 26{5):755-69. Cadot, 0.. A. Estevadeordal. A. Suwa-Eisenmann, and T. Verdier eds. 2006. The Origin of Goods: Rules of Origin in Regional Trade Agreements. London: Oxford University Press. Carrere, C.. and J. de Melo. 2006. ‘Are Different Rules of Origin Equally Costly? Estimates from NAFTA.” In 0. Cadot eds., The Origin of Goods: Rules of Origin in Regional Trade Agreements. London: Oxford University Press. Estevadeordal. A. 2000. “Negotiating Preferential Market Access: the Case of NAFTA.” Journal of World Trade Wl):141-6(>. Brenton. P. and C. Ozden. 2005. “Trade Preferences for Apparel and the Role of Rules of Origin: Estevadeordal. A., and K. Suominen. 2006. “Mapping Rules of Origin Around the World.” In Why OECD countries should reform Rules of Origin
Trade Policy O. Cadot eds.. The Origin of Goods: Rules of Origin in Regional Trade Agreements. London: Oxford University Press. Francois, J., B. Hoekman, and M. Manchin. 2006. “Preference Erosion and Multilateral Trade 18 Trade & Industry <strong>Monitor</strong> Liberalization.” World Bank Economic Review 20(2): 197-216. Hansen, B. 2000. “Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation.” Econometrica 6S(3):575-603.
Page 1 and 2: TIPS T R A D E & I N D U S T R Y M
Page 3 and 4: TIPS Executive director: Stephen ha
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Page 8 and 9: Table 1: EU and U.S. Examples of Re
Page 10 and 11: Table 3: Preferences and Utilizatio
Page 12 and 13: The third result implies that the s
Page 14 and 15: where “NAFTA markup” is the per
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Page 18 and 19: in a multiregional trade model. Des
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Page 26 and 27: depending on whether or not the dat
Page 28 and 29: Although these three studies examin
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Page 32 and 33: OECD data, Gurgel et al. (2006) sho
Page 34 and 35: The credibility of CGE models will
Page 36 and 37: 9th Annual Conference on Global Eco
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Page 40 and 41: 1991-2004 when South Africa’s per
Page 42 and 43: of clothing and textiles 14 . These
Page 44 and 45: will need to be embodied in new wel
Page 46 and 47: Second, the constraints imposed by
Page 48 and 49: Edwards, L. and Lawrence, R. (2006)
Page 50 and 51: environmental policy 45 Biofuels, a
Page 52 and 53: By 2011 around 20% of Brazilian bio
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Page 62 and 63: The low levels of modern (commercia
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15 World Bank, world development in
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environmental policy 69 Climate cha
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individual African countries are re
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Table 3: Fossil fuel production and
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The re-injection process is estimat
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References 1 IPCC, 2005, IPCC Speci
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food policy 79 Rising food prices:
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But food prices have risen since th
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9. The Medium-term Response Rising
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food policy 85 The World Food Situa
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Figure 1: World cereal production,
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trade liberalization and the integr
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Supply and demand changes do not fu
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Figure 9: Brazil: Ethanol and sugar
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Great technological strides are exp
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Figure 12: Modeling the actual pric
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Figure 14: Changes in the Global Hu
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4. The acute risks facing the poor
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OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-
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105 10. Currently, the Monitor is d
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